Fantasy Baseball Outfield Draft Busts for 2026

I just wrapped up the first story of a new fantasy baseball series that will highlight draft steals and busts at each position. We looked at outfield draft steals first, and now will go over some draft busts.

I'll provide explanations of my picks at every position. Keep checking back for more!

More fantasy baseball average draft position data can be found on FantasySP. Draft Genius now has custom head-to-head scoring options and on demand AI expert help for every pick.

Corbin Carroll - Arizona Diamondbacks 

Carroll is the fourth fantasy outfielder on the ADP list, going around pick 11 on average so far. He was the No. 5 fantasy OF in 2025, but is dealing with an injury already.

The injury is not expected to derail his season, and it might not cost him many games, if any at all. It's the type of injury that could affect his power, and lead to a regression from past years.

He missed time in 2025 and the early injury concern isn't great heading into 2026. Carroll's numbers bounced back from a down 2024, but they were still lower than the ones he posted in 2023.

Carroll flashed more pop to offset a lower average and on-base percentage, but his injury this year could drop his power. He's just become too risky a pick for me around his current ADP - we'll see if he drops over time.

Kyle Tucker - Los Angeles Dodgers

Tucker is the fifth outfielder off draft boards, going around pick 11 as well.

Tucker is one of the best hitters in the MLB, and he just joined the best team in baseball, so why is he here? Availability matters a lot in fantasy baseball, and he just hasn't been healthy the past couple years.

Tucker played 78 games in 2024, then 136 in 2025. His results at the plate last season weren't great, and throwing that on top of some availability issues, I just don't think Tucker is worth near a first-round pick.

I like him better around pick 20, and then he would have enough space to move up a bit if he stays healthy. I think there's several better fantasy options being taken after him in fantasy drafts.

Yordan Alvarez - Houston Astros

Alvarez is the 10th outfielder on the list, going around pick 33 on average.

Alvarez is in the same boat as Tucker, but worse off after getting in just 48 games a season ago. He still had pretty solid numbers when healthy, and he's an elite power threat when out there.

Even at a bit lower ADP, Alvarez is still a risk because of his history of missed games. He's a pretty big risk vs. reward pick, but it'd be tough for me to treat him as a top fantasy outfielder, so I'm labeling him as a better bust candidate.

If you can land him later than pick 33, then the odds shift a bit in your favor. I'm hoping for a fully healthy season for each player, but it's just too big of a risk with Alvarez for that high of a draft pick.

Pete Crow-Armstrong - Chicago Cubs

Crow-Armstrong is the No. 13 outfielder, sitting around pick 48 on average so far.

PCA was a fantasy darling early last season, but he faded a good bit down the stretch, and barely had a higher average and OBP than in his rookie season. He broke out as a power threat, and stolen bases helped him to good fantasy results.

With high strikeout totals and low average and OBP marks, Crow-Armstrong just isn't worth a pick that early. Sure, he could improve again, but I haven't seen enough from him to take him in the top-50 picks.

Again, if he falls a bit in your draft, that creates some fantasy draft value to take advantage of, so don't write PCA off completely. I just think he's more likely to bust near his ADP than he is to exceed it.

George Springer - Toronto Blue Jays

Springer is down at OF18 and going near pick 71 on average.

Springer was the No. 4 fantasy outfielder a season ago, so many might see this as a draft steal chance. I disagree. 

The 36-year-old hit .309 and got on base at a .399 clip last season, but has a career .266 average and .353 OBP. Springer had a .220 average and .303 OBP in 2024.

If he regresses near that level in 2026, he will have a hard time living up to his current ADP. I like that he isn't going any earlier, but I just don't see Springer reproducing his 2025 season in 2026.

I like him better as a third fantasy outfielder, and he's more in the second outfielder range right now. We'll see if Springer can surprise again in 2026, but I'm letting someone else take that gamble, unless he falls a couple rounds.