Week 15 Fantasy Football Stars Who Will Struggle: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Jacobs, and More

Last week's attempt to find weekly fantasy starters who would fail to live up to expectations was decent, with a 50% hit rate:

• Patrick Mahomes struggled hard against the Texans, throwing for 160 yards on just 4.8 per attempt with no touchdowns and three interceptions.
• Bijan Robinson had 86 yards on 20 carries and added two receptions for eight yards. That's OK, but a lost fumble brought him well below double-digit fantasy points in all formats.
• A.J. Brown turned six catches into 100 yards, a good day as the Eagles turned it over five times and lost in overtime.
• Brock Bowers had a modest game with just four catches for 46 yards, but he also scored a touchdown to make for a nice fantasy day.

That's not bad; 50/50 is sometimes the best we can hope for when talking about the best players in fantasy. Let's do it again and identify one weekly fantasy starters at each offensive position who will struggle to excel. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's defensive rankings to find the players and teams with the toughest matchups each week.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I don't generally like repeating players if I can help it, but this is just the perfect pick this week (and there's not another guy who really fits here). Even after his putrid game on Sunday, Mahomes is still fantasy QB2, and he will have much better performances.

That might not start this week, though, as the Chargers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. No team has thrown for 300 yards against LA, and they were held under 200 yards in eight of 13 games.

When these teams played in Week 1, Mahomes threw for 258 yards, but it took him 39 attempts to get there (6.6 yards per attempt). He threw one touchdown with no interceptions, and Mahomes really made an impact with his legs, running for 57 yards and a TD.

A similar game, with volume but not much efficiency, is likely here. If he didn't have the rushing production, Mahomes would have had around 14 fantasy points; running the ball turned him into QB6 that week. While he has found success running, Mahomes probably won't reach those numbers again, and with a tough matchup, he is at risk of a quiet statistical game.

It's the fantasy playoffs, and some owners won't bench the guys who got them here. Beware that Mahomes could put up a modest fantasy day, though.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Green Bay has 376 rush attempts and 389 pass attempts (including scrambles, kneel-downs, etc.); in a passing league, that makes the Packers a run-first team. They have been below-average running the ball (eighth-fewest yards per rush attempt) and above-average when throwing the ball (seventh-most yards per pass attempt), so maybe they are doing it backward.

Their efficiency would drop if they started throwing more, but Jordan Love has been very good and has this team in position to win the division. Jacobs has been a workhorse with nearly 250 touches in 12 games, one of which he exited early. He is averaging just 4.0 yards per attempt, a slightly below-average number, but he has over 1,000 total yards and 12 touchdowns, making him a strong fantasy player.

As usual, the matchup is the issue here, as the Broncos have given up the fewest yards per rush attempt and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Jonathan Taylor is the only RB to reach 100 yards on the ground against Denver, and they only gave up 100 yards total to running backs in one other game. The Broncos also haven't given up much receiving work to backs, just 2.5 catches and 25 yards per game with three touchdowns.

Jacobs will touch the ball and probably build some volume, but this is unlikely to be a big game for him or anyone else in Green Bay's offense. Jacobs is a guy almost no one would consider benching, but if you have a strong set of RBs, it worth at least looking at your options.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks

You might say that Pittman doesn't fit the criteria of a “fantasy star” or even weekly starter, but he ranks among the top 15 fantasy WRs in both standard and PPR, and given his success in the past, it's easy to think that Pittman just needed a functional quarterback throwing him the ball.

Well, we might be back to the state of non-functional play under center, as Daniel Jones went down with a torn Achilles last week, and the Colts are scrambling to decide who will start against Seattle. No matter what Pittman (or any Indianapolis pass catcher) has done up to this point, the fantasy floor is in the basement.

The matchup is also super tough, as the Seahawks have given up the fewest yards per pass attempt and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Seattle's defense is driving their winning ways as much as an efficient offense, and a questionable passing game is likely to struggle here.

Whether it's Riley Leonard, Brett Rypien, or even Philip Rivers, whoever is under center for the Colts will be facing an uphill battle. That will extend to the wide receivers, though tight ends have done very well against Seattle. Pittman is likely to have a quiet day.

Tight End

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans

We could have gone with Bowers again, as the Vegas star faces Philadelphia, but let's switch it up and focus on McBride, who has a brutal matchup of his own. Houston is allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Only two TEs have reached 50 yards against the Texans, and they were middling guys in Brenton Strange and Chig Okonkwo. Houston otherwise held down players like Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Tyler Warren, and Travis Kelce, allowing an average of four catches and 38 yards with just four touchdowns.

McBride is a superstar at his position, far outpacing everyone else in fantasy points. Bowers and Tucker Kraft are close from a points-per-game perspective, but no one is close to being as consistently great and available as the Arizona tight end.

I'm not suggesting you bench him in the playoffs; it's a ludicrous thought, really. Beware that this has the makings of a low ceiling, though, and McBride might leave you wanting more if he doesn't get into the end zone.