NFC Champion Best Bets: Can the Eagles, Lions and Commanders Repeat Their Performances at the Top of the Conference?

Yesterday, I ran through every team in the AFC to determine who might be the best bets to win the conference based both on their ability and the return on a theoretical bet. I pegged the Cincinnati Bengals (+1000) as my favorite group, with the Houston Texans (+1200) and Tennessee Titans (+10000) as others who piqued my interest.

I'm not going to place that bet, though; I don't feel good enough about the matching of value and likelihood to make the Super Bowl to put down real American dollars. Let's look at the other side today and determine which teams seem to offer the best outlook for a successful bet on the NFC Champion.

The betting odds listed below are from FanDuel. It's important to remember that “best bet” doesn't mean the team most likely to win. Instead, as mentioned above, we are melding the chance each team has to win with the return on investment from the bet. That means the best teams don't make the cut, which is where we'll start.

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Too Short of Odds

Philadelphia Eagles +360

Detroit Lions +550

I really wish we would have seen these teams face off in the NFC Championship Game last year. Washington handily beat the Lions in the Divisional Round, then Philadelphia easily dispatched the Commanders, taking away a lot of steam at the end of the NFC side of the bracket.

The teams are back mostly intact, but we don't know what 2025 will bring. Both Philly and Detroit seemed to be playing at peak levels heading into the playoffs, and we missed what could have been a magical game.

They are back as the favorites to win the conference, and rightfully so, but that means their odds are low enough to not offer great value on the return. It's likely one of these two teams will win the conference based on what we see on paper, but football is never that easy, and too much can happen in the span of four-plus months in the regular season, not to mention the single-elimination playoffs.

No Realistic Chance of Winning

Carolina Panthers +4800

New York Giants +11000

New Orleans Saints +15000

If odds too short are always bad, that means long odds should always be good, right? Not necessarily. For a bet to be considered “good,” it has to actually have a chance of winning. These three teams are furthest away from contention in this conference, both based on the betting odds and the eye test.

New Orleans will probably be starting second-round rookie Tyler Shough (pronounced Shuck) at quarterback, while the Giants have the barely warm bodies of Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston holding things down until rookie Jaxson Dart finally hits the field (likely by the end of this season).

The argument for the Panthers is that they have upgraded the talent greatly around Bryce Young the past two offseasons, and he looked good at the end of last year, showing he could be the guy in Carolina. There's still a lot needed to compete at the highest level though, leaving the Panthers lagging behind as conference (or even playoff) contenders.

Still Too Short of Odds?

Los Angeles Rams +800

San Francisco 49ers +950

Green Bay Packers +1000

Washington Commanders +1000

Minnesota Vikings +1000

Every team here could win their division and make the NFC Championship Game without a ton of surprise. Each of them also plays in a competitive division, though, and will have a battle to make the playoffs, let alone start competing for the conference.

The Rams and 49ers are rightfully favored to win the NFC West. LA took the division last year and has the slight advantage by the betting numbers, but it's a pretty tight race that depends on how San Francisco can overcome losing a lot of talent. They didn't flourish last year; San Fran lost as much time to injury from impact players last season as anyone else, and they felt the effects, finishing 6-11. Now, they are without Deebo Samuel Sr., Charvarius Ward, and others; it will be a lot to overcome, and these low odds don't make the 49ers a good bet.

Los Angeles brings back much of the same team, which makes them a division contender. The Rams were driving with a chance to win against the Eagles in the Divisional round of the playoffs, so they have shown a high level of play. With another team to fight for the division with and two other decent teams in the Cardinals and Seahawks, it will be tough for the Rams to repeat as NFC West champions, making their path to the Super Bowl a tough one.

The Packers and Vikings have the same idea, playing in a tougher division and having to face off with each other. That's enough to doubt their chances already, but then we have to take into account the Lions at the top of the division. A team doesn't have to win their division to win the conference and play in the Super Bowl, but they do have a tougher path toward winning big, and when the odds are good but not great (relatively), that's enough to eliminate them from the best bet conversation.

The Commanders made the Conference Championship Game last year, so there's no reason to think they can't make it back. As long as Jayden Daniels stays healthy, Washington has enough veteran talent to get back to double-digit wins (they were 12-5 last season). I like the idea of counting on the Commanders, but they have the defending champions to deal with in their own division and will probably have to fight for a wild card again.

These five teams all have a realistic shot of playing in the conference championship game and/or making the Super Bowl, but there is a lot going against them outside of their own control, meaning the shorter odds don't offer enough for me to call them possible best bets.

New Quarterback or Coach

Chicago Bears +2100

Dallas Cowboys +2200

Seattle Seahawks +2800

Atlanta Falcons +2900

Continuity is not a prerequisite for success. Last year, Washington made it all the way to the conference final with both a new coach and new quarterback, and the Texans won their division in 2023 with the same changes at the top of the hierarchy. With that in mind, it's still hard to peg any of these four teams as a real contender.

Atlanta had Michael Penix on the roster last season, and he played the final few games, but I'm treating him as a new QB because Kirk Cousins was on the field most in 2024, and Penix will be getting his first real run. The Falcons have gotten better around him, including adding two first-round pass rushers in the draft in an attempt to strengthen their weakest spot, but it feels like they are still short of the top level unless Penix comes out firing.

The Cowboys and Seahawks both have some really good players but also plenty of question marks, including their new respective coach/quarterback. Brian Schottenheimer was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach in Dallas when the Mike McCarthy wasn't retained, and he will be doing it for the first time. While Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons provide the high-impact talent, there is a lack of depth, and Dallas is a longshot to overcome those issues with the first-time head man.

Sam Darnold had a career renaissance in his one year with the Vikings, playing with superior talent and an offensive guru as his head coach. Before that, he was a below-average quarterback who looked more like a career journeyman rather than a former third overall pick. I see Darnold regressing this year in a worse offensive infrastructure, which would likely pull the team below the playoffs.

The most exciting team here (and one I consider as a contender for our best bet) is the Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams was the first overall pick last year, seen as a generational talent. It was a disappointing season, but the team doubled down on its big-ticket offense by hiring coach Ben Johnson from Detroit, where he was the offensive coordinator for one of the best offenses in football.

It's easy to look at Chicago and see a team about to break out, much like the Lions did with Johnson calling the plays. They added to the offensive line as well as adding another good receiver in the draft, and the Bears also brought in more talent on defense, where they probably needed the most help. The most likely scenario is that it takes the Bears a year to coalesce, especially in a good division where they are battling three 2024 playoff teams.

The Contenders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1300

Arizona Cardinals +2100

I talked about each team in the NFC West having a chance to win the division, and Arizona offers more than twice the return of the Rams and 49ers. Now, LA and San Fran are more likely to take the crown, but are they both more than twice as likely to win than Arizona? I don't know, but I'm leaning toward the Cardinals with the better return. They have added a ton of talent the past two offseasons and have a quarterback in Kyler Murray who is more than competent and can lead a winning team.

Tampa Bay plays in probably the weakest division in the NFC, and they have won the division four straight seasons. The offense is an above-average group, and the defense has playmakers at every level, including Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Antoine Winfield Jr. This is a team that could even back into the top seed in the NFC if some of the other contenders beat each other up within their division and the South stays weak.

NFC Champion Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1300

The return isn't as great as some of the other intriguing teams, including Arizona, but Tampa might have the clearest path to the playoffs of all the teams in their same odds range. While the Vikings, Packers, 49ers, and more will be facing off regularly, the Bucs will get six games against their own weaker division on top of playing against the NFC West and AFC East.

Like my pick for the AFC, I don't see this as a good enough bet to really lay down money, but if I had to choose, I would go with the Buccaneers for their mix of talent, path to the playoffs, and return on investment.