Can a High-Upside Pitcher Like Hunter Dobbins Stand Out on a Mediocre Fantasy Baseball Streaming Day?

I often make a big deal about the strikeout and walk rates of our prospective streaming pitchers. Those are two of the biggest factors that I focus on with most pitchers, as the majority often rise and fall with those rates.

I've equated high-strikeout pitchers to running quarterbacks in fantasy: in the same way that a running QB can have a bad passing day but still be productive in fantasy football because of his numbers on the ground, a pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters can give up too many runs and hits in a short start but still be successful if he adds six or seven strikeouts.

We don't have many good strikeout guys on our streaming list today, so we'll have to make due with a mix of middling and worse options. It's important to remember that you don't have to force pitchers into your lineup this early if you have an innings limit; you can make up the numbers with players of this caliber at any point in the season.

Let's look at five starting pitchers in action on Saturday who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups. Most stats are from MLB.com, as are the probable starters. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.

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Hunter Dobbins, Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

The Twins are teetering on the precipice of the bottom 10: they rank 19th in runs, 18th in hits, 21st in batting average and on-base percentage, and 22nd in slugging percentage and OPS. They're also in the bottom 10 in walks and home runs, not helping themselves with quick runs.

Dobbins has made two starts (the first of his career), totaling 11 innings, four runs allowed (three earned), 11 strikeouts, and just two walks. Dobbins was decent with run prevention in the minors, but he was a little below average with strikeouts. He's a decent fantasy option, but Dobbins will start giving up more runs.

Dobbins is a low- to mid-level streamer. He would be a notch higher if the matchup was better. This is a case of an OK ceiling but maybe a lower floor as well.

Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies

Hicks is the lucky man with the best matchup available today. Away from the friendly confines of Coors Field, the Rockies were shut out yesterday, as San Francisco starter Robbie Ray (a member of yesterday's streamer list, albeit with the caveat that he is owned is over half of leagues) went seven innings with eight strikeouts and just two hits allowed.

Hicks has struggled early in the season. He has given up 36 hits in 32.1 innings to go with 23 runs (6.12 ERA). He has been a below-average strikeout guy the past two seasons while walking more batters than average.

Hicks is a low- to mid-level streamer. The matchup couldn't be better, but Hicks has taken a step back in his transition to starter; I wonder if the Giants will eventually transition him back to the bullpen, especially in the playoffs.

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros

Houston is in the bottom 10 in essentially every offensive box stat. They are bordering on a bottom-five offense, though they might not quite be at that level. Houston is a clear target team after a month-plus of play.

Martin has been well below average with strikeouts to start the season; his career rate is only a little better but still several percentage points below league average. He's about average with walks, and it has worked out to about average run prevention.

Martin is another low- to mid-level streamer. His limited Ks cap his ceiling, but the matchup is right for a decent day.

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals

The 35-year-old Sugano is in his first MLB season after a long career in Japan. He has been very good with walks and has an ERA of 3.00, but his strikeout rate of 12.6% is close to half the league average. It could be a small-sample anomaly in just six starts and 33 innings, but it's safe to say that Sugano is going to be below average with Ks in his time in America.

The Royals are a bonafide bottom-five offense. They have hit just 15 home runs in 33 games; that's seven fewer than any other team. That is a direct reason that they are last in slugging percentage and 29th in OPS. The only downside is that Kansas City has struck out the third least, capping the ceiling a little bit.

Sugano is a low- to mid-level streamer. He has had early success, but the lack of strikeouts really hurts his fantasy value. The matchup takes him up a half-notch.

Randy Vasquez, San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are one of the few target teams who are striking out a lot early in the season, currently tied for sixth in Ks. They are also inept in every other way, making Pittsburgh one of the best matchups around.

Most pitchers have a strikeout rate at least twice as high as their walk rate. Through 27.1 innings, Vasquez has that backward, holding a K% of 8.2% and a BB% of 15.6%. His career strikeout percentage is 14.6% versus a league average around 22%, so there's not much improvement coming there. His walk rate has been just a hair worse than average and has to come down from his current 2025 rate.

Vasquez makes it five for five, as he is another low- to mid-level streamer. The formula is mostly a decent pitcher with a really good matchup, and that's where Vasquez fits in.

Saturday's Streamer Rankings

1. Hunter Dobbins, BOS
2. Jordan Hicks, SF
3. Tomoyuki Sugano, BAL
4. Randy Vasquez, SD
5. Davis Martin, CWS