Fantasy Baseball ADP Notes for Pitchers

Discussing some recent ADP trends as the fantasy baseball season gets ready to kick off.

The MLB regular season is nearly here, so fantasy baseball draft season is nearly over.

For those of you still needing to draft, this article is for you. I decided to dig through the FantasySP Average Draft Position list and discuss some things that caught my eye. 

We’ll focus on pitchers here after talking about the hitters already.

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Overall Thoughts

I’ve mentioned this in some earlier stories, but I believe pitchers are going too early in fantasy drafts. Things have gotten a little better since some of those stories - likely because the injuries to guys like Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman show fantasy owners that even a short-term injury can greatly affect a pitcher’s fantasy outlook.

A quick look at leading scorers in points leagues from 2023 show that there’s more hitters than pitchers at the top end of things. 

You could look at that in a couple different ways. On one hand, that means that hitters are likely going to be the top fantasy options on your team, but it also suggests to grab pitching as early as often, because there’s more hitters out there.

I tend to focus on hitting early in fantasy drafts, because your margin for error increases. If you take hitting early and often, those are guys that are in the lineup just about every day, and can consistently help your team, while a starter is out there once or twice a week, and closers only usually appear 3-4 times a week at most. 

You can’t really prepare for injuries, but a short-term injury to a batter only means 10 or so days out of action, while a pitcher is forced to miss at least 15 days minimum, which is three starts (and often miss more time after that). 

It just makes sense in my mind to not spend top-end picks on pitchers unless someone falls into your lap.I just come away from drafts far more confident when I’m taking hitters early instead of pitchers, but everyone can employ whatever strategy makes them most comfortable.

Starting Pitchers

Looking at actual ADP data now, let’s first discuss starting pitchers.

Spencer Strider is now the clear cut No. 1 option after the injury to Cole. Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Gausman, Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez are part of the next tier of SP. Even after pick 50, there’s some elite options out there, like Logan Gilbert and Blake Snell. 

You can find team’s No. 1 SP throughout the draft, and there’s several guys who are even streaming options as the season begins. 

There’s also a number of pitchers that are injured to start the season, but will be great fantasy assets when they return this season. 

If you are in a dynasty league, it’s a good idea to stash as many pitchers as you can but in redraft leagues, especially standard ones, there’s going to be talent available throughout the season. You could play matchups all season and find plenty of fantasy success that way. 

So when you are going through a fantasy draft, you obviously want to find a few starting pitchers you can rely on, but if some guys struggle during the season, there’s bound to be some other options out there, so don't panic too much during the draft.

Relief Pitchers

The ADP for relief pitchers has dropped a bit since draft season started. 

The injury to Devin Williams has left Josh Hader, Camilo Doval, Emmanuel Clase and Edwin Diaz as the top fantasy relief options. All are going within four picks of each other according to FSP ADP data.

If you’ve followed along with some of my draft coverage this spring, you know I don’t like spending picks before round 10 on closers. I just think you can wait to draft closers and get back plenty of production still, even if it’s five-plus rounds later.

Some of the closers available after pick 100 are David Bednar, Andres Munoz, Clay Holmes, and Paul Sewald. Guys like Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Alex Lange are all going after pick 150.

Look at the top closers from 2023, there were 12 guys with over 30 saves, and an additional five that had 25 or more saves. Just because you don’t have one of the “elite” fantasy closers doesn’t mean doesn’t mean your pitcher couldn’t be one of the best fantasy options. 

I simply try to target as many projected closers as I can. The more closing experience they have in their career, the more confident I am in them retaining the role for the entire season. 

I’ve seen it in all kinds of league formats where fantasy teams win with some elite closer options, but also some with no closers at all. That’s the beauty of fantasy baseball - there are a bunch of different ways to succeed.

The most important thing is to have a plan going into your draft. I’m simply offering some of my experience and tips/tricks I’ve used over the years. Be sure to study your league’s settings to see which strategy might work best for you.

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