Fantasy Baseball First Base Busts: Players Likely to Underperform Their Draft Spot
These first basemen have risk factors that could make them busts.
After just going over fantasy baseball first base draft steals, let's put together a list of draft busts at the position.
Here are the other positions we've covered so far: catchers (steals and busts) outfielders (steals and busts), shortstops (steals and busts) and third basemen (steals and busts). Check back for more in the days/weeks to come!
Fantasy baseball average draft position data can be found on FantasySP. Draft Genius now has custom head-to-head scoring options and on demand AI expert help for every pick.
Nick Kurtz - Athletics
Kurtz is the top-drafted fantasy first baseman that I have as a draft bust. He's the third first baseman off draft boards, going around pick 43 overall.
Kurtz was great in his rookie season in 2025, which spanned 117 games. He had 36 homers and a .290 average, plus a .383 on-base percentage.
Now that the league has some tape on Kurtz, I could see his numbers regressing in year two, even though there wasn't a lot to not like with him last year. He does strike out quite a bit, so a drop in average/OBP could be enough to turn him into a draft bust.
I don't hate his ADP, but that's a lofty bar to go over for a young player in his first full season. I see him not performing quite as well over a full 162-game season, and him being a draft bust, even if it's by just a round or so.
Bryce Harper - Philadelphia Phillies
Harper is the fifth first baseman taken on average, going near pick 54 so far.
He was outside the top-10 first baseman last season, and that was largely due to him only getting in 132 games. He hasn't gone over 145 games in any of the past six seasons, so availability is an issue with Harper nowadays.
His hitting marks also regressed last season, and in his age-33 season, those numbers could fall again. Between the lower production when healthy and some injury concerns, I just don't like Harper's ADP.
If I drafted him, I'd want a second fantasy first baseman, and that's not ideal for a top-five picked player at any position. I'd skip Harper unless he dropped a round or more.
Ben Rice - New York Yankees
Rice is sixth on the first base list, sitting near pick 65 overall.
It pains me to put Rice on this list, but I think it's warranted. First off, he's eligible at catcher and first base, which ups his fantasy value. Being able to flip him between those two spots is massive for fantasy purposes.
Add in that he's coming off a breakout season and is only 27 years old and that's normally a player I'd love to take for a fantasy season. But, New York retained Paul Goldschmidt this offseason, meaning Rice will likely be in a platoon.
Even if he can swap between his two positions, I'm not sure he'll play enough to warrant being the lone fantasy 1B on any team. He'd have to really excel, or actually play everyday, to become a draft steal and I think it's more likely that he underperforms and becomes a draft bust.
Freddie Freeman - Los Angeles Dodgers
Freeman is next up - he's the seventh first baseman off draft boards and going near pick 67 on average.
Freeman is another long-time fantasy hitter that I'm down on in 2026. He was the No. 9 fantasy 1B last year, and in his age-36 season, I see him regressing more instead of bouncing back.
He still plays most days, but has missed 15 games in two straight years. Freeman can still post good hitting marks when healthy, but between a bit of regression and some injury concern, I don't love his ADP.
I'd be taking another first baseman if I was drafting Freeman. If he dropped a round or more, I'd be OK taking him, but I think it's more likely he goes earlier than later, based on his big name. I'd skip Freeman as a result.
Christian Walker - Houston Astros
Walker is not going until around pick 155, and is the 13th first baseman off draft boards, but I still view him as a draft bust.
Walker was outside the top 20 fantasy 1B last season. That makes him a bounceback candidate in 2026, but at nearly 35 years old, I see him regressing instead of bouncing back.
In 2025, he posted similar numbers to his 2024 season, and that season he only played 130 games (24 less than last year). If he regresses again in 2026, he might not even be a top-30 fantasy 1B.
I get his ADP isn't anything too crazy, but I'd much rather draft another fantasy 1B option than take a chance on Walker. On the ADP list, I like Yandy Diaz and Luis Arraez more than him - they only are going a bit earlier. I also like Spencer Torkelson, Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras and several others over Walker instead. Skip Walker late and try someone else.
