Finding the Top Week 10 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Khalil Herbert, Mike Gesicki, Quentin Johnston

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

After a few relatively exciting weeks for this time of the season, there’s not much to love on the waiver wire this week. When all of the top three EWI leaders are streaming defenses, it’s a clear sign that there aren’t any true standout pickups. With that said, there are still some interesting names, including one player way down the list who is my favorite add of the week. Let’s break them all down.  

Top Predicted Week 10 Fantasy Football Adds

TE Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (33% EWI)

I’m going to end this blurb with a very negative takeaway on Gesicki, so let’s start with the reasons why he is currently leading the league in EWI. The former Dolphin has had back-to-back big weeks with Tee Higgins sidelined, following up an eight-target Week 8 with exactly 100 yards and two touchdowns in an absolutely massive Week 9. 

Gesicki has averaged 12.6 Half-PPR points in four games without Higgins — that’s three more points per game than Ja’Marr Chase! Higgins has yet to return to practice while dealing with a quad injury, and he has no incentive to rush himself back while playing on the franchise tag. Rookie TE Erick All Jr. suffering a season-ending ACL injury could also mean more snaps for the veteran Gesikci. Given the state of the tight end position, it’s not crazy to think he is worth adding.

With that said, I’m avoiding Gesicki in the vast majority of formats. Even if we look just at his four games without Higgins, he is averaging just a 55% route participation rate. On Sunday, with Higgins out and All exiting early, he still peaked at just 61%. If we include games with Higgins healthy (and he'll be back eventually), Gesicki drops to just a 51% route participation rate, not to mention a 12% target share. Chasing huge games from part-time players at the TE position is almost always a losing battle (remember Week 1 Isaiah Likely?), and I’d rather add a player with more hope of being a long-term option at a more valuable position. 

WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (30% EWI)

On some level, Quentin Johnston has similar red flags to Gesicki. He had a big game on Sunday, but it was mostly thanks to a 66-yard blown-coverage TD. For the season, the 2023 first-rounder has averaged just 4.3 targets and 47 yards per game, and this wasn’t even his first blown-coverage TD of the year. 

However, I have more optimism about QJ going forward than I do Gesicki. For one, we’ve actually seen him run real route shares in this Chargers offense: He was at 68% in Week 9 and posted multiple weeks above 80% early in the season before his ankle injury. For another, the Chargers’ offense is trending upward in terms of passing volume. After ranking second-lowest (ahead of only the Dolphins without Tua) in pass rate vs. expected at -7.2% over the first six weeks of the season, the Chargers have been at least 5% above expected in each of the last three weeks. Justin Herbert has been playing incredibly, and Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are starting to let him cook. 

QJ is a bit of a punchline in the fantasy community, but he’s still a 23-year-old former first-rounder with real talent. He’s worth adding in deeper formats in case he can start producing on plays where the defense actually remembers to cover him.

TE Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins (28% EWI)

If you are committed to adding a TE this week, I prefer Jonnu, the current Dolphin, to the former Dolphin Gesicki. For the season, Jonnu has a 15.8% target share, tied with De’Von Achane for second in Miami’s offense behind Tyreek Hill. Unlike Gesicki, he is also consistently on the field, with a 72% route participation rate for the season. 

Smith’s involvement hasn’t disappeared with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, either. If anything, it has improved, as he has seen target shares of 16% and 21% over the last two weeks with Tua back under center. Tagovailoa’s return also means this Miami offense should be much more functional. Jonnu has always been an elite athlete for the TE position, and Mike McDaniel may finally be putting him in a position to thrive. Don’t expect consistent TE1 production from Jonnu, but he has emerged as a solid streaming or backup option at the position. 

WR Noah Brown, Washington Commanders (28% EWI)

With how well Jayden Daniels has been playing, it’s surprising that Terry McLaurin has so far been the Commanders’ only dependable fantasy option. However, Noah Brown is trending in the right direction to change that. He set a new high route participation rate for the season in Week 9 at 76%, a week after posting a 72% participation rate in Week 8 (no other Commander WR has broken even 62% so far this season). 

Of course, Brown still hasn’t exactly had many standout performances. For the season, he has just a 13.7% target share in this offense. Even if we exclude the games where he was inactive, that number only jumps slightly to 15.3%. However, he does have a solid 23% target per route run rate and a healthy 12.1-yard ADOT. Combine those numbers with his growing route share, and things start to look much more promising. Brown is worth adding in deeper formats as someone who could emerge as the second option in this high-powered offense.  

RB Khalil Herbert, Cincinnati Bengals (27% EWI)

I actually featured Herbert in both this week's and last week’s RB Waiver breakdowns on the logic that he might be traded from the Bears to an RB-needy team … I guess that worked out. 

This landing spot in Cincinnati isn’t the best possible home for Herbert (Dallas), but it is a huge increase to his value. Only Zack Moss and Chase Brown have touched the ball in the Bengals’ backfield so far this season, and Moss is now on IR and potentially done for the season with a neck injury. Herbert is unlikely to usurp Brown as the Bengals' RB1, but he should be involved immediately as at least a change-of-pace back.

This is a bit of a weird fit, as both Herbert and Brown profile as efficient early-down runners with issues in the passing game, especially blocking. With that said, Herbert’s career-low PFF pass-blocking grade for a season is 53.3, while Brown is at a truly putrid 18.3 so far this season. That gives Herbert an inside lane to passing-down work, with more upside if he can cut into Brown’s rushing workload or the sophomore is injured. With all that in mind, Herbert may actually be my favorite pickup of this entire week. 

WR Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams (24% EWI)

Robinson is coming off two straight two-touchdown games, having his best performances of the season with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the Rams’ lineup. With that said, I don’t see his hot streak continuing. Robinson has benefitted from Nacua playing limited snaps in Week 8 and then being ejected early in Week 9, but we know he will eventually be the WR3 in this offense. As good as Matthew Stafford is, he’s not going to support three fantasy-relevant WRs. Robinson is not worth adding outside of particularly deep formats. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.