Fantasy Baseball Draft Steals: 5 Starting Pitchers Who Could Outperform ADP

After just taking a look at fantasy baseball starting pitcher busts, let's go over five possible draft steals.

This is the final story in our draft bust/steal series.

Here are the other positions we've covered so far: relief pitchers (steals and busts), second basemen (steals and busts), first basemen (steals and busts), catchers (steals and busts) outfielders (steals and busts), shortstops (steals and busts) and third basemen (steals and busts).

Fantasy baseball average draft position data can be found on FantasySP. Draft Genius now has custom head-to-head scoring options and on demand AI expert help for every pick.

Hunter Brown - Houston Astros

Brown is the 10th starting pitcher off draft boards, going near pick 30 on average. Despite the early draft pick, I still think Brown could be a draft steal.

Brown was the No. 7 fantasy SP last season, and that includes two-way star Shohei Ohtani. He's already proved he can outperform his ADP, so I'm confident in saying that he can be a steal.

He's improved greatly with each season, and he could just keep improving as he nears his prime years. In 31 starts last year, Brown was 12-9 with a 2.43 earned run average. He has 206 strikeouts over 185 1/3 innings.

Brown is primed for another big season in Houston as the team's ace. An improvement on his win-loss record could help him to a bigger season, and there's always a chance he strikes out more batters over more innings. He could end up being a draft steal as a result.

Dylan Cease - Toronto Blue Jays

Cease is the 19th pitcher taken so far. He's going near pick 63 on average.

He's 30 years old, so he should be in his prime. Cease is coming off a rough season, so I have him bouncing back, like so many others do. In 32 starts, Cease was 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA. He struck out 215 batters over 168 frames.

He has a career 3.88 ERA, so even a return to that mark could lead to him being a big draft steal. More innings and strikeouts could push Cease into the top 10 among starting pitchers, so that's why I like him to be a draft steal.

I like him joining the Blue Jays as well, as they are a good team and have a good pitching staff that should aid in a bounceback campaign for Cease.

Jesus Luzardo - Philadelphia Phillies

Luzardo is the No. 20 starting pitcher taken, and he's going near pick 65 on average.

Luzardo had a career year in 2025, which was his first year in Philly. I think he's going to take a step forward in his second year, which is his age-28 season. 

In 32 starts last year, Luzardo was 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA. He struck out 216 batters over 183 2/3 innings.

I see him working more innings in 2026, so more strikeouts should also happen. If he sticks near last year's ERA, or improves it, Luzardo could be a pretty easy draft steal, and push for a top-10 finish.

Nick Pivetta - San Diego Padres

Pivetta is being taken around pick 71, and is the No. 21 SP off draft boards.

He was just outside the top-10 fantasy SP last season, so I'm a bit surprised to see his ADP where it is. Some are expecting some regression from him in 2026, but I think he's still got room to be a draft steal.

Pivetta made 31 starts last season, going 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA. He struck out 190 batters over 181 2/3 innings. 

He has a career 4.47 ERA, so some regression is likely coming in that department. He's also 33 years old, so regression is probably more likely than another elite showing. I still think he becomes a draft steal because of his later ADP.

Ryan Pepiot - Tampa Bay Rays

Pepiot is way down at No. 32 on the ADP list among SPs. He's going near pick 113 on average.

He is coming off a full season, the first one he's posted in his career. If he stays healthy again, then I think Pepiot becomes a really big draft steal.

In 31 starts in 2025, he went 11-12 with a 3.86 ERA. Pepiot had 167 strikeouts over 167 2/3 innings. 

I think he's due for some win-loss improvement if he posts a similar ERA. An increase in innings/strikeouts could also boost his fantasy value. I believe he improves in a few areas and becomes one of the bigger fantasy draft steals for 2026.