June 21 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers: Chris Paddack, Jose Quintana, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Rogers

FantasySP’s Morgan Rode recently wrote an article highlighting teams to avoid with opposing pitchers in fantasy baseball; essentially, it was the opposite of what we do here. Knowing who to avoid can be as important as knowing who to target.

Fantasy football analogies often make things easier: Remember when Darrelle Revis was at the height of his powers and shutting down every receiver in the league? Even with the two best Johnsons, Calvin and Andre, fantasy owners had to think twice before starting any wide receiver against the Jets.

It can be the same with starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. Even aces sometimes struggle against the best offenses, so it’s worth investigating each matchup. On the other end, you can pick on those weak lineups; that’s more fun.

Let’s look at Friday’s probable starters (according to MLB.com) who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups, creating streaming value. Most stats and rankings are from MLB. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays sit in the bottom six in runs scored, hits, home runs and slugging percentage. Only one player, outfielder Daulton Varsho, has at least 10 home runs; just two qualified hitters are batting over .240. This is an offense that has been sputtering all season.

Carrasco only has fantasy value against the worst lineups. He holds a significantly below-average strikeout rate and an ERA near 6.00. Despite a recent string of weak offensive opponents, Carrasco hasn’t found any consistent success, allowing at least five runs in five of his last eight starts (some of those runs were unearned).

Carrasco is just a low-level streamer. On top of his low K rate, Toronto doesn’t strike out much, so Carrasco must hope for a long outing with few runs allowed to find big value.

Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics

The only thing Oakland does well is hit home runs, ranking sixth among all teams. They are in the bottom five in runs scored, hits, batting average and on-base percentage. Most importantly for opposing pitchers, A’s batters have struck out the second most in the league, 748 times. A bad offense with a lot of swing-and-miss is a great start for fantasy value.

Paddack has been just a hair below average striking batters out, but he doesn’t walk very many, something that has been true his whole career. He has also struck more guys out in the past, but he threw less than 30 innings in 2022-23, so he might still be regaining his form. Paddack has been a serviceable starter.

As such, Paddack is a mid-level streamer in this one. He has a chance to rack up some Ks and have a decent outing against a spotty offense.

Jose Quintana, New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs

Quintana mirrors Carrasco in that he previously did above-average strikeout work but has seen that number dip over the last few years to a well below-average rate in 2024. As his strikeout rate has dropped between 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, his ERA has risen at the same time.

The Cubs aren’t a bad offensive team, but they also have weaknesses, most notably ranking in the bottom 10 in hits and batting average. They are also in the top 10 in most batter strikeouts, allowing for a high ceiling on the right day. Chicago is a middling matchup and worth targeting in certain situations.

Quintana is a low-level streamer against his former team. He isn’t pitching to his previous level from even several years ago, especially in terms of strikeouts, and doesn’t have a high ceiling.

Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins vs. Seattle Mariners

I mentioned above that Oakland hitters have struck out the second most; well, the team above them is the Mariners. Also like the A’s, Seattle hits home runs and doesn’t do much else, ranking in the bottom 10 in runs scored and hits. (Oakland doesn’t have the advantage of great pitching like the Mariners do, so they will stay at the bottom of their division.)

After Rogers sported an above-average strikeout rate in each previous season (totaling 286 innings), he has a well below-average rate this year. Like Paddack, part of that may be his recovery from injury, as Rogers made just four starts last year, but it’s a striking difference from his career work (no pun intended). It might just be the oddities of a small sample, too.

Rogers is a mid-level streamer here with a little upside. His past strikeout work matches up well with Seattle, so he might have a chance at a big day.

Friday’s Streamer Rankings

1. Chris Paddack, MIN
2. Trevor Rogers, MIA
3. Jose Quintana, NYM
4. Carlos Carrasco, CLE