| IP | ERA | W-L | K/BB | K/9 | WHIP | FSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70.0 | 4.76 | 2-4 | 55/21 | 7.1 | 1.21 | 10.17 |
| Compared to same point last season | ||||||
| 42.0 | 3.43 | 2-1 | 35/11 | 7.5 | 1.00 | |
Nelson Carries Strong Recent Ratios Into a Dangerous Matchup
Nelson has been in excellent form recently, posting a stellar 3.24 ERA and an elite 0.99 WHIP over his last 30 days. He currently slots in as the number two starter in the rotation for the third-place Diamondbacks, who hold a 32-29 record. Nelson remains healthy, though he faces a slightly depleted lineup behind him with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. sidelined.
This recent run is a massive improvement over his overall 2026 numbers, where he carries a 5.06 ERA. Our season projection expects him to settle in with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 161.0 innings. While the 30-day streak is highly encouraging, his low strikeout rate suggests some regression toward his projected mid-4.00s ERA is likely.
Looking ahead, Nelson is scheduled for a single start on June 4th at home against the division-rival Dodgers. It is a highly demanding matchup against opposing starter Justin Wrobleski, who has excelled with a 2.87 ERA this season. While our weekly model projects a strong 2.96 ERA over 7.2 innings, the powerful Dodgers offense makes him a risky play, so we recommend you Sit him.
Updated 1 day ago
| DATE | OPP | INN | PC | K | WLK | ER | DEC | ERA | WHIP | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04 | LAD | 7.0 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 2 | N/A | 4.76 | 1.21 | 15 | |
| 05/30 | @SEA | 5.1 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 4 | LOSS | 5.00 | 1.24 | 1 | |
| 05/24 | COL | 8.0 | 103 | 3 | 3 | 1 | WIN | 4.84 | 1.23 | 22 | |
| 05/19 | SF | 7.0 | 88 | 3 | 2 | 3 | N/A | 5.44 | 1.25 | 12 | |
| 05/13 | @TEX | 7.0 | 88 | 8 | 0 | 3 | N/A | 5.70 | 1.22 | 20 | |
| 05/08 | NYM | 6.2 | 95 | 7 | 1 | 1 | N/A | 6.06 | 1.35 | 21 | |
| 05/02 | @CHC | 5.2 | 84 | 4 | 2 | 1 | LOSS | 7.14 | 1.55 | 6 | |
| 04/26 | SD | 5.0 | 93 | 4 | 2 | 6 | N/A | 7.71 | 1.52 | 4 | |
| 04/19 | TOR | 0.1 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 8 | LOSS | 6.97 | 1.45 | -16 | |
| 04/13 | @BAL | 5.1 | 92 | 7 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 3.54 | 1.03 | 14 | |
| 04/08 | @NYM | 5.2 | 86 | 5 | 0 | 1 | WIN | 4.20 | 1.07 | 18 | |
| 04/02 | ATL | 4.2 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 2 | LOSS | 5.79 | 1.18 | 2 | |
| 03/27 | @LAD | 4.2 | 83 | 4 | 3 | 4 | N/A | 7.72 | 1.07 | 7 | |
| Totals: | 70.0 | 1115 | 55 | 21 | 37 | 125 | |||||
| YEAR | TM | APP | INN | PC | K | WLK | SV | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ARI | 3 | 19.0 | 253 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 1.42 | 0.79 | 7.6 | 48 |
| 2023 | ARI | 32 | 145.2 | 2468 | 103 | 47 | 0 | 8-8 | 5.5 | 1.48 | 6.4 | 228 |
| 2024 | ARI | 28 | 146.0 | 2406 | 126 | 34 | 1 | 10-6 | 4.38 | 1.29 | 7.8 | 323 |
| 2025 | ARI | 33 | 151.2 | 2466 | 132 | 41 | 1 | 7-3 | 3.44 | 1.09 | 7.8 | 358 |
| 2026 | ARI | 13 | 70.0 | 1115 | 55 | 21 | 0 | 2-4 | 4.76 | 1.21 | 7.1 | 125 |
| ON PACE | 33 | 183 | 2913 | 143 | 54 | 0 | 5-10 | 4.76 | 1.21 | 7.1 | 327 | |
| 3-YEAR AVG | 31 | 147 | 2447 | 120 | 41 | 1 | 8-6 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 7.4 | 303 | |
| Career | 109 | 530.0 | 8708 | 432 | 149 | 0 | 0-0 | 4.38 | 1.26 | 7.3 | ||
| ERA | WHIP | QS | WINS | SO | K/BB | K/9 | IP | LOSSES | PC | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.571 | 1.000 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 14.5 |
| ERA | WHIP | QS | WINS | SO | K/BB | K/9 | IP | LOSSES | PC | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | NAN |
| NAME | OWN | START |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno | 50% | 45% |
| Adrian Del Castillo | 2% | 1% |
| NAME | OWN | START |
|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | 70% | 55% |
| Nolan Arenado | 47% | 42% |
| Jose Fernandez | 9% | 6% |
| Pavin Smith | 1% | 1% |
| Carlos Santana | 1% | 0% |
| NAME | OWN | START |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 100% | 91% |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 91% | 83% |
| Jordan Lawlar | 10% | 0% |
| NAME | OWN | START |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 100% | 97% |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 33% | 27% |
| Tommy Troy | 7% | 5% |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4% | 0% |
| Druw Jones | 1% | 0% |
| NAME | OWN | START |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | 85% | 56% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 79% | 46% |
| Merrill Kelly | 58% | 37% |
| Ryne Nelson | 49% | 35% |
| Zac Gallen | 47% | 34% |
| Corbin Burnes | 32% | 0% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 6% | 5% |
| NAME | OWN | START |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Sewald | 75% | 74% |
| Juan Morillo | 13% | 12% |
| Taylor Clarke | 11% | 8% |
| Kevin Ginkel | 3% | 3% |
| A.J. Puk | 3% | 0% |
| Brandyn Garcia | 1% | 1% |
| Team | W-L | Win % | GB | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-23 | .635 | - | 330 | 197 | |
| 33-29 | .532 | 6.5 | 276 | 272 | |
| 32-29 | .525 | 7 | 235 | 245 | |
| 25-38 | .397 | 15 | 250 | 313 | |
| 24-39 | .381 | 16 | 272 | 355 |
| Player | GP | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Del Castillo | 40 | 120 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 20 | 0 | .192 | |
| Gabriel Moreno | 39 | 130 | 20 | 33 | 3 | 19 | 3 | .254 | |
| James McCann | 22 | 59 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 0 | .203 | |
| Aramis Garcia | 6 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .154 |
| Player | GP | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | 55 | 212 | 30 | 60 | 7 | 37 | 1 | .283 | |
| Jose Fernandez | 55 | 165 | 23 | 42 | 3 | 15 | 7 | .255 | |
| Carlos Santana | 8 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .083 | |
| Pavin Smith | 6 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .077 | |
| Luken Baker | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 |
| Player | GP | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 59 | 233 | 37 | 60 | 11 | 37 | 0 | .258 |
| Player | GP | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 57 | 190 | 29 | 50 | 8 | 30 | 1 | .263 |
| Player | GP | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo | 59 | 204 | 27 | 47 | 3 | 22 | 8 | .230 | |
| Jordan Lawlar | 6 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .333 |
| Player | GP | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 59 | 219 | 39 | 64 | 9 | 30 | 7 | .292 | |
| Alek Thomas | 28 | 94 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 4 | .181 | |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 25 | 92 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 1 | .228 | |
| Jorge Barrosa | 44 | 92 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 0 | .174 | |
| Tim Tawa | 29 | 59 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 0 | .169 | |
| Tommy Troy | 11 | 32 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .281 | |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 26 | 86 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 5 | .291 |
| Player | GP | W | L | SV | IP | SO | ERA | WHIP | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 67.0 | 66 | 3.49 | 1.19 | |
| Ryne Nelson | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 72.1 | 55 | 4.60 | 1.18 | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 72.1 | 52 | 2.24 | 1.19 | |
| Zac Gallen | 13 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 64.1 | 43 | 5.32 | 1.52 | |
| Merrill Kelly | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 53.1 | 33 | 5.06 | 1.46 | |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 38.0 | 31 | 5.92 | 1.50 |
| Player | GP | W | L | SV | IP | SO | ERA | WHIP | O/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Sewald | 26 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 23.1 | 26 | 3.47 | 0.73 | |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | 26 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23.0 | 15 | 3.13 | 1.22 | |
| Juan Morillo | 27 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 25.0 | 32 | 2.52 | 1.08 | |
| Joe Ross | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2 | 19.64 | 3.00 | |
| Taylor Clarke | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26.0 | 13 | 1.73 | 0.73 | |
| Kevin Ginkel | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24.1 | 29 | 2.96 | 1.03 | |
| Ryan Thompson | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21.1 | 14 | 2.53 | 1.22 | |
| Andrew Hoffmann | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11.2 | 12 | 7.71 | 2.06 | |
| Taylor Rashi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 4 | 9.82 | 1.09 | |
| Brandyn Garcia | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.0 | 11 | 0.69 | 0.77 | |
| Philip Abner | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 7.71 | 0.86 |
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| DATE | OPP | SCORE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-01 | LAD | W 4-1 | Eduardo Rodriguez Emmet Sheehan |
| 06-02 | LAD | L 5-6 | Michael Soroka Eric Lauer |
| 06-03 | LAD | L 0-7 | Zac Gallen Shohei Ohtani |
| 06-04 | LAD | W 3-2 | Ryne Nelson Justin Wrobleski |
| 06-05 | WAS | 09:40 EDT | Merrill Kelly Foster Griffin |
| 06-06 | WAS | 04:10 EDT | Eduardo Rodriguez Zack Littell |
| 06-07 | WAS | 03:15 EDT | Michael Soroka Cade Cavalli |
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| J.T. Ginn ATH SP | +6.8 |
| Nick Gonzales PIT 3B | +6.6 |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY 1B | +5.8 |
| Anthony Kay CHW SP | +5.5 |
| Brandon Young BAL SP | +5.5 |
| Roki Sasaki LAD SP | +5.2 |
| Kumar Rocker TEX SP | +4.9 |
| Noelvi Marte CIN RF | +4.5 |
| Coleman Crow MIL SP | +4.2 |
| Martin Perez ATL SP | +3.2 |
| Kyle Leahy STL SP | +3.1 |
| Carson Benge NYM RF | +3.0 |
| Christian Scott NYM SP | +2.9 |
| Gage Jump ATH SP | +2.9 |
| Jared Jones PIT SP | +2.7 |
| Taj Bradley MIN SP | -4.8 |
| Colin Rea CHC SP | -4.7 |
| Walbert Urena LAA SP | -4.6 |
| Stephen Kolek KC SP | -4.1 |
| Corbin Burnes ARI SP | -4.0 |
| MacKenzie Gore TEX SP | -3.8 |
| Nick Martinez TB SP | -3.8 |
| Chris Bassitt BAL SP | -3.3 |
| Grayson Rodriguez LAA SP | -3.0 |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN SS | -3.0 |
| Andre Pallante STL SP | -2.9 |
| Grant Holmes ATL SP | -2.5 |
| Spencer Arrighetti HOU SP | -2.5 |
| Jeffrey Springs ATH SP | -2.3 |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX 2B | -2.3 |