Fantasy Football Week 17 Tight End Start/Sit: Harold Fannin, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, and More
Three tight ends to start and three to sit in Week 17 of the NFL season.
It's fantasy championship week! This week is a bit odd for such an “important” event, with games spread over four days (three of them with multiple games), but we can't argue about having more football to watch; the season is almost over, after all.
For those still alive for the ultimate prize, that means every decision is of utmost importance. You might already have your weekly starters figured out if you have been that successful, but weird things happen in a single-elimination tournament, so a team without a complete roster could easily make the final game.
Let's look at three tight ends to start and three to sit in Week 17 of the NFL season. There won't be any obvious names below, like Trey McBride. Instead, we have six guys who are good fantasy starters some weeks but better left on the bench other times. Most stats are from NFL.com.
Use FantasySP's weekly projections to find the players expected to perform best each week and help make your toughest lineup decisions!
Start
Harold Fannin, Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
After running back Quinshon Judkins suffered a major injury last week, Fannin is now the remaining exciting skill player in the lineup. A Browns team that is seriously short on talent will be able to add at essentially any position to improve the team this offseason, but tight end might be the spot they feel is most secure (though David Njoku is a free agent).
Fannin leads Cleveland in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, and no one is particularly close in catches or yards. His 4.7 receptions and 46.7 yards per game with five scores have him inside the top seven fantasy tight ends in both standard and PPR.
Pittsburgh offers a positive matchup. They are in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but the Steelers have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The position is averaging 6.5 catches and 67.7 yards per game with 10 touchdowns against Pittsburgh.
Fannin is a great option this week. He is one of the last men standing for Cleveland and will surely see plenty of volume, and the Steelers aren't equipped to stop him. When these teams played in October, Fannin caught seven of 10 targets for 81 yards, and something similar wouldn't be surprising.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
Like Fannin, Johnson is another player who stands out at least partly due to a lack of skill players around him. Chris Olave is the team's top receiver, but they were short at WR even before trading Rashid Shaheed to Seattle, and New Orleans is down multiple players at running back, though the team (surprisingly) hasn't put Alvin Kamara on IR yet.
Taysom Hill is listed at tight end on the depth chart, but he runs the ball more than he catches it, and his ability to throw adds even more to his role; he's not a threat to Johnson as a standard tight end. It's no surprise that Johnson is second on the team behind Olave in essentially every receiving category.
Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt. They are in the middle in fantasy points given up to tight ends, but that works out to be less than 1.5 points per week outside the top 10, and volume plays as much of a role in their fantasy standing as anything.
The Titans are one of the worst teams in football, and the defense is a major part of the problem. Even a below-average New Orleans offense can find some success, and with Johnson an important part of the attack, he is likely to have at least a decent game here.
Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Waller's biggest impediment to positive fantasy work is the presence of seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers under center. Ewers accumulated 260 passing yards last week, but that came as the team was being blown out, and Waller had just three catches for 40 yards.
That was in a matchup against Cincinnati, who might have the worst defense in the league and definitely has the worst tight end defense according to fantasy numbers. This week against the Bucs is almost as good, as Tampa has allowed the fifth-most yards per pass attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
With Tua Tagovailoa under center, Waller would have been close to a must-start player both last week and this week. The floor lowers significantly with Ewers in the lineup, even with the best matchups, so the Miami tight end is a risky fantasy player here.
If you're still in the hunt for the fantasy trophy, you can probably find a more trustworthy option for your lineup. For those in deep leagues or in the consolation bracket, though, Waller has low-to-mid-level streaming value, just with a lower floor and ceiling than you might like.
Sit
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
Philadelphia's top two receivers lead the team by far in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Goedert is the clear third option, though, and only Saquon Barkley comes close to him in any receiving category outside of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Most importantly for fantasy purposes, Goedert has 10 touchdowns, three more than anyone else on the team. That helps him to a TE2 standing in standard scoring, though he's down at TE7 in PPR, still among the starters.
The matchup is the main problem here: Buffalo has given up the eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. TE groups are averaging fewer than three receptions and 35 yards per game against the Bills with just three touchdowns on the season.
On top of the matchup, touchdowns are random, and even a guy who has 10 scores might not get into the end zone again. He had never topped five TDs previously, and Goedert's career rate before this season was one touchdown every 14.5 receptions; this year, it's one every 5.7.
Goedert has a negative outlook this week. He could find a little volume simply because he doesn't have much competition for targets, but Goedert is unlikely to put up big numbers.
Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
On the opposite sideline from Goedert are a pair of players who are both questionable for this game with knee injuries. Even if Kincaid and/or Knox are on the field, there is risk due to the lingering injuries.
The matchup is also brutal here, as Philadelphia has given up the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed 3.9 receptions and 30.7 yards per game to TEs with three touchdowns, battling with Buffalo for the best tight end defense.
Neither Kincaid nor Knox has been a great fantasy player. Kincaid is better, but he has missed four games, so the two have very similar stats (though Kincaid's five receiving touchdowns lead the team). Both guys are outside the top 15 fantasy tight ends, though Kincaid's standing is also a product of his missed time.
With the match up heavily against them and both players dealing with injury, I don't want to count on either Kincaid or Knox this week. They have as negative of a fantasy outlook as any TE who regularly gets on the field.
Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
I've been intrigued by Parkinson in my weekly FAAB article because he has been scoring a touchdown seemingly every week. Between Weeks 10-15, Parkinson averaged 3.7 receptions, 38.3 yards, and one touchdown per game, ranking as TE4 in both standard and PPR in that stretch.
Touchdowns are fleeting, though, and Parkinson wasn't putting up the type of numbers that lead to great fantasy work without being carried by TDs. Sure enough, Parkinson failed to score last week against the Seahawks (who are tough against the pass but struggle against tight ends), and he ended up with just two catches for 21 yards.
The matchup is rough in this one, as the Falcons are in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed but have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Much like the past two teams we talked about, Atlanta has been holding TE groups to low numbers, including 3.9 receptions and 41.1 yards per game with just two touchdowns.
Parkinson also shares snaps with two other tight ends (and they are all on the field together plenty), so there is a low floor when considering the matchup. You can find a better option than Parkinson, including the “Sit” guys we already talked about.
