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Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

SP • Philadelphia Phillies Proj Rank 113 Actual 111 168 ADP • Trade Value
IP ERA W-L K/BB K/9 WHIP FSP
82.26.213-587/299.51.547.16
Compared to same point last season
49.26.161-752/169.41.51

Aaron Nola | Fantasy Outlook

Aaron Nola's mid-season slump reaches critical levels as ratios balloon

Nola has been in a tailspin lately, posting a 15.37 ERA and 2.44 WHIP over his last seven days, punctuated by a disastrous outing where he surrendered eight runs in just 4.1 innings. The second-place Phillies, who sit at 49-38 in the NL East, have seen their veteran right-hander struggle to find consistency despite his established role as a mid-rotation staple. While he remains healthy and active on the roster, the local boo birds have been out as his season ERA has climbed to a concerning 6.24.

Under the hood, there are signs that this stretch is a massive outlier compared to his career norms, such as his 3.47 ERA in 2022 or 3.78 mark in 2024. Our models expect a significant correction, projecting a 4.15 ERA for the rest of the season, which suggests that positive regression is coming if he can regain his command. He is still missing bats at a high rate with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings, but his 1.55 WHIP is currently far too high to be sustainable for a pitcher of his caliber.

Looking at the week ahead, Nola is scheduled for a road start this Sunday against the Royals. He will be facing Luinder Avila, who carries a shaky 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, making this a theoretically favorable matchup for a bounce-back performance. However, with Nola giving up 21 earned runs over his last 27.4 innings, fantasy managers should treat him with extreme caution until he shows he can limit the damage. Sit.

Updated 3 days ago

Aaron Nola Fantasy

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DATE OPP INN PC K WLK ER DEC ERA WHIP PTS
06/29 PIT 4.1 86 5 2 7 LOSS 6.21 1.54 -3
06/24 @WAS 5.0 86 5 2 2 N/A 5.74 1.49 11
06/18 NYM 5.0 97 6 1 2 N/A 5.89 1.53 10
06/13 @MIL 4.2 85 3 2 3 N/A 6.06 1.52 5
06/07 CHW 4.1 98 4 4 5 N/A 5.86 1.45 3
06/02 SD 5.0 95 8 0 2 N/A 5.55 1.39 14
05/26 @SD 6.0 80 5 0 2 WIN 5.72 1.45 22
05/20 CIN 5.0 77 5 0 4 LOSS 6.04 1.56 2
05/15 @PIT 3.2 80 2 3 6 N/A 5.91 1.55 -1
05/09 COL 4.2 94 4 2 3 N/A 5.14 1.48 6
05/04 @MIA 6.0 94 5 0 0 WIN 5.06 1.45 23
04/26 @ATL 4.2 101 6 3 6 LOSS 6.03 1.56 -1
04/20 @CHC 4.1 88 5 4 5 LOSS 5.06 1.46 -1
04/14 CHC 5.0 87 5 2 3 N/A 4.03 1.30 7
04/08 @SF 6.0 84 3 1 3 LOSS 3.63 1.10 7
04/03 @COL 6.1 95 9 1 1 WIN 3.18 1.15 26
03/28 TEX 5.0 91 7 2 3 N/A 5.40 1.40 11
Totals: 82.21518872957 139
Fantasy Chart Loading...
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2015 PHI 13 77.2 1117 68 19 0 6-2 3.59 1.2 7.9 188
2016 PHI 20 111.0 1796 121 29 0 6-9 4.95 1.32 9.8 263
2017 PHI 27 168.0 2665 184 49 0 12-11 3.54 1.21 9.9 451
2018 PHI 33 210.0 3212 224 58 0 17-6 2.4 0.99 9.6 632
2019 PHI 34 200.0 3332 229 80 0 12-7 3.92 1.28 10.3 500
2020 PHI 11 65.1 1060 84 23 0 5-5 3.44 1.13 11.6 176
2021 PHI 32 182.1 2971 223 39 0 9-9 4.59 1.12 11 427
2022 PHI 35 219.0 3256 246 29 0 12-14 3.45 0.98 10.1 547
2023 PHI 36 212.0 3427 225 49 0 15-10 4.33 1.16 9.6 512
2024 PHI 34 202.0 3275 205 52 0 14-9 3.74 1.22 9.1 496
2025 PHI 18 96.1 1599 100 28 0 5-10 5.89 1.33 9.3 159
2026 PHI 17 82.2 1518 87 29 0 3-5 6.21 1.54 9.5 139
ON PACE 30 150 2763 158 52 0 5-9 6.21 1.54 9.5 252
3-YEAR AVG 29 169 2767 177 43 0 11-10 4.39 1.22 9.4 389
Career 310 1812.1 29228 1996 484 0 0-0 4.02 1.18 9.9

Nola Projection

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ERA WHIP QS WINS SO K/BB K/9 IP LOSSES PC FPTS
2.662 1.487 0.1 0.4 5.1 3.2 9.2 5.0 0.3 71 10.425
ERA WHIP QS WINS SO K/BB K/9 IP LOSSES PC FPTS
2.662 1.487 0.1 0.4 5.1 3.2 9.2 5.0 0.3 71 10.425
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OWN START TRENDS

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Depth Chart

Philadelphia Phillies

Roster Breakdown
NAME OWN START
J.T. Realmuto 20% 13%
NAME OWN START
Bryce Harper 100% 95%
Alec Bohm 38% 23%
Aidan Miller 4% 0%
NAME OWN START
Trea Turner 97% 84%
Bryson Stott 61% 40%
Edmundo Sosa 1% 0%
NAME OWN START
Kyle Schwarber 100% 95%
Brandon Marsh 94% 83%
Justin Crawford 12% 8%
Adolis Garcia 7% 2%
NAME OWN START
Zack Wheeler 100% 66%
Cristopher Sanchez 100% 65%
Jesus Luzardo 99% 85%
Aaron Nola 47% 27%
Andrew Painter 9% 4%
NAME OWN START
Jhoan Duran 100% 97%
Brad Keller 11% 2%
Orion Kerkering 9% 8%
Jose Alvarado 2% 2%
Alan Rangel 1% 1%

Team Rankings

AVG
.238
20th
R
400
15th
HR
120
5th
RBI
386
16th
SB
67
11th
OBP
.304
28th
SLG
.406
13th
OPS
.710
20th
W
50
5th
SV
26
9th
ERA
4.11
12th
WHIP
1.31
15th
QS
37
5th
TeamW-LWin %GBRSRA
BravesBraves52-35.598-422325
PhilliesPhillies50-39.5623400390
MarlinsMarlins48-42.5335.5409386
NationalsNationals46-44.5117.5480465
MetsMets36-53.40417352414

Team Stats

PlayerGPABRHHRRBISBAVGO/S
J.T. Realmuto6220823426273.202  
Rafael Marchán288059260.112  
Garrett Stubbs172474010.167  
PlayerGPABRHHRRBISBAVGO/S
Bryce Harper89314568620575.274  
PlayerGPABRHHRRBISBAVGO/S
Bryson Stott83291347174016.244  
Edmundo Sosa4813517305242.222  
Dylan Moore151230001.000  
PlayerGPABRHHRRBISBAVGO/S
Alec Bohm84309307011461.227  
PlayerGPABRHHRRBISBAVGO/S
Trea Turner873606086103116.239  
PlayerGPABRHHRRBISBAVGO/S
Brandon Marsh84313509715468.310  
Adolis García6723121457213.195  
Derek Hill6711317276137.239  
Justin Crawford83253266421910.253  
Gabriel Rincones Jr.154859250.188  
Felix Reyes123826120.158  
Steward Berroa6701010.143  
Otto Kemp132502000.080  
PlayerGPABRHHRRBISBAVGO/S
Kyle Schwarber86320558230552.256  
PlayerGPWLSVIPSOERAWHIPO/S
Cristopher Sánchez181030117.01362.001.09  
Jesús Luzardo18740103.11253.751.27  
Aaron Nola1735085.0876.041.49  
Zack Wheeler1381080.0842.360.94  
Andrew Painter1418065.0537.061.66  
Taijuan Walker514022.2179.132.07  
Seth Johnson910010.1136.101.55  
Nolan Hoffman30004.223.861.93  
PlayerGPWLSVIPSOERAWHIPO/S
Jhoan Duran32132129.2451.520.94  
Brad Keller3121330.1314.151.35  
José Alvarado3733131.0436.101.68  
Orion Kerkering3760135.1402.551.13  
Tim Mayza3522040.2402.881.01  
Lou Trivino40005.0614.402.80  
Jonathan Bowlan2920027.1353.291.17  
Zach Pop70007.163.681.09  
Tanner Banks2604027.2315.861.92  
Max Lazar30004.044.500.75  
Kyle Backhus1510013.2135.931.39  
Alan Rangel401016.0173.381.31  
Chase Shugart2620029.0344.971.35  

Owned Breakdown

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Schedule

DATE OPP SCORE MATCHUP
06-29 PITL 7-11Aaron Nola
Braxton Ashcraft
06-30 PITW 8-0Cristopher Sanchez
Bubba Chandler
07-01 PITW 10-6Zack Wheeler
Paul Skenes
07-02 PITL 1-6Alan Rangel
Jared Jones
07-04 @KCW 1-6Jesus Luzardo
Michael Wacha
07-05 @KC03:00 EDTAaron Nola
Luinder Avila

Player Timeline

Jun 29th

Aaron Nola Booed After Phillies Blow 5-0 Lead, Exits Tied with Bases ...

Jun 2nd

Phillies Reinstated Aaron Nola; Nolan Hoffman Optioned to Triple-A

May 29th

Phillies Make Roster Moves Before Game vs. Dodgers: Berroa and Hoffman ...

May 4th

Jhoan Duran Set to Return Tuesday from IL, Don Mattingly Says

Mar 17th

Aaron Nola Set for Final Spring Training Start Before Phillies Regular-Season ...

Mar 16th

Breaking: Aaron Nola Named Team Italy Starter vs. Venezuela, Replacing ...

Mar 15th

Cervelli Confirms Lorenzen to Start Italy-Venezuela Semifinal; Nola ...

Mar 14th

Italy advances to WBC semifinals after 8–6 win over Puerto Rico; Lorenzen ...

Mar 11th

Aaron Nola to Start Tonight for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic ...

Mar 8th

Italy beats Great Britain 7–4 to move to 2–0; Nola set vs Mexico, ...

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Paul Goldschmidt NYY 1B -5.5
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