Corbin Burnes Trending Toward Being Overvalued in Fantasy Baseball Leagues

After looking at some overvalued fantasy hitters, let's do the same for fantasy pitchers.

Check out yesterday's stories on undervalued players (pitchers and hitters).

Explore the best in-season tool to manage lineup/start decisions including waiver pickups, projections, trade suggestions, trade value charts, rest of season rankings, power rankings, and tons more with Fantasy Assistant.

Starting Pitchers

Corbin Burnes is my first overvalued fantasy starting pitcher. He's owned in all fantasy leagues and has scored just 27 fantasy points so far.

He's got a 4.64 earned run average through four starts, and doesn't have a win yet. Burnes' best fantasy assets over the years have been a low ERA and big strikeout numbers. His ERA is over 1.4 points higher than his career mark, and he's got just 17 strikeouts over 21 1/3 innings.

I thought he was overrated to begin the season, but still thought he'd be a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher performer by the end of the season. 

I don't think Burnes can reach that level anymore, and would try to sell him before he gets more starts in. I'm not suggesting you drop Burnes, but his big name should help you move him in a trade. 

Seth Lugo is another overvalued fantasy starting pitcher for me. He's owned in 90% of leagues still, but has just 44 fantasy points over five starts.

Lugo was a breakout fantasy asset in 2024, but seems to be regressing in 2024. His ERA is up 0.9 and his strikeout numbers have fallen 1.6 per nine innings.

Lugo's 2024 success was going to be hard to replicate because he earned a ton of fantasy points with 16 wins. He has just one win early on, while being 1/3 of the way to his losses in less than 1/6 of the starts.

He might revert back to being a better deep-league fantasy asset this season, but still be a standard league streaming option. Lugo could maybe still be traded if anyone thinks he's going to bounce back, but he'll likely be dropped more and more if his numbers don't improve.

Roki Sasaki is another starter who could be classified as overvalued right now. He's owned in 95% of leagues synced here at FantasySP, yet has just 30 fantasy points across five starts.

He's given up runs in every start, but no more than two. The big problem for Sasaki has been innings pitched. He only has topped five innings twice, although they have come over his past two outings.

He's a highly-regarded international player, but the start to his season has been shaky, at best. He's been dropped by a few fantasy owners, and really would be less rostered if not for his preseason expectations and the team he's on.

I'd look into trading him if you don't believe in him long term. He's built up a little value over the past two starts, which could ease the mind of a lot of fantasy owners. If he starts struggling again, that trade value will disappear, and your only roster move might be to drop him.

Aaron Nola is still owned in 97% of fantasy leagues despite having scored just 20 fantasy points so far.

He's 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA early on, with 31 strikeouts over 28 innings and a high 1.61 WHIP. Nola's career numbers are much better, so I get why he's being held onto in most leagues.

Nola hasn't been good early on, and struggles for too much longer could force fantasy owners into moving him. He's bound to improve as the season improves, but if you think he's starting to regress as he ages, now might be your best time to trade him away.

He could become droppable with another poor start or two.

Relief Pitchers

Felix Bautista is a bit overvalued right now, in my opinion.

There were high hopes he'd come back from a season away and immediately be a top-end fantasy reliever again. Well, he's scored just 21 fantasy points, yet is still owned in 92% of leagues.

Bautista got off to a slow start, but hasn't allowed a run in four straight outings. His WHIP is too high right now though, so even though he's been a better fantasy performer of late, he's still not been a top-end option.

Some fantasy owners might be willing to trade for Bautista in standard leagues, but if he doesn't return to the lights-out reliever he once was soon, he'll be more droppable in standard leagues.