Fantasy Football Week 1 Quarterback Start/Sit Decisions: Mahomes, Dart, and More

Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season! We look forward to this all year (since February at least), and it's finally here. After an exciting opening-game rematch of the Super Bowl, it's time to look forward to our first NFL Sunday; it really is the best time of year!

Let's look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 1 of the NFL season. This won't include any obvious calls; you don't need me to tell you to start Josh Allen. Instead, we have six guys below who are worth starting some weeks but might be better kept on the bench other times. Most stats are from NFL.com, and previous fantasy points/rankings are from FantasyPros.

Use FantasySP's weekly projections to find the players who are expected to excel and help make your toughest lineup decisions!

Start

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Dart played 12 games last season in which he threw a pass. He finished as QB14 overall and QB8 from Week 4 on (when he made his first real appearance). That included missing Weeks 11 and 12 with injury, and while those concerns might persist with a guy who runs and isn't necessarily fond of sliding, there's a reason that Dart was drafted in the top eight among fantasy quarterbacks in most leagues. He averaged over 40 rushing yards per game and scored nine touchdowns on the ground; he's going to do damage with his legs.

Last season, the Cowboys allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt and the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. There is risk in trusting last year's numbers, but Dallas was a breeding ground for QB production and will have to make a huge jump to even be average. Dart faced the Cowboys at the end of last season and had a good game, throwing for 230 yards and two touchdowns and running for 32 more yards.

By the end of the season, Dart might be a guy you are starting without question. It's not bad to be a little cautious with a young player, but Dart has a strong outlook here and could start the season on a high note.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati was another team that struggled defensively in 2025, giving up the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. It has been a multi-season problem for the Bengals, as their defense has brought down a highly-talented offensive group in recent years, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Cincinnati harbor a below-average defense again this season.

Mayfield finished as QB12 last season after being a top-10 player at the position his first two years in Tampa. His volume and efficiency were both down a bit in 2025, though he did set a career high in rushing yards for the second straight season. While the Bucs lost Mike Evans, they still have a talented group of receivers, and with the matchup heavily in his favor, Mayfield has a strong outlook in Week 1, making him worthy of a spot in your lineup.

Geno Smith, New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans

Are you ready to get risky? Owners generally don't have to dig too far for players in Week 1, but if you're in a deeper league or just have a guy with a rough matchup, Smith doesn't have the worst outlook. He didn't bottom out last year, but Smith did have his worst recent season after three decent years in Seattle. He's probably still close enough to average to have good games against the right matchups, especially with a lot of young potential talent surrounding him (though that's far from a guarantee for success).

Tennessee allowed the most yards per pass attempt and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. The Titans added some talent to the defense, but like with Dallas, Tennessee is going to have to make a huge jump to even get to an average level against the pass. Until we see them find any success, I feel fairly confident about targeting the Titans.

I'm not highly recommending Smith, but if you find yourself in a bind, there's nothing wrong with considering the New York quarterback. This is more of a play for deeper in the season when injuries and bye weeks are affecting your options, but you could find worse.

Sit

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Mahomes had previously been drafted among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks close to every year of his career as a starter, but coming off a torn ACL in December and a relative down year by his own lofty standards, Mahomes was drafted around QB12-15 in most leagues, leaving him as a questionable starter. He will have plenty of big games, but there is reason to be skeptical right away, and it's not just because of his own circumstances…

The Broncos were one of the best defensive teams in football last season. They allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, making things hard on passing games all year long. Mahomes faced Denver once, and though his volume was good (276 yards), it took him 45 pass attempts to get there (a below-average 6.1 yards per attempt). Don't be surprised if yards are again hard to come by on a consistent basis in Week 1.

Mahomes is a tough player to bench given his name recognition, but you probably didn't draft him as a starter, and it might be best to leave him on your bench to start the season.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo was another stout defense last season, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs. A team with Super Bowl aspirations, the Bills will surely be expecting plenty out of their D once again, and some of the most important pieces are back to go along with new additions Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (among others).

After a strong rookie season, Stroud has been an average quarterback the past two years. There's nothing wrong with that, but he hasn't shown to be a top-level passer in line with the huge raise he is surely expecting. That doesn't mean he can't be better; we saw him put up a top-11 fantasy score in 2023. I'm not ready to trust Stroud for fantasy consistency, though, especially against a tough defense.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This might seem like an obvious one, but there are a few reasons people could find a little intrigue with Watson. He was a top fantasy quarterback during much of his time with Houston, but his last good season was in 2020, and we've seen nothing remotely close to that level among injuries and suspension in the meantime. Watson can also run the ball, something I look for from fantasy quarterbacks, and he has an intriguing set of young playmakers, but it will take a huge jump from anything we've seen over the past half-decade for Watson to make a real fantasy impact.

Jacksonville allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt in 2025, but they were only in the middle against quarterbacks in fantasy. A big part of that was volume, as the Jaguars faced more pass attempts than any other team. That's likely to regress back toward the middle this year, and if the Jags can continue to play good defensive football, they will fare much better by fantasy marks.

It wouldn't be a complete surprise if Watson found a little success in some games, but I won't be the one counting on him early. Go with the embattled QB at your own risk.