NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tiers, Start/Sit Analysis

Fantasy football in the playoffs is … weird, for lack of a better word. Even though this is technically a “start/sit” article, I imagine the vast majority of people playing fantasy in the playoffs (and reading this article) are playing some kind of DFS instead of a traditional fantasy format where you have to set a lineup. 

With that in mind, instead of designating individual players as “starts” and “sits,” I'll be breaking the Divisional Round wide receiver options into tiers based on how confident I would feel relying on them in any fantasy format. 

After we lost quite a few excellent fantasy options last week, there aren't actually that many WRs who inspire confidence left in the playoffs, so the top couple of tiers are going to be fairly empty this week. Picking the right options out of a sea of committee WRs and boom/bust plays will make or break the Divisional Round. 

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Tier 1: Target Monsters

• Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

This is pretty easy. These two NFC West WRs were the best fantasy receivers of the season, and now they're by far the best fantasy receivers left in the postseason.

Even if their matchups weren't good, Smith-Njigba and Nacua would deserve a tier of their own … but they are.

Tier 2: The Touchdown Machine

• Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams

Last week, Adams shared Tier 2 with a couple of legit WR1s in Nico Collins and A.J. Brown. But those players are gone (one injured and one eliminated), so Adams is left alone.

His profile is still weird for an elite fantasy WR, as he relies heavily on TDs. But I'll repeat the stat I used last week: Adams' 27 end zone targets in the end zone were nearly twice as many as the next closest player (18). That level of TD equity on the team with the highest total of the weekend earns him a tier to himself. 

Tier 3: Solid Options

• Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

• Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

• Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

• Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots

Here we have the remaining players who are clearly the top receivers for their respective teams. Of this group, Sutton is the closest to joining Adams in Tier 2. But Denver's WR1 averaged over three fewer half-PPR points than Adams during the season, and his matchup is much worse. So Sutton is the top option of a still very respectable tier.

The remaining plays in this group are all a bit riskier. Both Diggs and Shakir performed frequent route-rate-related disappearing acts during the season, and Jennings isn't 100% secure as San Francisco's top target. They are also each facing one of the league's top-three defenses.

But at the end of the day, I feel more comfortable with this trio than any of the names coming up in this list. With so few teams active, we can't afford to be picky. Injuries (George Kittle, Mack Hollins, Joshua Palmer, etc.) have also helped secure roles for these three, who are all — as implied by the tier name — solid options. 

Tier 4: Boom/Bust Plays 

• D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears

• Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

• Luther Burden, Chicago Bears

• Christian Kirk, Houston Texans

• Xavier Hutchinson, Houston Texans

• Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans

• Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

• Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots

I considered making a separate tier for the three Chicago WRs (Moore, Odunze, and Burden). I also considered moving just Moore up a tier, as he was clearly the Bears' WR1 last week, with a 15% target share and 83% route participation rate (Odunze was second in both at 13% and 70%). But the rookie is probably the most exciting WR on the roster, and last week was Odunze's first game back from injury. It wouldn't be surprising at all if any of them pops off … or any of them is a complete non-factor.

That's really the theme of this whole tier. We have another trio in Houston's WRs in a similar situation. Kirk had a massive game last week, but that was the veteran slot specialist's first truly productive outing of the season. Hutchinson was second on the team in routes last week and is perhaps the obvious candidate to step into the hole left by the aforementioned Collins, but he is a classic empty routes kind of player. Higgins parallels well with fellow rookie Burden — he has the best per-route stats of the group but the smallest projectable role.

Finally, we have Pearsall and Boutte. Pearsall is returning from a knee injury and is likely still not 100%, but he has had some genuinely excellent games this season where he looked like the 49ers' top option. And Boutte is a classic boom/bust option. He'll run plenty of routes, but he's not a big target-earner. If he hits on a deep ball — which is always possible with Drake Maye under center — you'll be happy to have played him. If not, you won't. 

Tier 5: Dart Throws

• Brandin Cooks, Buffalo Bills

• Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

• Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks

• Rashid Shaheed, Seattle Seahawks

• Pat Bryant, Denver Broncos

• Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos

• Demarcus Robinson, San Francisco 49ers

Like the previous tier, these players are all capable of big games, but also capable of complete zeroes. However, the range of outcomes is tilted much more toward the zero end of the scale for this group.

Cooks and Coleman have both been part-time players for most of the season, but Buffalo's rash of WR injuries makes them much more appealing. Along with Shakir, they are literally the only healthy receivers left on the Bills' active roster. 

Kupp and Shaheed are both capable of taking advantage of the 49ers' terrible defense, but it's been clear all season that the Seahawks' passing offense is all about JSN. 

Bryant and Franklin both had spurts this season as genuinely solid options. But it's anyone's guess who Sean Payton will choose to use as his WR2 on Saturday, and the other guy will be hard-pressed to come out with more than a couple catches. 

Robinson is coming off a big game, but that was his first outing all season with more than three receptions. I'm honestly closer to moving him down a tier than up. Especially in a tough matchup and with Pearsall set to return, the most likely outcome is that he returns straight back to fantasy irrelevance.

Tier 6: Desperation Options

• Jaylin Noel, Houston Texans

• Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

• Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco 49ers

• DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots

• Xavier Smith, Los Angeles Rams

If you truly have no other options, these are players who will at least be on the field a little bit … probably. We're talking route participation rates at or below 50% here, so pick from this group at your own risk.