Which Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Should You be Selling High?
Looking at some sell-high fantasy baseball trade candidates at the start of May.
After looking at some fantasy baseball sell-high trade candidates among hitters, let's do the same for pitchers.
We'll use fantasy scoring from ESPN (starters and relievers) to identify some trade candidates.
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Starting Pitchers
Most of the top-end fantasy pitchers are guys who could definitely be in the top 10 by the end of the season, so we'll have to do a bit deeper digging to come up with a sell-high list.
The top-scoring starter right now is Nathan Eovaldi, and he's the most likely guy in the top 10 right now to drop from that list before the end of the season.
Eovaldi has made seven starts, going 2-2 with a 2.11 earned run average so far. He's allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 30 hits and three walks, while striking out 46 batters over 42 2/3 innings. It's wild that he's walked as many hitters as he's allowed homers.
Eovaldi has a career 4.02 ERA, which isn't too shabby for fantasy purposes. He's an innings eater, and averages 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA is likely to regress as the season rolls along, as is his strikeout mark.
He might be a better trade asset in deeper leagues, but desperate enough standard league fantasy owners wouldn't mind trading for Eovaldi. Now would be the time to capitalize on the 35-year-old, as it seems likely that his fantasy value couldn't get much higher ever.
Hunter Brown and Nick Pivetta are also in the top 10 right now. I think both are capable of sticking in that list for the remainder of the season, but some would call them sell-high candidates, so I'll briefly go over them.
Brown has a 4-1 record and 1.22 ERA across 37 innings. He's allowed six runs (five earned) on 24 hits and seven walks, while punching out 40 batters.
He's just 26 years old, and has improved over his brief MLB career. His strikeout mark is actually 0.1 lower than his career mark. While Brown's ERA is going to regress eventually, I think this is his breakout season, so I'd much rather keep him than try to sell high.
I highlighted Pivetta before the season as a potential fantasy sleeper. He's lived up to that title so far. In six starts, he has a 5-1 record and 1.78 ERA across 35 1/3 innings. Pivetta has allowed seven runs on 21 hits and eight walks, while striking out 39 batters.
His strikeout mark is actually 0.1 lower than his career mark as well. Pivetta will see his ERA regress as the season progresses, but the wins on a good Padres' team should keep coming. I'd much rather stick with Pivetta and enjoy his standout season than trade him now
Jesus Luzardo is a lot like Pivetta in that he's excelling in his first year with a new team. It shouldn't be a surprise that he's a better asset on the Phillies than he was on the Marlins, but I don't think he'll remain in the upper echelon of fantasy starters all season.
Luzardo has made six starts, going 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA. He's allowed 10 runs (seven earned) on 29 hits and 10 walks. Luzardo has 41 strikeouts.
He has a career 4.12 ERA, so big regression is likely coming in that stat. Luzardo's strikeout rate is 0.4 higher than his career mark, so I'd expect a little regression there as well.
There's also an injury history to worry about. It all adds up to a sell-high fantasy pitcher in my eyes.
Tyler Mahle is another sell-high fantasy starting pitcher. He's just outside the top 10 right now, despite barely being on any fantasy radars coming into the season.
Across seven starts, Mahle is 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA. He's allowed five runs on 23 hits and 14 walks, while striking out 32 batters over 37 2/3 innings.
Mahle has a career 4.15 ERA, so regression is coming there eventually. His strikeout rate is actually down 1.8 from his career mark, so some improvement could come in that department.
I'm more looking at Mahle regressing over the course of the season, and then worrying a bit about his injury-riddled past. He made eight starts between 2023-24, so burnout this season is also possible. I'd look to trade Mahle now in all formats, even if his standard league value isn't all that good.
Tylor Megill and Andrew Heaney are more deep-league trade assets, but we'll discuss them a bit to end the starting pitcher section.
Megill has a 1.74 ERA across six starts and 31 innings. He's 3-2 and has 39 strikeouts so far. Megill has allowed 10 runs (six earned) on 23 hits and 12 walks.
He has a career 4.33 ERA, and hasn't made over 25 starts in a single season. His strikeout rate is up a full two Ks over his career mark. Megill has been great to start the season, but I highly doubt it continues for too much longer, so I'd look to sell high on him now.
Heaney is 2-2 but with a 2.50 ERA over his first six starts for the Pirates. He has covered 36 innings, allowing 10 runs on 23 hits and nine walks, while striking out 31 batters.
His career ERA is 4.39, so regression is likely coming in a hurry for that stat. Heaney's strikeout rate is down 1.6 from his career mark, so some improvement could come in that stat, but it probably wouldn't be enough to overcome a dip in ERA.
He's a better trade asset in deeper leagues, like Megill, but I'd look to capitalize now instead of hoping his hot stretch of pitching continues for the entire season.
Relief Pitchers
Andres Munoz is the top fantasy reliever right now. I think he's in his breakout season, but I'll go over him a bit because he's a sell-high candidate to some.
Munoz has appeared in 15 games so far, earning a win and 11 saves. He hasn't allowed a run yet, and has surrendered just five hits and six walks over 15 innings. He's struck out 19 batters already.
He'll eventually give up runs, and might not end the season as the No. 1 fantasy reliever, but I like him to finish in the top 10, so I'd be more inclined to keep him on my roster than try to sell high now.
Jeff Hoffman is the No. 4 fantasy reliever, and it's kind of come out of nowhere, especially for him being on a so-so Toronto team.
Across 13 appearances so far, Hoffman has a 3-0 record and six saves. He's got a 1.17 ERA over 15 1/3 innings after allowing two runs on eight hits and a walk. He's also struck out 22 batters.
Hoffman has a career 4.70 ERA, and only has 18 total saves in his career, so it's not like he's super accustomed to this role. His strikeout rate is similar to the past couple seasons, but still way above his career 9.3 mark (it's 12.9 this season).
Toronto isn't the best of teams to support a fantasy closer, and he won't keep racking up this many wins. Hoffman probably has more deep-league value, but I'd bet you could trade him in a standard league too.
Emilio Pagan is the only other top-10 fantasy reliever who I could really see falling outside the top 10 the rest of the season, and he's a waiver wire option more than a trade asset right now, so until he really establishes himself as the closer in Cincy, I'll avoid going into much detail for him as a trade asset.