2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts: Risky Starting Pitchers

Let's wrap up a fantasy baseball series on draft steals and busts by going over starting pitchers. We'll go over busts first, then cover steals in a separate story.

I have five pitchers for you in this article, but could have listed several others. I tried to avoid pitchers who should fall in the ADP rankings due to injuries.

Here are the other positions we've covered so far: relief pitchers (steals and busts), second basemen (steals and busts), first basemen (steals and busts), catchers (steals and busts) outfielders (steals and busts), shortstops (steals and busts) and third basemen (steals and busts).

Fantasy baseball average draft position data can be found on FantasySP. Draft Genius now has custom head-to-head scoring options and on demand AI expert help for every pick.

Chris Sale - Atlanta Braves

Sale is the top-drafted fantasy starting pitcher who I have as a potential draft steal. He's going 11th among SP (not including Shohei Ohtani) and sits around pick 37.

Sale was great last year, but health again held him back some. He made 21 appearances and covered 125 2/3 innings. Sale was 7-5 with a 2.58 earned run average, while striking out 165 batters.

He's one of the best fantasy pitchers in baseball when healthy, but injuries are just too prevalent with him to trust him with such an early pick. If Sale stayed healthy all year, he'd probably be a draft steal from that ADP, but it's just too risky in my eyes.

If he falls a round or more, closer to pick 50, that's when I'd feel a bit more comfortable taking him, as you don't miss out on quite as good a player.

Freddy Peralta - New York Mets

Peralta is the 12th starting pitcher off draft boards, going around pick 39 on average.

Peralta is transitioning from Milwaukee to New York, which can be a factor in performance. He's also coming off a career-best season, so some regression could be coming.

In 33 starts, Peralta was 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA - he has a career 3.59 ERA. He had 204 punchouts over 176 2/3 innings. He's in a tougher division now, and I don't see him faring quite as well in 2026.

I understand his ADP based on last year's numbers, but I simply don't think he's going to reach that level in 2026. Unless he falls a round or more, I'd prefer to skip Peralta in fantasy drafts this year.

Framber Valdez - Detroit Tigers

Valdez is the 14th pitcher off draft boards, going near pick 52 right now.

Valdez is also on a new team, moving from the Astros to the Tigers this offseason. He made 31 starts last year, going 13-11 with a 3.66 ERA. Valdez struck out 187 batters over 192 innings.

He's been a solid fantasy asset for several seasons now, and while he's joining a good team, he's on the back nine of his career now. At 32 years old now, I'd be expecting regression, not a career season.

His ADP is fair based on his past stats and current situation, but something just tells me to avoid him in 2026. I see regression from past seasons and him failing to live up to previous campaigns.

Cole Ragans - Kansas City Royals

Ragans is the 17th starting pitcher off draft boards. He's going near pick 61 on average.

He was great in 2024, but was a bust in 2025. A lot of that had to do with him only making 13 starts, but another issue was that his ERA jumped to 4.67.

He was 3-3 over his 13 starts and covered 61 2/3 innings. Ragans struck out 98 batters, which is still a great mark per innings pitched.

Most are expecting him to bounce back, but what if he sticks at his ERA over a fully healthy season? He'll have trouble living up to his draft stock, so I'd be happier to skip him in drafts, unless he fell a couple rounds.

Joe Ryan - Minnesota Twins

Ryan is going around pick 57 in drafts so far. That makes him the 16th starting pitcher off draft boards.

Ryan is already dealing with an injury issue this season, and that could affect him all year. He's only reached 30 appearances in one season, so he's typically missed at least a couple starts.

Last year was the one season he made 30 starts. In 31 appearances, Ryan went 13-10 and had a 3.42 ERA over 171 innings. He struck out 194 batters along the way.

I'm always skeptical of drafting/rostering pitchers who are dealing early-season injuries. It never seems to work out well. Ryan could be a steal if he stays healthy all year, but I see him having a better chance to bust in 2026, so he makes this list for me.