Who is the Biggest Fantasy Baseball Draft Bust so Far?

About a month into the MLB regular season, we can start looking back on preseason projections to see who is overperforming or underperforming.

Today, I wanted to look back at the top fantasy baseball picks and then point out any players who have underperformed and are trending toward being busts.

We'll use the FantasySP ADP head-to-head list and then ESPN fantasy leaders to come up with my list. We'll break things down by when players were drafted, top-10 and top-25 picks.

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Top-10 Picks

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was selected at pick 10.58 on average, so I'm counting him as a first-round pick. He's scored 50 fantasy points so far, which has him well outside the top-50 fantasy hitters to this point.

Vladdy has been better of late, and his overall numbers look decent, but he's definitely fallen short of expectations after being a top-10 pick. He's hitting .277 and getting on base at a .373 clip. He has one homer among his 26 total hits, along with just 10 RBIs and nine runs scored.

There's still lots of time for Guerrero to catch back up to his preseason projections and still finish as a top-end fantasy player, but he's definitely playing catch up right now.

Yordan Alvarez was taken at pick 10.7 on average, so I'm also including him in the top-10 section. He's scored 42 fantasy points so far, which doesn't even rank in the top-100 fantasy hitters so far.

Alvarez is a career .296 hitter with a .388 OBP, but has just a .221 average and .323 OBP so far. He's been hitting a touch better over the past couple weeks, but is still not producing like a top-10 fantasy hitter.

He'll improve his overall standing as the season rolls along, but he'll need to hit better to get back into the top-10 leaderboard by the end of the season.

Top-25 Picks

Gunnar Henderson, Freddie Freeman, Ketel Marte and Rafael Devers are top-25 picks amongst hitters who are all outside the top-50 fantasy hitters right now. Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes are two pitchers who were drafted in the top 25 picks, but are well outside the top-50 fantasy pitchers right now.

Henderson, Freeman and Marte have all spent time on the injured list, so including them here might not be the most fair, but they've definitely not been as good as fantasy owners expected, and that's what we're talking about today.

In 16 games, Henderson has just a .212 average and .246 OBP. He has seven extra-base hits among his 14 total knocks, but 22 punchouts already is alarming. 

Henderson could have been a top-10 pick if not for his injury, so to see him struggle this much after the injury is definitely alarming, even for those of you who thought they got a steal by landing him in the second round of your fantasy drafts.

Freeman has appeared in just 14 games so far. He's hitting .250 and getting on base at a .327 clip. Those are far cries from his .282 average and .378 OBP from a season ago.

He does have eight extra-base hits among his 12 total knocks, but just isn't producing enough yet. As an older hitter who has dealt with lingering injuries over the past couple seasons, fantasy owners have to be getting a bit worried about Freeman.

He should be able to work his way back into being a top-10 fantasy first baseman by the end of the season, but he was selected to be a top-end fantasy option, not just a daily starter.

Marte has only played in eight games. He was great in those contests, hitting .346 and getting on base at a .469 clip, but his extended absence has crippled his fantasy owners. 

He's expected to be back soon, but after missing nearly a month, he has a ton of work to do to finish as one of the top fantasy hitters at the position, let alone the game.

Devers got off to a rough start at the plate, but has looked more like himself of late. He's hitting .202 and getting on base at a .342 clip.

The big eye opener with Devers is his 34 strikeouts so far. His 21 walks are saving his OBP, and nine extra-base hits across 19 total hits helps his cause a bit too.

He's just outside the top-10 fantasy third basemen, so he hasn't been terrible. Devers still hasn't lived up to his preseason expectations, and it's probably been a detriment to your fantasy team unless you drafted really well around him.

Cease has looked awful to begin the season. Across five starts, he's 1-1, but with a 6.04 ERA. Cease has allowed 18 runs (17 earned) on 30 hits and eight walks, but has 30 strikeouts over 25 1/3 innings to earn back some fantasy value.

A nine-run outing is certainly inflating his numbers, but he's also allowed three runs in two other starts and only topped six innings in one start.

Cease hasn't lived up to his preseason hype, but like any pitcher, in a small sample size, he could also quickly turn his season around with a couple good outings.

Burnes does not have a win over four starts so far. He's 0-1 with a 4.64 ERA. Burnes has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) on 21 hits and nine walks over 21 1/3 innings, while only striking out 17 batters.

Burnes' strikeout numbers have been trending down over the past couple seasons, and it's why I was skeptical on taking him so high in fantasy drafts this season. His ERA has also been poor to start the season, and it's made him a draft bust to this point of the year.

He's allowed at least two runs in every start, but has gotten better over his past couple outings. A couple strong starts could have Burnes looking like a top-end fantasy pitcher again, but he'll need to sustain a high level of pitching to catch up on the overall fantasy point leaderboard.