The Riskiest Fantasy Football Picks in the First 10 Rounds

Let's now look into some of my least favorite fantasy football picks currently going inside the top-100 picks. I'll identify my “worst” picks of the first 10 rounds.

Be sure to check out the article on my favorite picks for the first 10 rounds.

Fantasy football average draft position data can be found on FantasySP in the leadup to the 2026 NFL season! Conduct your fantasy football mock drafts through FantasySP too - you can now customize the scoring settings to tailor to your fantasy leagues!

Round 1 - Ashton Jeanty

I believe in Jeanty and think he will continue to rise as a fantasy asset, but I think the first round is too early for him.

Granted, he's going 10th overall on average so far, Jeanty just hasn't earned that yet. There's several players going after him that I would prefer over him.

Wait a few picks and get Jeanty in the second round. The late first round selection doesn't leave much room for the back to outproduce his draft slot.

Round 2 - Justin Jefferson

Jefferson is going 12th overall on average, but he's my least favorite pick of the round 2 options.

He really struggled a season ago, and I'm not expecting a massive bounceback effort from him in 2026.

Minnesota still has a quarterback issue, and Jefferson also has dealt with some injuries over his career. He's capable of finishing that high, or even higher, but I'd let someone else take that gamble unless he falls into the 20s.

Round 3 - Rashee Rice

Rice is my least favorite player going between picks 21-30.

He has been limited to 12 games over the past two seasons, and has yet to really break onto the scene. I get why he's going early as the top wideout in KC, but with so-so numbers and off-the-field issues, he's just not a smart pick that early.

Let someone else take the risk with Rice. If you can get him a round or more later, then I wouldn't mind taking the KC wideout.

Round 4 - Travis Etienne Jr.

I like Etienne and think he landed in a solid offense in New Orleans, but with Alvin Kamara still around, I don't like Etienne as a fourth-round pick, and a pretty early one at that.

I could see Etienne and Kamara splitting the backfield pretty evenly. I do see Etienne earning more touches, but with Kamara's PPR prowess, I think that will limit Etienne.

With Kamara now back in New Orleans after re-working his contract, maybe Etienne's ADP will fall. For now, I really don't like the value with it.

Round 5 - David Montgomery

Montgomery is the last player drafted of the round 5 options, but something is just saying he's not worth the 50th overall pick.

He is no longer stuck behind Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit, but with Woody Marks in Houston, I don't love Montgomery's outlook in Houston. I like the team's pass catchers too, and think those guys will suck up a lot of offense production too.

Montgomery could be the 1A in Houston, but I don't think it's worth the 50th pick in a fantasy draft.

Round 6 - D'Andre Swift

Swift has been a solid fantasy asset since joining the Bears' but he's my least favorite pick of the sixth round options.

Chicago has Kyle Monangai in the backfield too, and I think the 2025 draft pick gets more work in 2026. Throw in a bunch of other offensive playmakers and I'm not loving the overall outlook for Swift.

The value in round 6 isn't terrible, but I had to make a pick, and he was my least favorite option of the bunch.

Round 7 - Jalen Hurts

I get the appeal with Hurts and his dual-threat ability, but I'd prefer him being drafted later than his current ADP.

Philly has playmakers around, even after A.J. Brown was traded away. Hurts has never been a great passer, and losing a top wideout isn't going to help the quarterback's cause.

He could make up for his passing with his running, but I think defenses will force him to pass, and I don't think Hurts will deliver enough to be worth a seventh-round pick.

Round 8 - Jordyn Tyson

I really like Tyson and where he landed, but this seems too early to have him drafted.

Chris Olave should still lead the pass catchers, and I'm not completely sold on quarterback Tyler Shough yet. Tyson should be a good option in time, but I don't see him being worth an eighth-round pick by the end of the year.

This is probably my least confident pick of the bunch so far. We'll see if my opinion changes, or his ADP drops to ease my concerns.

Round 9 - Tony Pollard

I'm really not a big fan of Pollard being taken in round 9, especially early in it. 

He is slated to be the top back for the Titans, but Tyjae Spears and rookie Nicholas Singleton are other worthy options there too. At best, I see Pollard in a split backfield over time.

I get the appeal of getting a starting back this late, but because of the backfield look as a whole, I'm not a fan of this draft slot for Pollard.

Round 10 - J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins seems like another value pick as the projected starter, but I think he's going too early.

RJ Harvey is another backfield option, and likely to be given a bigger role to see if he can live up to his second-round status from last year. Rookie Jonah Coleman was also drafted this offseason.

Throw in injury issues for Dobbins and I just don't like the value of drafting Dobbins in round 10.