2022 MLB Futures Betting: MVP Odds & Predictions
With negotiations still ongoing, Major League Baseball is getting closer to striking a deal. With the 2022 season’s length still uncertain, we do know that there will be a season. At the end of that season, there will be an AL and an NL MVP crowned. Rather than listing a few players to suggest throwing a few dollars on, we’re going to hypothetically say we have $1000 to spend on each of the AL and NL MVP futures. If your budget is larger or smaller, just change the unit to fit accordingly. Here are some of the top players from each league and their MVP Odds.
Please Note: All odds are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
NL MVP Odds
Juan Soto +350
Fernando Tatis +350
Ronald Acuña Jr. +900
Mookie Betts +1000
Bryce Harper +1000
Trea Turner +1500
Christian Yelich +3000
Austin Riley +3000
Nolan Arenado +3000
Ozzie Albies +3000
Pete Alonso +3000
Tyler O'Neill +3500
Jonathan India +3500
Jesse Winker +3500
Starling Marte +4000
Max Muncy +4000
J.T. Realmuto +4000
Justin Turner +4000
Manny Machado +4000
Joey Votto +4500
Rhys Hoskins +4500
Paul Goldschmidt +5000
Cody Bellinger +6000
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How to Spend Your NL Bankroll
Fernando Tatis Jr. +350: $500
The two chalk picks and shortest odds in the NL are Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. When it comes to these top tier players I’m fading the ones on a weaker team if it's a substantial difference. With the Padres over/unders being 91.5 to the Nationals 68.5, I think it’s a much safer play to roll with Tatis who smashed 42 home runs last season in just 130 games, along with 25 stolen bases. Perception matters for these types of awards, and Tatis’s overall marketability and swag that he brings to Major League Baseball will certainly factor into voters' decisions if all else is equal. Tatis can win the award legitimately on his play alone. He’s on a much better team than Soto and is one of the few players that can help save baseball.
Mookie Betts +1000: $200
With the down year that Mookie had last season, you would hope that his odds would’ve been a bit more lucrative. I still condone putting a decent portion of your bankroll here on the basis that on top of his elite bat, Betts has the most electrifying outfield glove in the league putting up defensive highlights that other players simply can’t replicate. Betts already has an MVP to his name and two runner-ups coming as he enters his ninth season as a 29-year old. Year after year he has put up numbers that put him in the MVP conversation, this year will be no different.
Pete Alonso +3000: $100
Alonso burst onto the scene in 2019 setting the rookie record for home runs with 53. He may never touch that mark again yet can still win an MVP with a well-rounded season on a Mets team that is +500 to win the NL Pennant. With Scherzer and DeGrom leading the way, the Mets will just need a few clutch at-bats in their starts to come away with victories which always boosts odds of winning regular season awards. If Alonso can continue cutting down on the strikeouts (183 in 2019, 127 in 2021) and become a more disciplined hitter, the sky's the limit.
Francisco Lindor +3000: $100
Along with Alonso, Lindor deserves consideration as well. His +3000 odds are a steal and are certainly a result of his down year in 2021. At the beginning of the season last season, Lindor was just +1200 to win the NL MVP. He hasn’t put together a solid season for his caliber since 2019 when as a Cleveland Indian, but ever since he had that three home run game with the Giancarlo Stanton drama, it feels like Lindor has turned the page as a Met. With the Mets an actual contender this season, he’ll go back to his old Cleveland form and be in the MVP conversation.
Nolan Arenado +3000: $50
With the Cardinals over/under set at 86, that means they are likely to be a fringe playoff team. With a big year from Arenado, he could be the reason they rise to the top of the AL Central. His 34/105/.255/.312 line from 2021 is a “down year” for his career. Arenado had five consecutive years with 37+ home runs, and 110+ RBIs, and batted no worse than .287 for those seasons. The inflation of Coors Field may play a part, but he also has more protection and depth in this lineup than he ever did in Colorado.
Cody Bellinger +6000: $50
It’s been a rough couple of years for Bellinger, but at +6000, it’s worth putting a small percentage of your bankroll on him. Bellinger smashed 47 home runs to go with 115 RBIs, a .307 batting average, and an eye-popping .406 on-base percentage in 2019 when he won the NL MVP as a 23-year-old. His .165 average in 95 games last season makes it feel like he’s 40 years old now rather than going into his 26-year old season. If and when Bellinger finds something and gets his confidence back, he’ll be off to the races because he’s far too talented to continue on his current trajectory.
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AL MVP Odds
Shohei Ohtani +300
Mike Trout +350
Aaron Judge +500
Rafael Devers +2000
Jose Ramirez +2000
Bo Bichette +2000
Wander Franco +2000
Yordan Alvarez +2200
Corey Seager +2200
Brandon Lowe +2500
Jose Altuve +2800
Luis Robert +3000
Matt Olson +3000
Kyle Tucker +3000
Tim Anderson +3500
Jose Abreu +3500
Alex Bregman +3500
Marcus Semien +4000
George Springer +4000
Xander Bogaerts +4000
Giancarlo Stanton +4500
Byron Buxton +4500
Salvador Perez +5000
Randy Arozarena +5000
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How to Spend Your AL Bankroll
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +400: $600
I’m opting to take a pass on Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. The injury proneness and fact that the Angels just can’t seem to get into the playoffs have me going for the extra point with Vlad Guerrero Jr. Vlad’s upside (at least as a hitter) is higher than Trout and Ohtani’s. You can argue that he’s currently the most talented hitter in baseball right now. Guerrero led the league in home runs (48), on-base percentage (.401) slugging (.601), OPS (.1002), and total bases (363). Without Ohtani excelling as a pitcher, Guerrero probably wins the MVP last season, and he’ll certainly put the pressure on Ohtani to repeat to stay ahead of him in the voting.
Rafael Devers +2000: $100
Devers has quietly become one of the league's best hitters and was only 11th in the MVP voting last year despite hitting 38 home runs, 113 RBIs, and hitting .279. Devers plays for a team that will most likely make the playoffs, and Fenway Park always boosts the ‘old statline. Devers is just 25-years-old so it’s not crazy to think he can continue to build upon his already impressive numbers. If Devers can become a bit less of a defensive liability, his odds would probably go up a bump as well, because his hitting talents are just about right there to deserve consideration.
Yordan Alvarez +2200: $100
With Altuve getting older, George Springer has gone, and Correa is currently a free agent, it’s time for Yordan Alvarez to take the reins as the main run producer in the middle of the Astros lineup. Alvarez played at an MVP level when he won Rookie of the year in 2019. In just 87 games he smacked 27 home runs and knocked in 78 runs. At that pace over 162 games, Alvarez would have 50 home runs and 145 RBIs. While that may be unrealistic (and this year probably won’t go for 162 games) Alvarez can certainly get in the 40-120 area this season, which would firmly put him in the discussion at a decent price of +2200 odds.
Jose Abreu +3500: $100
Jose Abreu won the AL MVP in the covid-shortened 2020 season when he had an RBI per game in a 60 game season. He hasn’t quite produced to that level in any of his regular full seasons but is always a power threat in the middle of the White Sox lineup. The Sox are no longer a lower-middling squad and have a 91.5 over/under this season. Abreu is part of the plan for this team to be a title contender in 2022. If he can find a 60 game run as hot as the one he had in 2019, he won’t need to do too much for the other 90 games to be a legitimate MVP contender.
Giancarlo Stanton +4500: $50
Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t and probably won’t sniff the 59 home runs he hit in 2017 when he won the NL MVP with the Marlins. The fact is when Giancarlo is seeing the ball no one can be hotter, and no one hits it harder as the stat cast will tell you about his insane exit velocities. His streakiness and injuries have kept him from being an All-Star with the Yankees, but he built his 35 home runs and 97 RBIs (139 games) on a few mega-hot streaks. Stanton’s slumps were equally cold. If he can just eliminate the sheer length of his slumps and avoid injury, Stanton should be back in the 40/100 area and would pay off nicely for his backers.
Randy Arozarena +5000: $50
Arozarena’s numbers aren’t super impressive, but his trajectory in a short time and incredible confidence in clutch situations prove that Arozarena is going to come out firing in 2022. In just two postseasons he’s hit 11 home runs in 96 at-bats. The Ray’s will set up their lineup so he’s the one clearing the ducks off the pond. If he can continue hitting in the clutch, Arozarena should have a ton of RBIs this season, and will most likely be the main run-producer on a competitive Rays team along with Brandon Lowe.
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