Fantasy Football Week 16 Running Back Start/Sit: Michael Carter, Omarion Hampton and More

It's fantasy football semifinal time! Before we get into the top running backs to start and sit in Week 16, let's start with a quick look back at my recommendations for Week 15.

In a cruel twist of fate, not one of my “Start” picks from last week actually finished the week healthy. Chris Rodriguez (groin) was ruled out before the game even began, while Devin Neal (hamstring) and Woody Marks (ankle) both exited their respective games in the first half. 

Given that this means the results were terrible, I still feel good about my process. Both Neal and Marks were on track for big games before their early exits, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt was the RB13 in Rodriguez's absence (that last one is less convincing, as JCM would have stolen some of the work from Rodriguez if both were healthy). 

Thankfully, everyone remained healthy from the sit section. David Montgomery scored a TD but still finished with just 9.2 half-PPR points (behind both Neal and Marks in less than a half of action). Omarion Hampton (7) and Breece Hall (4.7) were both also underwhelming. Put it all together, and I think those injuries kept me from an absolutely excellent week.

Hopefully we can keep rolling as we head into the all-important Week 16 — let's get started.

For more help with your toughest Week 16 start/sit decisions, check out FantasySP's NFL Start/Sit tool!

Running Backs to Start Week 16

RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos

This week, Harvey faces the Jaguars. So far this season, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest points per game to opposing backs. I can understand managers being hesitant to start the rookie with that little red “2nd” next to his name. But he is currently being started in just 54% of ESPN leagues, and that is simply far too few.

Harvey is coming off a week of absolutely elite usage. Over the first three weeks with J.K. Dobbins sidelined, he averaged a 58% snap share, a 64% RB rush share, and a 35% route participation rate. In Week 15, those numbers were 68%, 86% (!!), and 42%. Harvey had more carries (19) than Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin had snaps (combined for 15).

With that usage in an efficient offense, Harvey is essentially a must-start option, regardless of matchup. And it's not like this matchup is truly dreadful, as Denver still has a healthy 26-point team total. Look past that little red number and fire up the rookie with confidence in your fantasy playoff matchups. 

Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings

I know I just spent a whole blurb talking about how matchups aren't always the most important thing, but this pick is all about the matchup. Jones faces the Giants this week, who allow the second-most points per game to opposing backs. New York's defense is also allowing 5.9 yards per attempt to RBs, over half a yard more than the next-softest team. 

For his part, Jones' usage has trended slightly in the wrong direction recently. For a couple of weeks following his return from injury (the first one), the veteran was a legit workhorse whenever he was healthy. Now, Jordan Mason is getting involved again on the ground, leaving Jones with just over a 50% share of the backfield carries. 

Thankfully, Jones isn't just involved on the ground, with a solid 13% target share over the last five weeks. He's not quite a must-start like Harvey, but the former Packer is a solid RB2 this week. 

Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals

From must-start borderline RB1 to solid RB2, we now fall one step further to “borderline RB2.” But don't let that fool you — Carter is a very solid option for fantasy mangers without obvious answers at RB this week.

After Bam Knight went down with an ankle injury last week (he has since been placed on season-ending IR), Carter was a legit bell-cow for the Cardinals. He played 81% of Arizona's offensive snaps, handled 14 of 17 backfield carries, and even saw four targets (a 10% share) on a 63% route participation rate.

Heading into this week, there's a chance Carter's workload regresses slightly. Last week was Emari Demercado's first week back from injury, and there is also a trend of teams spreading things out more once they have a week to plan around their lead back (Knight, in this case) going down.

But Carter can afford to lose some work and still have excellent usage. And, although Arizona has been the pass-happiest team in the league thanks to massively negative game scripts, his matchup this week is decent: the Cardinals are just three-point underdogs at home against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. 

If you happened to scoop up Carter this week despite already being loaded at RB, you don't have to start him. But there's probably a spot for him in most lineups, especially in deeper leagues. 

Running Backs to Sit Week 16

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders

I try to have at least one relatively bold “Sit” selection each week, fading a player started in the vast majority of leagues. This week, that player is Jeanty, who is started in over 85% of leagues … and I'm scared. If we ignore Dylan Laube's two carries in the stinkiest of garbage time last week, the superstar rookie has had a literal 100% RB rush share over his last two outings. That's genuinely unheard of.

Even if we go back one week further to include every game since Chip Kelly was fired and replaced by Greg Olson (no, not that one), Jeanty's usage is eye-popping: a 97% rush share and 20% target share. But the results aren't quite as impressive, as Jeanty has just 6.7 half-PPR points per game.

The problem is that the Raiders' offense is epically incompetent. Jeanty averages a measly 0.51 yards before contact (69th out of 75 RBs with at least 25 carries). The team as a whole has just 16 snaps inside their opponents' five-yard line all season. They have an embarrassingly low 12.75-point team total against the Texans' elite defense this weekend.

Because of his pristine workload (and explosive talent), Jeanty isn't a must-bench. But he's not the must-start we hoped he would be coming into the season, and I'd rather have any of the three players listed above.

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

Like his fellow first-round rookie Jeanty, Hampton is not a must-bench. But, unlike Jeanty, Hampton's role really hasn't been that good since his return from injury. Hampton did lead the Chargers in carries last week, but he was only three ahead of Kimani Vidal (15 to 12). Meanwhile, Vidal easily led in both snap share (63% to 37%) and route rate (55% to 21%); they both saw just one target.

This usage isn't great, and the matchup isn't as great as it seems, either. For the season, the Cowboys rank as the seventh-best matchup for RBs, giving up 21.8 half-PPR points per game. But since Quinnen Williams arrived at the trade deadline, that number has fallen to just 18.1. They are the 12th-toughest matchup for opposing backs in that timeframe. And even that would be significantly lower if it weren't for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for four TDs on Thanksgiving. 

There's a chance that Hampton's role continues to expand as he gets back up to full speed in LA's offense. He does also have the team's only goal-line carry since his return, a good sign in a game where the Chargers have a decent 24-point total. But his role just isn't ideal, and this matchup is misleading. Think twice before trusting him with everyone on the line in the fantasy playoffs.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

For the first time all season, Warren saw fewer carries than Kenneth Gainwell last week. To be fair, Warren was dealing with an illness heading into their Monday Night Football contest, which may have been a factor in his reduced role. But, even prior to Week 15, Warren's role hasn't been great recently.

Since Week 11, Warren has averaged a 53% RB rush share in the Steelers' offense. Perhaps more importantly, he has seen just 11 targets to Gainwell's 29. With elite receiving usage on his side, Gainwell is genuinely the best fantasy option in the Steelers' backfield at this point.  

That's especially true this week, as the Steelers are likely to be playing from behind against the Lions. Detroit's defense is the third-toughest fantasy matchup for RBs, and the Lions are also seven-point favorites. Put it all together, and Warren is just a risky flex option this week, whom I would avoid if you have other options.