AFC Champion Best Bets: Which Team Gives the Best Value?

We're in the slowest part of the NFL calendar. It might not seem that way given the fireworks of the recent Jalen Ramsey/Minkah Fitzpatrick trade, but there is very little player movement going on, and we won't get much until rosters start getting finalized, which will happen in mid-to-late August. We'll be getting to the season by that point, but it's one last flurry before getting into the meat of the NFL year.

With that being the case, gambling and fantasy football are the main topics at hand when talking about the NFL. Each year, I like to look at which team have interesting odds to win their conference and/or the Super Bowl. Vegas sets odds both based on what they think will happen and where they think the most money will be bet, so savvy bettors can sometimes find nice odds on a team that is forgotten.

Let's go through the betting odds for every AFC team to determine who might be the best bets for AFC Champion in 2025. This doesn't mean the team that will finish in first place in the regular season but rather the group that will emerge to play in the Super Bowl. That makes it a little tougher because of the nature of the single-elimination tournament that is the playoffs, but we have a good idea of who we think has a real chance to play in the biggest game of the season.

The betting odds listed below are from FanDuel. It's important to remember that “best bet” doesn't mean the team most likely to win; this is about the return on investment and who both has a decent chance to win and a good number coming back.

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Too Short of Odds

Buffalo Bills +360

Baltimore Ravens +370

Kansas City Chiefs +400

One of these three teams will probably win the AFC; it's the reason those numbers are so short. Every team other than the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs has Conference Champion odds of +1000 or more. If you want to simply win the bet, one of these teams is the place to look.

We're not looking at simply winning the bet, though. This is about the best bet based on the return, and these numbers are too small given the randomness of sports, especially football. These three are essentially a toss-up to win the AFC, and for good reason, but the odds are far too short for me to consider them as best bets.

No Realistic Chance of Winning

New York Jets +9500

Tennessee Titans +10000

Cleveland Browns +12000

This is the opposite side: these three teams have the biggest payouts on winning the AFC. Being I just made the argument that numbers too low are bad bets, you might think that numbers getting this high are generally good bets. For a bet to truly be good, though, there has to be a realistic chance of winning, and I just can't see that with these teams.

Anything can happen; we've seen crazy turnarounds and deep playoff runs before, and the biggest underdog can sometimes pull off the upset. There is a reason each team here is so far below the others, though (the Raiders are next closest at +5000).

Of this group, I like Tennessee the best. Cleveland has to compete with three potential playoff teams in their own division, while the Jets have to deal with the team with the best odds in the AFC (Buffalo), a group we saw as sneaky contenders last season (Miami), and maybe the most improved team in the NFL over the past two years on paper (New England, though multiple other teams could also argue for that spot).

The Titans play in maybe the weakest division in football. The Jaguars just had a top-five pick (even before trading up to No. 2 for Travis Hunter), and they hired a rookie head coach to try fixing a team that has severely underperformed the past few seasons. Indianapolis is the epitome of mediocre, and they just added Daniel Jones to have a legitimate competition with their underwhelming young top-five pick from a few years ago, Anthony Richardson Sr. Houston won the division for the second year in a row, but they regressed from 2023 and have a mostly rebuilt offensive line.

Tennessee added a lot of veteran talent last offseason, followed it up by importing even more talent this year, and drafted quarterback Cam Ward first overall. The argument here is to follow the blueprint of last year's Commanders, riding that veteran talent to a nice floor and having their high draft pick come in and play like a star immediately. Ward has a lot of similarities to Jayden Daniels, but he's not the same level of player, and it will be a major surprise to see him excel even close to the same way that Daniels did in 2024.

New Coach and/or Quarterback

Pittsburgh Steelers +2000

New England Patriots +3200

Jacksonville Jaguars +3400

Las Vegas Raiders +5000

Continuity isn't a prerequisite for success; we just talked about Washington last year, who not only drafted Daniels second overall but also hired Dan Quinn as their head coach, a successful defensive coach who has previously made a Super Bowl while leading the Atlanta Falcons (and should have won). Houston did the same thing in 2023 with C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.

Aaron Rodgers, Mike Vrabel, and Pete Carroll are all highly regarded players/coaches who have won Super Bowls (Vrabel as a player and not a coach, but still). They all have qualities that can make players around them better and elevate the team as a whole. Vegas' new quarterback, Geno Smith, hasn't won big, but he is a quality player at the most important position in the game, something the Raiders haven't had very often over the past few decades.

None of that seems likely to push their respective teams over the hump, though. There is lack of high-end talent elsewhere on each roster, even while there is plenty of quality, but it is a stretch to say any team in this group can win its division, let alone compete for the conference.

I didn't mention Jacksonville yet, where rookie head coach Liam Coen was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last year and before that did multiple stints both under Sean McVay in Los Angeles and at the University of Kentucky. He has a very limited track record, something that makes him an unknown who is taking over the Jaguars.

Maybe it will work out great; maybe it won't. It's tough to expect this group to take a major jump, though, unless Coen is an instant genius. I can't get over his intro press conference: DUUUUVAL! I have a friend who is sure Coen will fail because of that one moment; I don't agree, but I also kind of agree.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers +1300

Denver Broncos +1400

Both teams here are interesting for our purposes, as they have talented rosters with good veteran coaches. Justin Herbert has shown flashes of greatness but also disappointed at the biggest moments too often. Bo Nix played very competent football as a rookie, something that isn't as easy as some recent QBs have made it look. Both teams are likely to compete for the wild card.

That last point is important: Kansas City is a juggernaut who keeps adding talent while keeping the main pieces intact, particularly Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. They seemingly must have a down year some time, but they've been so consistent that it's hard to project a downfall without a major injury to Mahomes. Either LA or Denver wouldn't just need to have a great year but also see the team at the top of their division fall off.

If we had just one team in this division to choose as the usurper of the Chiefs, it would be easier, but here we are trying to make a 50/50 call on which team it might be. That's enough to make me skeptical of anyone other than KC in the AFC West, taking the Chargers and Broncos out of the running for our best bet.

Stuck in the Middle

Indianapolis Colts +3500

I mentioned it above: Jones and Richardson will be in a training camp battle, a fact that must be extremely disappointing for Colts fans and the front office alike. Richardson was drafted fourth overall in 2023 and appeared in just four games as a rookie due to injuries. He played 11 games last season, missing time both because of injury and getting benched. It seems like he is more likely to fizzle out than break out at this point; it's a major season in Richardson's career.

There is talent on the roster otherwise, but it's more good than great in a lot of places. The Colts have finished within one game of .500 in six of the past 10 seasons, a level of play that they seem likely to approximate again in 2025. That doesn't seem like a team that is going to fight for the Super Bowl.

Too Many Holes

Miami Dolphins +3500

Miami has lost a lot of talent the past few offseasons, including much of their offensive line and several impact players on defense. Last year, the Dolphins ranked 28th in pass blocking and 26th in run blocking (according to ESPN). That's not a good way to build a functional offense, and while they can improve, Miami needs to make a major leap to become even average.

Receiving Fitzpatrick in return for Ramsey seems to work in Miami's favor, but there's still plenty of missing talent, and having to overcome the steady Bills and improved Patriots and (maybe) Jets is a lot to count on when betting on the Dolphins to win big.

The Contenders

Cincinnati Bengals +1000

Houston Texans +1200

Sitting in this range means the return is just OK, but it also means we're looking at the next group of teams seen as most likely to win the conference after those top dogs. Houston regressed last season from 2023, even if they did win the division again. I mentioned above that the AFC South might be the worst division in football, and that's a major boon toward Houston's chances of making the playoffs.

They were 22nd in pass blocking and 31st in run blocking last season, and Houston went about completely revamping their offensive line, including trading left tackle Laremy Tunsil and signing Cam Robinson to replace him. The Texans are most likely to win their division, but they probably still aren't on the level of the top teams in the AFC.

Cincinnati missed the playoffs by one game last season, harboring one of the best offenses in football but a defense that gave up as much as they scored. They return most of the major players on offense, but the defense is even more of a question mark as they are struggling to come to terms with both leading sack man Trey Hendrickson and first-round pick Shemar Stewart.

Still, Joe Burrow played at an MVP level last season, and they have maybe the best receiver in football and the best No. 2 receiver in football on new contracts. The Bengals are in a spot to be prolific on offense again.

Best Bet for the AFC Champion: Cincinnati Bengals +1000

I don't really like any bet to win the AFC this season and won't be putting any money on it, but Cincinnati is the team I see most likely to make the Super Bowl while still returning enough on your investment to make it worth throwing down a few bucks.

Tennessee is also interesting based on their much longer odds, but I don't see Ward bursting onto the scene the way the top rookie quarterbacks have the past few years, and that leaves the Titans lacking the top-level talent to win big.