MLB First Half Recap Expert Picks: Most Surprising, Disappointing Teams and Players

We like to call the pre-All-Star break the “first half” of the year, but we are closer to 60% of the way through the MLB season; close enough, right? Every team has around 65 games left to play. That's about 80% of the NBA and NHL season lengths, so a lot is still going to happen before we reach October.

The All-Star game is a logical time to take stock of what we've seen and make some predictions. Morgan Rode, Sheldon Moody, and Daniel Hepner answered five questions about the first half of the MLB season and what we might expect moving forward.

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1. Which team was your most pleasant surprise of the first half?

Sheldon: There is only one answer for me. As a Canadian whose primary sport is hockey, specifically being a die-hard Toronto Maple Leafs' fan, my pick is the Toronto Blue Jays. When they win, all of Canada cheers – and when they don't, we don't!

The Blue Jays won 10 straight games in a stretch from late June through early July and head into the All-Star break having won 15 of their past 21. In such a tough division, the top is not a place the Jays are used to sitting, but Canadians couldn't be happier.

Toronto's previous record for wins before the All-Star break was 53, but they have a 55-41 record right now. As a Toronto sports team, any sort of collapse is possible, but they are poised to ride the momentum of a winning culture that they haven't seen in a generation. Move over 1992 World Series Champions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his boys are here to make history!

Daniel: The Detroit Tigers lead the AL Central by 11.5 games, the widest margin by a full six games. Both their offense and pitching staff are in the back half of the top 10, making them a team that can truly contend once the playoffs arrive.

Part of the success might come from their worst-in-baseball division, where each of the other four teams are under .500 and have negative run differentials. Detroit has cleaned up against those teams, going 18-9, and they have six or seven games against each of the four in the second half, so the good times can keep rolling. The real test won't come until the playoffs against the best of the best.

Morgan: I don't mean to be a homer, but after the Tigers and Blue Jays, I'd say the Milwaukee Brewers have been the biggest surprises. They've had a good amount of regular season success over the years, and after losing Devin Williams and Willy Adames this offseason, all they have done is win 56 games so far.

The Crew is a game behind the Cubs for the top spot in the NL Central, and are the second-hottest team in baseball - only trailing the Red Sox. Milwaukee will need to make moves at the trade deadline in order to stick near the top of the league I think, but what they did in the first portion of the season has been surprising.

2. Who was the most disappointing team before the All-Star break?

Daniel: From 2017-21, the Baltimore Orioles had five straight losing seasons, three of them with a winning percentage below .400. They loaded up on talent in the draft during that time and went 275-211 the past three years, making the playoffs the last two. A team that looked to still have room to improve has tanked this season, sitting at 43-52 heading into the break.

They are 7.5 games out of a wild card spot; there's still a long way to go. Nothing about their performance points toward improvement coming, though, especially with a bottom-five pitching staff holding them back (while the offense is probably bottom-10). Baltimore is more likely to be sellers at the deadline with an eye on bouncing back in 2026.

Morgan: I'd say the Atlanta Braves are the most disappointing team so far. They sit at 42-53, are 12.5 games back of the NL East lead and are 9.5 games back of a wild card spot.

Atlanta looks like sellers unless they get really hot right after the All-Star break. I'm not sure the Braves are ready to break up their roster just yet though. I'm really intrigued to see what they decide to do if their winning ways don't come back soon.

3. Which player best exceeded expectations in the first half, and what do you expect from him after the All-Star break?

Daniel: What more can we say about Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh? He leads the league with 38 home runs and 82 RBI. His previous career highs were 34 homers and 100 RBI, both set last year, and he is far outpacing those numbers. His batting average (.259) is 27 points higher than his previous high, on-base (.376) 64 points higher, slugging (.634) 145 points higher, and OPS (1.011) 237 points higher.

Can he keep it up? I've mentioned him several times as a sell-high candidate in fantasy baseball because he has never put up numbers close to this before, but Raleigh keeps on mashing. I don't feel good betting against him at this point, though I still think he's due for some regression just by pure luck based on his previous level of play.

Morgan: I'd say that Geraldo Perdomo has been the biggest surprise. He has a .265 average and .370 OBP this season. Perdomo has a career .242 average and .337 OBP, so a little regression could be coming, but at the same time, he's just 25 years old, so getting better from past seasons isn't that crazy.

He already has a career high in homers and RBIs. Perdomo's numbers have dropped since a red-hot start to the season, but he's still one of the top fantasy players in points leagues so far. 

I expect Perdomo to remain a daily fantasy option for the remainder of the season, but for him to fall a bit from the top-end fantasy talents. That makes him a sell-high trade candidate.

4. Who disappointed you the most in the first half? Do you expect him to bounce back over the next few months?

Daniel: Looking toward the most disappointing teams is a good way to find disappointing players, so I'll circle back to the Orioles. While you could put several guys here, catcher Adley Rutschman stands out. He is still considered a very good defensive catcher, but Baltimore is expecting much more out of the former No. 1 overall pick.

Rutschman hasn't played since June 19, but he was playing poorly before that, with his lowest batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS of his career. Rutschman doesn't have to slug like Raleigh to be a valuable player, but he looks more like a rotation catcher than a top player at his position this season. Returning from injury gives him a chance at a bit of a fresh start, but I'm skeptical that he can really excel.

Morgan: I'd go with Yordan Alvarez. He went just outside the top-10 picks this season, but has been a bust between his production and injuries he's dealt with.

He's played in just 29 games so far. Alvarez had a .210 average and .306 OBP, and posted just three homers along the way.

If he ever gets back on the field, Alvarez has a great chance to bounce back from his early-season numbers. He could be a massive addition to any fantasy baseball squad.

5. What is your biggest and/or boldest prediction over the final 60-ish games of the season, whether it's about a team, a player, or anything else?

Daniel: The Texas Rangers will make the playoffs and win at least one series. I've been targeting the Rangers with opposing pitchers in fantasy baseball because they have a bottom-10 offense, something that was also true in 2024. It seems like they should be better given some of the names (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien), but Texas has a recent stretch of poor offensive play that's impossible to ignore.

Their pitching staff, on the other hand, has been a top-five unit. They have the best ERA in baseball by 0.21 points; that's the same distance that second-place Kansas City is from the ninth-place Tigers. They are also in the top five in least hits, runs, home runs, and walks allowed, directly resulting in their same lofty placement in WHIP and batting average allowed.

Several offensive upgrades have to be coming by the trade deadline; it would be malpractice by the front office not to make a push. This team won't win the division, but they are just 3.5 back in the wild card race. Their final nine games of the season are against the Marlins, Twins, and Guardians, all teams under .500 at the break. I see that final week-plus as their chance to push over the hump and into the postseason, where their pitchers can wreak havoc in short series.

Morgan: This would have been wilder to say at the start of the season, but I'm going to say the Los Angeles Dodgers won't have the No. 1 seed in the National League at the end of the regular season.

The Dodgers hold the top spot for now, but the Cubs and Phillies are hot on their tails, along with the Brewers and Mets. LA should still win its division, but playing against the Padres and Giants (and Diamondbacks, if they don't become sellers) will hold the Dodgers back from being the top seed.

In the end, all that matters to LA is another World Series title, but not being the best team in the NL is wild for having the amount of talent it does.