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Updating the Cubs' Top 10 Prospects: Cade Horton, Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara, Michael Arias and More

Taking a look at how the Chicago Cubs' top 10 prospects are faring in the minor leagues.

Morgan Rode Jul 6th 10:54 AM EDT.

PEORIA, AZ - MARCH 22: Chicago Cubs right fielder Owen Caissie (97) scores a run during a Spring Training Baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners on March 22, 2022, at Peoria Stadium in Peoria, AZ. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire)
PEORIA, AZ - MARCH 22: Chicago Cubs right fielder Owen Caissie (97) scores a run during a Spring Training Baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners on March 22, 2022, at Peoria Stadium in Peoria, AZ. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire)

After finishing up a series of stories on how top-100 MLB prospects were faring in Triple-A this season, the next series I want to tackle is looking at the team's top prospects and how they are performing as they work their way up the organizational ladder.

We’ll keep the focus on the top-10 prospects from each organization and start with the Chicago Cubs, who have seven top-100 prospects.

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Cubs’ Top Prospects

Chicago’s top prospect is Cade Horton. The 22-year-old right-handed pitcher is currently in Triple-A and should make his MLB debut at some point this season.

He was drafted with the seventh overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft and pitched in the minor leagues beginning in 2023. He had a 2.65 earned run average between three minor league teams that season, and has a 4.46 ERA between two minor league teams this season. 

In 18 AAA innings, Horton has a 7.50 ERA, so it appears he still needs a little more seasoning before getting a call to the big leagues. He’s got a 70-grade slider and 60-grade fastball, along with a 50-grade curveball and 45-grade changeup. Horton has a 55-grade for control.

He only has 122 2/3 minor league innings under his belt, and has only thrown 34 1/3 innings this season. There’s a chance he could get called up if the Cubs decide to sell at the deadline - if the Cubs are buyers, Horton is a trade option. 

Either way, I like Horton’s chances of pitching in the big leagues at some point this season. He might have his innings limited or be shut down before the end of the season, so the first season I really see him making a big fantasy impact is in 2025.

Matt Shaw is the team’s No. 2 prospect and is playing in Double-A. He’s 22 years old and primarily plays third base.

Shaw was the 13th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and hit .357 across 38 minor league games that season. In 68 AA games this season, Shaw has a .251 average. 

Shaw has above-average grades for his hit, power and run tools, while being an average fielder and having a below-average arm. With average results so far in 2024, a call up to the big leagues seems like more of a possibility in 2025, although a massive selloff of big league talent could change the equation for Shaw. 

Owen Caissie is a 21-year-old outfielder who is already in AAA. He was drafted in the second round of the 2020 MLB Draft and was traded to the Cubs before playing a minor league game. In parts of four seasons since, Caissie has a combined .278 average and .387 OBP.

His best tool is his power, graded at a 65. Caissie has a 60-grade arm, 50-grade field, 45-grade hit and 40-grade run. I’ve seen several sites list his ETA as 2025, but I think there’s a chance he makes the big leagues after the trade deadline, depending on how the Cubs approach things.

James Triantos is Chicago’s No. 4 prospect. The 21-year-old primary second baseman is playing in Double-A. 

Triantos was a second-round pick in 2021. In parts of four minor league seasons since, he’s combined for a .289 average and .349 OBP. 

His best-graded tool is his hitting, while his arm is also above average. Triantos has 50-grade power and marks of 45 for his running and fielding. He doesn’t strike out much and has swiped 68 bases over those four seasons, so that appears better than a 45 grade.

He’s enjoyed success in AA this season and could be moved to Triple-A at any point. A late-season call up isn’t totally out of the question if the Cubs sell off a bunch of major league talent, but debuting in 2025 seems most likely with Triantos.

Moises Ballesteros is the Cubs. No. 5 prospect. He’s playing in Triple-A as a 20-year-old, and can catch or play first base. Ballesteros was signed by the team in 2021.

In parts of four minor league seasons, Ballesteros has a .282 average and .372 OBP. In 14 AAA games, Ballesteros has a .333 average and .367 OBP, so the moment doesn’t seem too big for him.

He’s best known for his hit tool, which is graded at 55. He’s got average marks in power, arm and field, while being a 20-grade runner. 

Ballesteros has an ETA of at least 2025 on most sites, and 2026 on several. I think there’s a good chance he gets the call this season, especially if he continues to excel at AAA. He could be called up late in the season just to give the team some hope for the future (if they continue to fall out of the playoff picture).

Kevin Alcantara is a 21-year-old outfielder playing in Double-A right now. He was signed by the Yankees in 2018 and was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade.

In parts of five minor league seasons, Alcantara has a .280 average and .348 OBP. He’s got at least average grades in each tool, and slightly above-average marks for power, run, arm and field. 

Alcantara strikes out a good bit, but is well-rounded enough that he should be able to offset that when/if he makes the big leagues. He’s hitting .261 in AA this season, and is probably looking at debuting late in 2025 at this point.

Jefferson Rojas is a 19-year-old shortstop playing in High-A this season. He was signed by the team in 2022 and has an ETA of 2026.

Since 2022, Rojas has a .270 average and .340 OBP in the minor leagues. He’s another prospect with above-average marks in each tool. His best marks are a 60-grade arm and 55-grade hit.

He’s at least a couple years away from the big leagues, but at just 19, should be able to enjoy a long and prosperous MLB career if he continues on his trajectory.

Fernando Cruz is a 17-year-old shortstop playing in rookie ball. He was signed earlier this year and was the No. 4 international prospect according to MLB.com. His ETA is 2029.

Cruz has played in 10 games so far, and sits with a .207 average and .343 OBP. He already has five stolen bases.

Cruz has at least average grades in each tool. He’s got a 60 run grade and 55 marks in power, arm and field.

He’s several years away from making the MLB, but as a top international prospect, he needs to be watched closely. He could rise quickly when things start to click at the plate.

Michael Arias is a 22-year-old pitcher currently in Triple-A. He was signed by the Blue Jays in 2018 as a shortstop before the Cubs signed him in 2021 as a pitcher.

He’s posted a 3.91 ERA across four minor league seasons as a pitcher. Arias has a 3.62 ERA between AA and AAA this season. 

Arias has exclusively worked as a reliever this season, and seeing the Cubs’ bullpen struggles this season, I could see Arias getting the call any day to help out. Arias would likely serve a long relief role, but could certainly be a rotation option down the line.

Drew Gray is the team’s No. 10 prospect right now. He’s 21 years old and pitching in High-A. Gray was drafted by the team in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft.

Gray has a 4.63 ERA across 79 2/3 minor league seasons (three years). Opponents are batting just .188 against him, but he also has a 1.62 WHIP figure, so he needs to clean up his walks.

He’s got 55 grades for his fastball, curveball and slider, but 45 marks for his changeup and overall control. Gray has worked as a starter in each minor league appearance, but could be switched to a reliever if he can’t rein his stuff in.

Seeing some of his minor league struggles, and that he’s in just High-A, it’s likely going to be at least a couple seasons until we see him in the big leagues. He could move up quicker if he transitioned to the bullpen, but that would of course wipe out a lot of his fantasy value.

#dynasty #2024-fantasy-baseball #prospects

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