Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers: Who to Start and Who to Stream

A look at which pitchers are valued in the preseason as top-line fantasy options and which are better against only the right teams.

Pitchers are different from other baseball players. Anyone who has played at the college level or higher, where pitchers are almost all specialized and don't play the field, knows what I'm talking about. Pitchers are weird, and quirky, and moody, and ritualistic, and I could go on.

The same goes for fantasy baseball. The position players in your lineup will be there most days, and you won't have to worry about when they are available. Starting pitchers, on the other hand, will only be in your lineup once or twice during the week, otherwise leaving you scrambling to fill slots.

Some pitchers are worth keeping on your roster from week to week while others are mercenaries, ready to be deployed when they are needed and have the right matchup. That's what my goal is here, to find the line where players are currently seen as "keepers" or "streamers."

This is a fluid list. It will change between now and Opening Day, and it will continue to do the same throughout the season. Let's run through the players and see if we can determine at all what makes someone a keeper and where the line is drawn.

 

Keepers

These guys are all ranked among the top 100 players (or close), so valued in the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts. It's a good place to draw a line, with those ranked above worth keeping for their starts and those ranked below being more suited to start against weaker lineups.

Rank	Player	Rank	Player	Rank	Player
1	Spencer Strider	11	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	21	Zach Eflin
2	Gerrit Cole	12	Framber Valdez	22	Joe Ryan
3	Corbin Burnes	13	Tarik Skubal	23	Jesus Luzardo
4	Zack Wheeler	14	Logan Webb	24	Grayson Rodriguez
5	Kevin Gausman	15	Aaron Nola	25	Joe Musgrove
6	Luis Castillo	16	Max Fried	26	Justin Steele
7	Tyler Glasnow	17	Blake Snell	27	Kyle Bradish
8	Zac Gallen	18	Freddy Peralta	28	Nick Pivetta
9	Pablo Lopez	19	Kodai Senga	29	Dylan Cease
10	George Kirby	20	Logan Gilbert

This group extends from superstars to very good pitchers with high upside and/or a good team situation. The first seven or eight guys are considered can't-miss, with injury the only reason they would greatly disappoint.

Most fantasy owners will grab at least two of these pitchers, setting the top of the rotation with (hopeful) stability. There's much more to write about strategies for drafting and deploying pitchers, but I'll try to stay in the realm of the average fantasy participant.

Yamamoto is the most interesting player in that table. He was a superstar in Japan, winning their equivalent to the Cy Young Award three straight years. He was putting up ERAs under 2.00. Japan is not the major leagues, and he will not perform that well state-side, but he's on probably the best team in baseball and bringing nasty stuff that hitters will be seeing for the first time. I see him as a player to target if he's still available after the fourth or fifth round, with a chance to perform near the top of the position.

Cease has been the subject of trade rumors since last year's deadline. He pitched at a Cy Young-level a few years ago and will likely see his circumstances change from one of the worst teams in baseball (the White Sox) to a contender looking for frontline starting pitching. That would increase Cease's chances at wins and probably improve the defense behind him too.

I could give a similar run-down for a lot of the guys here without changing much: Lots of strikeouts (which is what the game is right now), good team around them (Dodgers, Braves, Orioles, etc.), really good chance to finish as a top-20 fantasy pitcher.

The best draft picks from this group are the ones that stay healthy, which is a crap-shoot. Anyone can get hurt at any time, with arm injuries dominating the conversation but other afflictions present as well. Being lucky enough to grab the top guys who stay healthy through the season is the best way to be successful when drafting pitchers.

 

Streamers

This list could go on for a long time; I don't even know where to start. Rather than listing a lot of players, I'm going to choose a few types of pitchers who can be taken later in drafts and/or streamed through the season and try to give you an idea of what value I am seeing:

Former stars with injury questions

Chris Sale, ATL; Walker Buehler, LAD; Justin Verlander, HOU

There are two sub-groups here: Those that are currently injured and those returning from injury. The "currently injured" group is more valuable if your league allows for IL spots. If they have to just sit on your bench while not playing for months, you are losing a valuable roster spot, so know the rules before going that route.

Sale is one of a few players I'm really intrigued by, as he was one of the best pitchers in baseball at his peak but has suffered a rash of injuries. I don't want to count on him for the whole season, but he's a guy I have been grabbing in mock drafts because he generally comes cheap and has a chance to rack up strikeouts and wins on a great Braves team.

Young guys on good teams

Bobby Miller, LAD

There are more examples, but Miller is exactly the type of guy I'm thinking of when drafting from the streaming tier of pitchers. He's only 24 with 124 innings under his belt, all coming last season. He struck out almost one batter per inning and won 11 of his 22 starts for the Dodgers.

When targeting a player like this, it's important to remember that chasing wins is generally a fool's game. Pitcher wins and losses matter less than ever before when we analyze pitcher performance, and that stretches onto the field. Guys are taken out earlier than they used to be, which can affect their ability to secure the win. Things are so random, also.

Miller and other young studs are great to draft if you remember to keep expectations in check. They might win a lot of games, but they also might not be as good as it seems because of the team around them. Don't just blindly trust these players every time they start until they give you a reason.

Whoever has the best matchup

And this is what it all comes back to. No position is easier and more valuable to stream in fantasy baseball than starting pitchers. Drafting a guy with the expectation that he will be in your lineup for just a game or two before you drop him is the way to hit the ground running at the begining of the season.

We'll get more into who those guys are closer to the season, but it's something to pay attention to at the end of your fantasy draft: Who has the best matchups over the first week of the season?

 

Streaming Advice

I started the conversation just above, but streaming is about finding the best player with the weakest opponent in hopes of getting high-level production. Position players get four at-bats and usually only see the starter twice, so it's harder to get value out of playing matchups at those spots. With starting pitchers, though, they get to face a team for as long as they can go, so they get more chances to take advantage of the good matchup.

Stream often at pitcher. Know your league's rules, too. Is it Roto or points scoring? Do you set your lineup once a week or every day? Is there an innings/games limit? These answers can help you determine how often you want to stream and the level of player you can consider picking up for just one game.

Streaming pitchers is more about knowing who to target: You aren't looking for a pitcher as much as a lineup. As Oakland was risking an appearance near the lowest win totals in years last season, their lineup wasn't doing a lot of damage. That was a great team to regularly pick up pitchers against with the knowledge they were likely to get an easier start against a weak team.

We here at FantasySP will be looking at daily and weekly matchups throughout the season to help you find the best streamers. Check back often in the lead up to the season and during it for updated information and trends on teams and individual players.

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