Which Top-Five Prospects Could Make a Big Difference this Fantasy Baseball Season? | Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, Paul Skenes, Junior Caminero and Evan Carter

Discussing which top-five prospects could make the biggest fantasy baseball impacts this coming season.

The list of top 100 MLB prospects was recently released, which got me thinking about which prospects could be fantasy stars for the upcoming season. 

Let’s dive into the list and determine which members of the top five are capable of making the biggest impacts this season.

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Jackson Holliday Fantasy Outlook

Baltimore Orioles’ Jackson Holliday is the top prospect in the game coming into the season. Despite being only 20 years old, his ETA is this season.

Holliday was the first overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. He’s been dominant in the first two years of minor league play, hitting for a .320 average and getting on base at a ridiculous .449 clip. He’s hit 13 home runs and has four less walks (126) than strikeouts (130). 

His bat is his best tool, but he’s also got above-average marks in the power, run, arm and field tools. Holliday is projected to play shortstop, but could also move to second base (it definitely is a positive that he can play either spot, because that moves his call-up time up).

The youngster is projected to make the team out of spring training, despite only playing 18 games at Triple-A. Even if he doesn’t make the team right away, I’d be shocked if he were in the minors for longer than a month.

Baltimore’s lineup is talented, but it looks to also be flexible enough to accommodate Holliday when he’s ready. With a high on-base percentage, you’d ideally want him hitting first, but in an effort to not overload him, I expect him to hit in the bottom half of the order. That would mean he does most of his damage as a fantasy player with his average and OBP, but he should also have a decent amount of RBI chances.

He’s getting some love at the end of drafts in both rankings, mocks and actual fantasy drafts, and could climb even higher if he’s named to the roster before opening day.

Jackson Chourio Fantasy Outlook

Milwaukee Brewers’ Jackson Chourio is the No. 2 prospect in the game. He’s also 20 years old and is expected to make his MLB debut this season.

Chourio was an international free agent signing of the Brewers in 2021. He’s been incredible in the three seasons since, combining for a .286 average and .347 on-base percentage. Chourio has 63 doubles, nine triples and 47 home runs across 272 games played. His walk numbers aren’t as good as Holliday’s but he also limits strikeouts pretty well (250 total over 1,090 at-bats).

His best projected tool is his speed, while his power also has a high grade. He’s an outfielder, and might be destined for right because of his power numbers and average arm.

Chourio is also projected by many to make the big league team right out of spring training. He’s only played six games at the Triple-A level.

Milwaukee has some talent in the outfield, with Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer serving as the top options as of now. If Chourio excels in spring training, he could bump Wiemer to a platoon role with Frelick or Mitchell.

He’d likely hit near the bottom of the lineup, though much like the case for Holliday, Milwaukee needs some production near the top of the lineup, and if his power translates to the MLB, Chourio could be batting between the 3-5 spots most of the season. 

Chourio is getting some love in the later portion of drafts/rankings right now, and it could rise as the regular season nears. He could be the top drafted guy of the five we’re discussing today.

Paul Skenes Fantasy Outlook

Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes is the top-ranked pitcher, coming in No. 3 overall. He was the first pick of the 2023 MLB Draft is projected to make the big leagues at some point this season. Skenes is 21 years old and pitched across three levels (as high as Double-A) last season.

Skenes only got 6 2/3 minor league innings last year as the team looked to protect him after a long and busy college season. He struck out 10 batters while walking just two. He allowed five hits and four earned runs.

His fastball is graded as high as it can be (80), and his slider (70) isn’t too bad either. His third pitch is a changeup, and that’s even graded above average.

It’s crazy to think he could make the big league team out of camp after not pitching many minor league innings, but there’s a chance he can. I think it’s more likely they get him some work in spring training and then send him to Triple-A for a month or two before calling him up for the first time.

So to answer the question of whether or not he could make an impact this season, I’d say it’s probably likely, but it also probably won’t be a full season of action. Teams generally try to protect their pitching prospects, and I’m sure the Pirates have a number of innings in mind for Skenes. He’s a guy to draft in dynasty leagues and maybe late in deeper leagues. In standard leagues, keep an eye on him as the season begins so you can beat your league members to the waiver wire if he gets the call.

Junior Caminero Fantasy Outlook

Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero is the No. 4 overall prospect in the game. He’s also just 20 years old and is expected to make his debut this season. Caminero, a 2019 international signing by Cleveland, played in seven MLB games a season ago.

In his short call up, Caminero delivered eight hits across 34 at-bats, including one double and home run. He drove in seven and scored four runs, while striking out eight times and walking twice.

In the minors, Caminero had a .316 average and .383 on-base percentage across 845 at-bats and 222 games. He clubbed 33 doubles, eight triples and 51 homers along the way. He doesn’t walk a ton, but he does a good job of limiting his strikeouts.

His hitting tools are his great ones, while he projects to be a pretty average runner and fielder. He’s expected to be the long-term third baseman, but also played shortstop and second base for the Rays last season. That should help him as he looks to stick in the MLB.

While he already made his debut, it’s being projected that he begins the season in Triple-A. He could play his way on to the opening day roster with a strong spring training.

Brandon Lowe (2B), Isaac Paredes (3B) and Jose Caballero (SS) are expected to be the opening day starters. If any of those three struggle early on and Caminero is thriving in Triple-A, he could return to the bigs in short order.

Caminero probably slots in behind Chourio and Holliday in terms of his fantasy outlook for this coming season. That could change if he makes the team right away, but he looks the least likely of the three hitters to start the year in the bigs.

Evan Carter Fantasy Outlook

Texas Rangers’ Evan Carter, ranked No. 5, is easily the most pro-ready prospect in the top five. The outfielder played 23 games in the MLB a season ago after being drafted in the second round of the 2020 draft.

In his time in the major leagues, Carter hit for a .306 average and got on base at a .413 clip. He had 10 extra-base hits, 12 RBIs, three stolen bases and 15 runs scored. Carter struck out 24 times and walked 12 times.

His hit and run tools are what he’s known for, and he’s a pretty good fielder too. His power and arm grades are average.

Carter is expected to hit in the heart of the Rangers’ lineup to begin the season. If that turns out to be true, he’ll have a big leg up on being the top fantasy player of the top-five prospects. 

I’ve seen Carter going as early as the 50s in mocks/rankings, while other times he’s drafted after pick 100. If he can continue at similar numbers to his first MLB season, he’ll be a steal for any of those spots.

Final Thoughts

I set out to determine the best fantasy assets of the top-five prospects, so let’s run through my rankings.

I like Carter to make the biggest impact, and he’s the safest option after his experience a season ago. Chourio and Holliday are both really close in my book, but I like Chourio’s odds just a bit more, as Milwaukee’s lineup has a little more flexibility to put Chourio in spots to put up bigger fantasy numbers.

Caminero isn’t far behind those two, and really has the leg up on them with some MLB experience on his side, but with the least likely chance to begin the season in the bigs, I think Chourio and Holliday both outperform him.

Skenes takes the final spot, which seems unfair, but it is what it is. I think Skenes will be in the MLB before the All-Star break, which will give him plenty of time to make a fantasy impact.

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