Week 15 Fantasy Football Usage Report: Kenneth Gainwell, Emeka Egbuka and More

Before we head into Week 16 and the fantasy football semifinals, let's take one last look back at Week 15, identifying players seeing either positive or negative trends in their usage.

I won't be featuring Kyle Pitts Sr. coming off his 40-point explosion, though … because I got him last week. Hopefully, we can have success like that again this week. Let's get started!  

Check out week 15 fantasy leaders on FantasySP!

Positive Usage Players

WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

Since Dan Campbell took over calling plays for the Lions in Week 10, Williams has had only one bad week. That week was a literal zero, which has likely scared managers off starting him, but it is clear now that he is a must-start.

With Campbell calling plays (Sam LaPorta being sidelined for the same period is also probably relevant), Jamo has averaged 16.5 half-PPR points per game. He has a 20% target share, a 36% air yards share, and a 90% route participation rate. Those are genuinely elite numbers, and he should be treated as an elite fantasy WR to finish out the season. 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Over the last five weeks, Gainwell has averaged 15.2 half-PPR points per game. That's with Jaylen Warren active every week, although he did leave early in Gainwell's biggest game of this span.

The reason Gainwell can produce even with Warren active is that rushing volume isn't key to his fantasy value. He has only led the Steelers' backfield in carries once in this span, averaging just a 36% RB rush share. Instead, Gainwell is making his money through the air, with a 20% target share for 5.8 targets per game. 

The only other running backs seeing receiving usage on this level are Christian McCaffrey and De'Von Achane (maybe also Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, if we're being generous). And while Gainwell's overall role isn't as favorable as those true workhorses, he is proving the axiom that receiving usage is key to running back fantasy success.

Even heading into matchups with two theoretically tough run defenses in the Lions and Browns, Gainwell is firmly on the fantasy radar with this receiving workload. 

RB Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals

Bam Knight suffered an ankle injury in the Cardinals' Week 15 loss to the Texans — he has now been placed on IR, and his season is over. In his absence, Carter served as a bell cow for the Cardinals. He saw 14 carries and four targets on a 79% snap share and a 63% route participation rate. Corey Kiner and Emari Demercado, the team's other two active backs, combined for just 12 snaps, seven routes, three carries, and three targets.

Going forward, I wouldn't be shocked if Carter's role regresses at least a little. This was Demercado's first game back, so he might be more involved, especially in the passing game, with another week to heal (and with the team planning around not having Knight). But it's clear that Carter is going to handle the majority of the work for the Cardinals. 

On paper, Arizona's RB1 job is one of the least valuable in the league. They rank dead last with an absurdly low 30% rush rate. But they do have favorable matchups to finish the season, facing the Falcons this week and the Bengals next week.

Atlanta is bad enough that the Cardinals might actually keep things close, while the Bengals lead the league in RB points allowed. If he keeps the usage we saw on Sunday in those matchups, Carter could be a legit league-winner for RB-needy teams.  

Negative Usage Players

WR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots

I've featured Diggs as a negative usage player multiple times this season, including as recently as three weeks ago. But things have never looked quite so grim for the veteran receiver as they do right now.

Over the last three weeks (since Kayshon Boutte's return), Diggs has averaged 4.1 half-PPR points per game. And that's not even much of an underperformance on his usage: a 13% target share and 5% air yards share on a 57% route participation rate. All of those numbers are bad, and the last two are genuinely unusable.

I listed Diggs as a drop candidate this week. Even if you aren't ready to pull that trigger, make sure to get him out of your lineup for the fantasy semifinals. 

WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Speaking of theoretically talented receivers who posted very low route participation rates in Week 15, we have Egbuka. With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan returning, the rookie ran a route on just 55% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks, by far his lowest number of the season.

On the bright side, Egbuka did still see seven targets for a 21% target share. But he caught just four for 64 scoreless yards. This continues a trend of Egbuka underperforming his usage: Between Week 8 and Week 14, he averaged just 7.6 half-PPR points despite a 31% target share. 

Now that he's combined questionable efficiency with questionable underlying metrics, Egbuka is a very risky fantasy option. There's even a chance he trends further downward as Evans (who only posted a 65% route rate last week) gets more involved. Don't drop him yet, but I wouldn't start him, either. 

Every Indianapolis Pass-Catcher

We got our first taste of the Indianapolis offense under Philip Rivers on Sunday. While things weren't as bad as they might have been, they certainly weren't good. The Colts managed just 16 points and 215 offensive yards, both their lowest marks of the year.

Things were particularly bad in terms of passing production. In his 12 full games, Daniel Jones averaged 253 yards on 31 attempts and 21 completions per game. Rivers managed just 120 yards on 27 attempts and 18 completions, averaging nearly half as many yards per attempt. 

The Colts' leading receiver was backup running back Ameer Abdullah, with five catches for 32 yards. Nine of Rivers' 26 targeted passes (35%) were intended for either Abdullah or Jonathan Taylor, compared to just a 13% RB target share for the Colts over the first 14 weeks of the season. Josh Downs led WRs and TEs with 8.8 half-PPR points thanks to a TD, but no primary pass catcher eclipsed three receptions or 26 yards.

To be fair, Rivers was less than a week removed from being retired, and they did face an elite Seattle defense. I wouldn't be surprised if things improve going forward. But, even if we factor in some solid improvement, the numbers just don't add up for Indianapolis' pass catchers to be viable options with the 44-year-old under center.

I wouldn't want to start Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, or even Tyler Warren over the next two weeks with fantasy seasons on the line.