NFL Super Bowl Best Bets: Recent Division Champions, Influxes of Talent and a Surprise No. 1?

Gambling on sports keeps people involved. I actually get annoyed when I hear people say something like, “I have to bet on the games otherwise I don't care enough to pay attention.” Like, dude, go read a book or something then. I can't argue that sports betting keeps people engaged and watching, though, which is good for the revenues of the leagues (not that it helps any of us common folk).

People are always looking to bet on the NFL. During the season, it's easy: you throw a few bucks down on a team to win or cover the spread or go over/under a certain number of points. In the offseason, it's a little trickier. We have to focus on future bets for division/conference/Super Bowl champions or team win over/unders.

At the beginning of July, I looked at the best bets for the winners of the AFC and NFC, the teams giving the best return on investment to make the Super Bowl in each conference. It makes sense, then, to do the same with the Super Bowl and look at the teams who offer the best bets given their chances to win and the Vegas odds on those bets.

We'll run through the teams in a Guess Who? style format, eliminating groups along the way until getting to our final contenders and, ultimately, my favorite bet for Super Bowl champion. The listed odds are from FanDuel and correct as of August 1.

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Too Short of Odds

Baltimore Ravens +650

Buffalo Bills +700

Philadelphia Eagles +750

Kansas City Chiefs +850

Detroit Lions +1100

These teams are the five most likely to win the Super Bowl. I know it, you know it, and the bookmakers in Las Vegas know it. That's why they have the shortest betting odds. Because the odds are so short, it makes it tough to look at any of these bets and think they offer the best chance at the best return.

Too much can go wrong in football. Not only do these five teams have to compete with each other at the top, but they also must fend off formidable teams in their respective division and navigate the long, arduous NFL schedule.

Think of last year's 49ers: San Francisco had somewhere between +500 and +650 preseason odds to win last season's Super Bowl (according sportsoddshistory.com). That pegged them as either the most likely team to win or the second-most likely behind the Chiefs. Then Christian McCaffrey got hurt. Then Brandon Aiyuk got hurt. Then Talanoa Hufanga and others went down. Everything went wrong for San Fran, and they finished the season 6-11, ahead of only 10 other teams.

Anything can go wrong in any given year for any team, even the Chiefs. When making a bet with so many variables, accepting such a (relatively) small return means you're not getting enough bang for your buck. One of the five teams listed here will probably win the Super Bowl, but it's hard to tell who will fall off because of things out of their control.

Get Real

Carolina Panthers +10000

New York Giants +25000

Cleveland Browns +33000

New Orleans Saints +40000

On the other side of the coin are the teams who don't seemingly have any chance. Just because too small of a number is bad doesn't mean the biggest numbers are automatically good. For any bet to be a good one, it has to have a realistic chance of winning, and I don't see that being the case for the four franchises listed here.

New York, Cleveland, and New Orleans have three of the four worst odds to win the championship, something that follows conventional thinking. They would all be counting on an average-or-worse veteran quarterback to carry a below-average roster or a rookie to break through and become a star right away. And we're not talking about top picks: these are rookies in the late-first round or Day 2 picks (or later).

The Giants would seem to have the best chances of that group, as they have stars on both sides of the ball (Malik Nabers, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter), but I'm not looking at Russell Wilson or Jaxson Dart as guys who will drag this team to the playoffs, let alone win big in the postseason.

Carolina is getting a bump in odds and public perception because Bryce Young looked functional in the second half of last season after a year-and-a-half of playing like an instant bust. The talent around him was putrid, so it makes sense to think a better team will help him, but this is still probably a below-average roster, especially on defense, and not a group poised to make a run.

At Least a Year Away

Atlanta Falcons +6500

Jacksonville Jaguars +7500

New England Patriots +8000

Tennessee Titans +17000

We have four young quarterbacks and four coaches who are in their first or second year with their current team. The elder statesman, Trevor Lawrence, is still only 25 and entering his fifth year. While it's impossible to know how players will develop and what will change year to year, everyone here has more potential than actual evidence that they are about to break out.

The Jaguars and Titans are in maybe the weakest division in football, with a two-time defending champion in Houston who looks nothing like a Super Bowl contender (more on them later). Liam Coen is a first-time head coach for the Jags, while Brian Callahan enters his second season and now has a rookie quarterback. We haven't seen either have any success as a head man, only as offensive coordinators, and average-at-best rosters don't scream big-time winner.

Mike Vrabel had success as Tennessee's head coach, but he now joins a Patriots team with a second-year QB in Drake Maye who showed promise but still needs seasoning. New England added a ton of veteran talent to the roster over the past two offseasons, raising their floor in the process. The ceiling still feels low, though, topping out as a wild card contender. Either Maye needs to take a huge leap, or this unit needs another year or more of development and talent acquisition.

Atlanta has people buzzing. I'm not really sure why. Michael Penix was a top-10 pick last year, and he got to start a few games at the end of last season, when he looked overmatched. I'm not basing his chances on those few games, but there's no reason to think he's about to come out looking like a star. The rest of the roster is better but still middling, and I'm not counting on Penix to lift them to a division title and/or deep playoff run.

New Coach and/or Quarterback

Seattle Seahawks +6000

New York Jets +26000

Having a new coach, QB, or both doesn't necessarily preclude a team from making a deep run. We only have to look at last year's Commanders as proof of what the right duo can do. The teams in the previous section all fit this description too, but it feels different with these two teams, as they are more veteran-heavy.

The Jets have Aaron Glenn and Justin Fields in place, a duo we don't know a ton about. We've seen Fields at his worst, but we've also seen him have success when he can run the ball. New York has the third-worst odds to win the Super Bowl, and it's another case of needing to see it before we can believe it.

Seattle looked like a darling pick last year, but they disappointed in 2024 and now traded out a solid QB in Geno Smith for a guy with a higher ceiling but lower floor in Sam Darnold. We have six seasons of Darnold looking like a below-average quarterback and one season, with one of the best offensive coaches in the league, of him looking good; which is more likely to show up in 2025? I don't trust Darnold and see him regressing after an impressive season with the Vikings.

Only Good Enough on One Side of the Ball

Cincinnati Bengals +2300

Houston Texans +2500

Chicago Bears +4400

Pittsburgh Steelers +4500

Miami Dolphins +9500

Las Vegas Raiders +11000

Cincinnati, Chicago (theoretically), Miami, and Las Vegas have the offensive groups to maybe make it happen. Big-time talent. Innovative coaches. Solid overall units. These teams have the pieces. Their defenses all have shortcomings, though, and are probably enough to sink the respective teams.

Whether it's lack of pass rushers, a vulnerable secondary, or a team who had one of the worst defenses in football last season (hi, Cincinnati!), there's a lot that can go wrong on the weaker side of the ball, leaving those four teams probably below the level of a champion.

Just take the exact opposite for Houston and Pittsburgh. Both teams have solid defensive units and superstars on that side of the ball, but their offenses probably aren't good enough to keep up unless we see a massive jump or return to form from the respective quarterbacks.

C.J. Stroud had a great Rookie-of-the-Year campaign in 2023, but he fell back in pretty much every major statistic last year, and it wasn't just a weak offensive line. The team hopes the O-line will play better after a major revamp, but it's a lot to ask for all those moving parts to come together to win at the highest level.

Does Aaron Rodgers have anything left? I don't think so. He can probably approximate close to average play at times, but Rodgers won't be the driving force behind a championship team at this point in his career. The defense will likely have to be a top-five unit while the offense plays capably, and I don't see that as a likely enough outcome to view the Steelers as a good bet.

Unsettled Quarterback Situation

Indianapolis Colts +8000

I wasn't sure where to put the Colts. They don't belong in the “Contender” category nor amongst the dregs of the league, so we'll give them their own special spot. Other franchises also have unsettled quarterback situations that will prevent them from winning the Super Bowl, but they also have full rosters that are inept, landing them in the “Get Real” group, for instance.

Indianapolis has competence throughout the depth chart, including both an offensive and defensive line that both graded out close to average last season. With Anthony Richardson Sr. not showing he can be the leader yet and Daniel Jones causing a real QB competition in camp, we need to see the younger quarterback come out with fire and show why he was a top-five pick.

If Richardson pops this year, the whole equation changes. Most likely, we'll be looking at a middling team again who could compete for a wild card spot but not do much else.

Odds Still too Short?

Los Angeles Rams +1700

Washington Commanders +1800

San Francisco 49ers +1900

Minnesota Vikings +2100

Green Bay Packers +2200

Now it gets to a really tough time to start cutting teams. Every franchise listed here has other great teams in their division that will make it hard to get to the playoffs in good position. Having to travel on the road lowers every team's chance of winning, and when they have to do it multiple times in the same postseason? Good luck handling that gauntlet.

All five of these franchises have a legitimate chance of winning the Super Bowl, and they aren't awful bets, but when we're trying to pick one team out of 32 to call our “Best Bet,” the relatively low returns along with tough paths to greatness is enough to eliminate them for our purposes. It doesn't say anything about any of these teams individually that I'm including them in this group.

Not Quite There

Los Angeles Chargers +2600

Dallas Cowboys +4900

Longer odds here but still teams who I don't see as really being legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Chargers have a coach/quarterback combo that could get them there, with Jim Harbaugh having previous success and Justin Herbert being regarded as one of the most talented QBs in the league. LA has built a solid offensive line and notable players elsewhere, but the pass rush might not keep up, with Khalil Mack as the only guy I really trust.

The Cowboys are the Cowboys. They have high-level talent, and Dak Prescott is there holding down the quarterback spot, but he's not a top passer, and first-time head coach Brian Schottenheimer will have to prove he can handle the position and elevate his team. The ongoing contract dispute with maybe their best player, Micah Parsons, doesn't portend good things. And while I don't expect Dallas to trade their superstar defender, the discontent can't help the locker room or their new head coach.

Contenders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2900

Arizona Cardinals +4200

Now we're getting to the teams who really stand out. This is a good time to remember that we're talking about “Best Bet” in terms of the teams who offer the best combination of return on investment and chances to win, so while the Bucs and Cardinals aren't likely to be there at the end, they do have rosters with high-level talent and a path to the postseason.

Tampa Bay has won their division four straight years, the past two with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. They are replacing their offensive coordinator for the second straight year, but this team has looked good no matter who has called plays, and they have maybe the best group of wide receivers in football and an offensive line that ranked fifth in pass block win rate and sixth in run block win rate last season (by ESPN's measure). They are heavy favorites in their division, and if the other NFC contenders beat each other up along the way, Tampa could sneak into the top seed in the conference.

The Cardinals might be the third- or fourth-best team in their division on paper, but they have spent the past few offseasons adding potentially top-line talent. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.; defensive linemen Josh Sweat, Walter Nolen III, Dalvin Tomlinson, Calais Campbell, and Darius Robinson; cornerback Will Johnson; these are all names that every team would love to have, and Arizona has added all of them. Throw in a competent quarterback in Kyler Murray and an average-or-better offensive line, and this team has a baseline of talent that could win a division in flux.

Best Bet

Denver Broncos +2900

This hurts me. As a Raiders fan, Denver was my first hate. John Elway; the less I say about him, the better. The Broncos look ready to compete with the Chiefs for the division, though, and could win at the highest level.

Let's start with the defense, which might be the best in the league. Denver was second in pass rush win rate and eighth in run stop win rate last season. They allowed the third-fewest points, third-fewest rushing yards, and third-fewest yards per pass attempt. They return stars like defensive end Zach Allen and cornerback Pat Surtain II. The Broncos also added first-round cornerback Jahdae Barron and two high-level defenders who have dealt with recent injuries in linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga.

The offense is no slouch, either. The O-line ranked first in both pass block win rate and run block win rate in 2024, and quarterback Bo Nix was an average player as a rookie (a difficult task) while working with one of the best offensive coaches of his era in Sean Payton. The main pieces are back, and we can throw in pass-catching tight end Evan Engram and second-round rookie running back RJ Harvey. There is a lot of talent on this offense who can help the team not just keep up but also push the Broncos forward.

Given a decent return on investment, a phenomenal defense, and a potentially above-average offense, Denver has everything needed to be a good bet to win the Super Bowl. It's not the most likely outcome, but if I were going to throw down a few bucks, I would choose the Broncos.