Does the Home Run Derby Affect Player Performance? Possible Implications for Teoscar Hernandez, Bobby Witt Jr, Jose Ramirez, and More

We often believe in colloquial things more than actual facts in sports: “It’s tough to beat a team three times in one season,” or, “They’re just too young to win.” They are phrases we’ve heard people say for a long time, so repeating them sounds like you know what you’re talking about.

There’s one I remember with the Home Run Derby, that swinging for the fences messed up a guy’s swing, and he performed worse in the ensuing months. I never believed it; one batting practice session trying to put the ball out of the ballpark isn’t enough to undo countless hours of work and muscle memory.

There is a way to check the facts against the stories, though, and that’s what I set out to do. There had been three Derbys since the contest was cancelled in the Covid season of 2020, each with similar rules to this year’s contest with timed rounds.

Separating before and after the All-Star game, I compared the batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and at-bats-per-home-run rate of each Home Run Derby participant from 2021-2023. The results showed that this was more of a myth than a warning to future big swingers.

Results

*The full results are listed at the bottom of the page to keep things more user-friendly

Each season (eight participants every year) had about four guys hit noticeably better in the second half, three guys hit noticeably worse, and one batter stayed about the same. In other words, it was random with no clear evidence either way.

Players who enter the Derby are either stars or guys having a big season. It makes sense that at least a few of those who had big first halves would calm down and fall back to Earth in the second half.

Just as many (or more) players improved markedly in the second half; it would be wrong to say the Derby helps guys just as much as it is to say it hurts anyone. Really, the Home Run Derby has no clear effect on player performance, the same as the Slam Dunk and Three-Point Competitions don’t affect NBA players.

Fantasy Advice

Don’t run out and trade Teoscar Hernandez, Bobby Witt Jr. and the other 2024 participants. If someone wants to overpay for Hernandez because of his big performance, that’s a good chance to take advantage, but that’s more situational.

With home runs in mind, it’s a good idea to look at where you are in categories of Roto fantasy leagues and see where you want to compete for points. If you are way back in a category, like saves, it might not be the best plan to chase late inning guys. In a category where you are competitive with multiple teams, you can gain more points with just a little improvement from the trade market.

Yearly Results

Below are the full results each season with batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage/OPS being followed by the rate of at-bats per home run. The top numbers are before the All-Star break, and the bottom numbers are after the break:

2021

Pete Alonso

Before All-Star: .249/.326/.477/.802  16.3

After All-Star: .275/.361/.560/.921  14.2

 

Joey Gallo

.239/.402/.522/.923  11.5

.149/.283/.378/.661  15.9

 

Trey Mancini

.256/.332/.460/.791  20.3

.254/.319/.392/.711  46.4

 

Shohei Ohtani

.279/.364/.698/1.062  9.1

.229/.382/.458/.839  18.2

 

Matt Olson

.282/.371/.567/.938  13.6

.257/.372/.506/.878  15.8

 

Salvador Perez

.275/.300/.501/.802  17.3

.269/.334/.598/.932  10.0

 

Juan Soto

.283/.407/.445/.852  24.7

.348/.525/.639/1.164  12.8

 

Trevor Story

.249/.323/.442/.765  25.9

.253/.337/.506/.843  18.5

 

2022

Ronald Acuna Jr.

.265/.363/.413/.776  28.8

.266/.338/.414/.752  33.9

 

Pete Alonso

.265/.339/.517/.857  14.3

.281/.369/.518/.887  15.8

 

Albert Pujols

.215/.301/.376/.676  24.8

.323/.388/.715/1.103  8.8

 

Jose Ramirez

.288/.368/.576/.944  17.4

.269/.339/.439/.778  27.1

 

Julio Rodriguez

.275/.337/.477/.814  21.6

.303/.361/.576/.937  13.8

 

Kyle Schwarber

.208/.317/.503/.820  11.6

.232/.331/.506/.837  14.2

 

Corey Seager

.251/.324/.480/.804  15.7

.235/.307/.421/.728  22.5

 

Juan Soto

.250/.405/.497/.901  15.6

.231/.396/.387/.783  30.3

 

2023

Pete Alonso

.211/.310/.497/.807  11.7

.224/.326/.511/.837  13.2

 

Randy Arozarena

.279/.388/.467/.855  19.7

.220/.331/.369/.700  33.7

 

Mookie Betts

.276/.379/.586/.964  12.8

.347/.448/.570/1.018  19.3

 

Adolis Garcia

.262/.331/.517/.848  15.1

.217/.322/.493/.815  12.9

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

.274/.344/.443/.787  26.4

.251/.346/.444/.790  19.9

 

Luis Robert Jr.

.271/.330/.569/.899  13.0

.251/.291/.498/.789  17.3

 

Julio Rodriguez

.249/.310/.411/.721  28.1

.308/.363/.578/.941  15.2

 

Adley Rutschman

.273/.376/.423/.799  27.2

.282/.372/.450/.822  32.8