Week 16 Fantasy Football Drop Candidates: Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid and More

We are officially headed into Week 16 and the fantasy football semifinals. At this stage, the standards for what makes a player “droppable” are lower than ever.

If a player isn't going to make your lineup in the next two weeks, they aren't worth keeping. This could include anyone from a rookie who has run out of time to a breakout to one of your usual starters who just happens to have bad matchups in Weeks 16 and 17. With this in mind, the following players are a (by no means exhaustive) list of players to move on from. 

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Deep League Drop Candidates

RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56.5% Rostered)

White remained solidly involved in the Buccaneers' offense for the first couple of weeks after Bucky Irving's return from injury. Unfortunately, that changed in Week 15. Although he still posted a 41% snap share and led the backfield with a 43% route participation rate, the veteran recorded just one carry and one target. Meanwhile, Irving finished with 16 carries and four targets, and even Sean Tucker saw four carries on his seven snaps.

Obviously, White isn't at all startable with this usage. What makes him droppable even in deeper formats is that, even if Irving were to go down again, his usage wouldn't be elite. Tucker had forced this backfield into a legit committee prior to Irving's return. With no current standalone value and less-than-ideal handcuff upside, White isn't worth a roster spot.  

WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (83.6% Rostered)

It's been a second season in the NFL for Worthy. The former first-round pick dislocated his shoulder on literally the third snap of the season. He had a few promising weeks following his return from that injury, but then Rashee Rice returned from suspension and took over as the Chiefs' WR1. 

Since Rice's Week 7 return, Worthy has averaged just 6.4 half-PPR points per game on an uninspiring 15% target share. Despite theoretically being a big-play threat as the fastest man in NFL history (at least according to 40-yard dash time), he has zero finishes as a top-30 WR in that time frame. 

Now, Worthy's situation goes from bad to worse as Patrick Mahomes is done for the year with a torn ACL. Mahomes hasn't been playing at a truly elite level this season, but I have to assume that the move to Gardner Minshew will still be a downgrade. 

It also doesn't help that the Chiefs face the Broncos' elite defense in Week 17. If Worthy isn't in your lineup for this week, is there any realistic way that he is in it next week, given that matchup? The answer is probably no, which means he's a safe player to cut. 

Average League Drop Candidates

WR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots (92.4% Rostered)

I listed Diggs as a deep-league drop last week, but another dud has him trending in the wrong direction. Since Kayshon Boutte's return in Week 12, Diggs has posted route participation rates of 51%, 56%, and 59%. 

At past times in this season, I have had to argue that Diggs' low route rates were a sign of incoming regression, even as he kept scoring. Right now, he's making my argument for me, with finishes of 3, 4.1, and 4.1 half-PPR points over the last three weeks. Even in Week 15's revenge matchup against the Bills — whom he torched for 10/146 earlier this year — he saw just three targets, catching all three for 26 yards.

Over the next two weeks, the Patriots do have totally fine matchups with the Ravens and the Jets. Given that he has been efficient on a per-route basis this season, I wouldn't be surprised if Diggs has at least one usable game in those two weeks. 

But usable games are only helpful if you actually use them, and I certainly wouldn't recommend ever trusting Diggs in the fantasy playoffs while his usage is this bad. If you can't trust him in your lineup (which you shouldn't), let him go. 

WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (86.6% Rostered)

Pittman has the same problem as Diggs — you can't trust him in starting lineups — but he takes a different route to get there. His usage is still excellent, including a 19% target share, 31% air yards share, and 93% route participation rate on Sunday. 

But we can see the problem when we turn those shares into real numbers — Pittman had just 39 air yards on Sunday. He caught three of his five targets, but finished with just 26 yards … and that still led the team. With 44-year-old Philip Rivers under center, the Colts as a team recorded a measly 120 receiving yards.

After having been a slightly pass-happy team for most of the season, Indianapolis had a pass rate a whopping 11.4% below expected in their first week with Rivers at the helm. Even when he did throw the ball, the literal grandfather averaged a miserable 3.52 adjusted yards per attempt. Daniel Jones was at an excellent 8.13 prior to his tragic injury. 

There just isn't going to be volume or efficiency in this passing offense with Rivers under center, and that makes Pittman (not to mention Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and maybe even Tyler Warren) a safe drop. 

Shallow League Drop Candidates

TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (79% Rostered)

Honestly, Kincaid is very comparable to his division rival Diggs. He also plays on an excellent offense with an MVP candidate quarterback. And he also posts elite per-route numbers … but in a very limited role. Kincaid has posted route participation rates of exactly 42% in each of the last two weeks, either trailing or tying fellow TE Dawson Knox both times. 

However, standards at the tight end position are lower. Despite having been in a part-time role all season, Kincaid still ranks as the TE8 in points per game, thanks in large part to his five TDs on 36 catches. This is why Kincaid is only a drop in shallow leagues, not all formats.

But in shallow leagues, I simply don't think Kincaid is ever going to be your best option at the TE position in either of the next two weeks. This week, he is coming off a 4.9-point dud and seeing the aforementioned terrible usage. In Week 17, the Bills face the Eagles, who rank as the third-toughest opponents for tight ends. Put it all together, and he's a drop. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (67.5% Rostered)

Believe it or not, Stevenson actually led the Patriots' backfield with a 67% snap share on Sunday. He also posted a solid 59% route participation rate, to go with three targets and six carries. Even his actual fantasy finish of 7.3 half-PPR points wasn't too bad, and that was with some underperformance on the efficiency side.

But in shallow formats, 7.3 points (or even his expected score of 9.2 points) isn't going to cut it. Nor is a 30% RB rush share, which is what Stevenson finished with, thanks to rookie TreVeyon Henderson seeing 14 carries. In Week 14, it seemed as though Stevenson might be the 1B or even the 1A in this backfield. That's clearly not the case at this point, so he's a safe drop.