What To Expect In Fantasy Baseball From Pitchers On New Teams: Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodríguez, Craig Kimbrel
Lou breaks down the fantasy baseball prospects of three big-name pitchers who have been on the move this MLB offseason.
This MLB offseason has seen a ton of player movement. There are still high-profile free agents available and when they sign it will change the fantasy baseball landscape but for now, let’s take a look at three big-name pitchers who have changed teams this offseason and how it impacts their fantasy baseball value.
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SP Chris Sale traded from Red Sox to Braves
The Red Sox are a last-place caliber team. Leaving that type of environment immediately gives a boost to any player. In this case, a move away from the hitter-friendly Fenway Park and one of the most competitive divisions in MLB suddenly makes Chris Sale interesting again. At one time, he was an ace, a top-of-the-line SP in fantasy baseball; however, he has been derailed by injuries over the past few seasons. He did make 20 starts in 2023, which is encouraging considering he had made just 11 starts in 2021 and 2022 combined, yet there is still plenty of risk around him. Since the trade to the Braves, his ADP has moved up over 30 spots, and he is now being taken in the top 150 picks. As long as he doesn’t get hurt between now and the beginning of the season, Sale’s ADP is going to continue to rise to the point where he could go inside the top 100. Although there is plenty of upside in his arm and he continues to post elite K/9 numbers, he is not worth picking inside of the top 130-140 picks, so don’t get sucked into the hype. If you’re drafting in January, Sale is an intriguing pick if you can get him around pick 150 or higher. The Braves signed an extension with Sale that will keep him in Atlanta through 2026, which should give you some confidence in the fact that they believe he is healthy and ready to be a big part of their rotation.
Diamondbacks sign SP Eduardo Rodríguez
E-Rod is coming off a big bounce-back season. His first season in Detroit in 2022 was disappointing, especially after leaving Boston for a pitcher-friendly environment and one of the worst divisions in MLB. His 2023 season, however, happened to be the best of his career, and he parlayed that into a nice payday with the D-Backs. Over the past month, E-Rod has an ADP in the 180s with a min pick of 130 and a max pick of 217. Clearly, with such a discrepancy in his min and max picks, the fantasy baseball community is torn on which E-Rod they will see in 2024. As good as he was in 2023, he is going to a much more competitive division and will face tougher matchups throughout the season. I do like him as an SP4/5 type in the 180s range of your drafts, but do not draft him expecting a repeat of his 2023 season, certainly don’t draft him in the top 150, and please don’t set the new minimum pick by taking him in the top 130.
Orioles sign closer Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel has over 400 career saves across 14 seasons with seven different teams. When the 2024 season begins, Kimbrel will begin pitching for his eighth team, and it’s worth noting that he will be closing for the AL East Champion Orioles. Although they may not win the division again this upcoming season, the Orioles should be a 90+ win team and will provide Kimbrel with plenty of save opportunities. Kimbrel does have big shoes to fill in Baltimore, as he will be a one-year replacement for Félix Bautista, who was arguably the best closer in baseball in 2023 before suffering an elbow injury that eventually led to Tommy John Surgery. Kimbrel has an ADP in the 130s right now and he has been picked as high as 63rd overall. He isn’t elite with his ratios, yet in terms of job security and racking up saves, Kimbrel is still one of the best options. With that said, his minimum pick of 63 overall is way too early, and I wouldn’t take him anywhere inside the top 100. At his current ADP, though, he is great value as your team's first or second closer. Kimbrel has over 20 saves in 12 of his 14 seasons and at least 20 saves in each of the past three seasons. There isn’t any upside to this pick, but there’s something to be said about safety and consistency, especially at one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball.
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