Finding the Top Week 12 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Emanuel Wilson, Alec Pierce and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

For the first time in a few weeks, we have an absolute no-brainer must-add with a massive EWI to reflect it. If you want Emanuel Wilson on your roster, you're going to have to pay up. But there are also some other very enticing options behind him on this list, so let's break them all down.

Check out fantasy football waiver wire targets all season on FantasySP. 

RB Emanuel Wilson, Green Bay Packers (74% EWI)

This is a massive EWI for Wilson, and it's well deserved. As long as Josh Jacobs is sidelined by a knee injury, Wilson should be the Packers' workhorse and a borderline fantasy RB2, at least.

The only real reason to proceed with caution here is that Jacobs' injury is reportedly minor, and he might even play in Week 12. But if I had to guess, the former All-Pro misses at least one week, so Wilson is a no-brainer target if you need immediate RB help.  

WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts (24% EWI)

Frankly, Pierce should have been rostered in every league two weeks ago. Among WRs with at least five games played, he leads the entire NFL in air yards per game. He also ranks ninth in straight-up receiving yards per game.

The only reason he isn't already thought of as a clear fantasy starter is that he has just one TD this season, but there's no reason to think that he won't regress positively on that front. Unless you're set at WR and hurting at another position, Pierce should probably be your top waiver priority this week if he's available.

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (24% EWI)

Watson's Week 11 was very encouraging. Not only did he make two impressive TD catches for a solid fantasy finish, but he led a healthy Packers WR room (minus Jayden Reed) with a 79% route participation rate.

If he can remain an every-down player going forward, Watson has a legit shot to emerge as a reliable fantasy option. That makes him a decent add this week.

WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals (24% EWI)

I honestly expected Wilson's EWI to be higher. After all, his 185 receiving yards on Sunday were the most of any player all season. But fantasy managers are clearly wise to the fact that Wilson's massive day came thanks to Marvin Harrison Jr. being sidelined while Jacoby Brissett set the literal NFL record in pass completions. 

With all that in mind, I think a 24% EWI for Wilson is about right. He's not likely to ever crack lineups in shallow leagues, but he's worth stashing in deeper leagues based on how truly extraordinary his Week 11 outing was. 

TE AJ Barner, Seattle Seahawks (21% EWI)

Barner has flirted with fantasy relevance all season, having occasional big games (mostly thanks to touchdowns) but also plenty of complete duds. His 12.1 half-PPR-point outing on Sunday wasn't his most productive week, but it may have been his most encouraging from an underlying usage standpoint. 

The sophomore TE set new season highs in route share (82%), target share (23%), and raw targets (11). This usage may have been a one-off because the Seahawks were in a dogfight against the Rams. But if it continues, Barner should push for borderline TE1 value. He's worth stashing in deeper leagues, so this 21% EWI feels fair to go with his current 14% roster rate.  

QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (21% EWI)

An important thing to remember when looking at EWI is that two identical numbers are not created equal if the two players involved have vastly different current roster rates. Purdy may have the same 21% EWI as Barner, but, unlike the young TE, he is already rostered in 72% of leagues — his 93% projected post-waiver rostership percentage is one of the highest in this whole article. This means that if Purdy is available in your league and you want him, you should be prepared to spend up.

However, I think Purdy is worth spending up on. He has scored at least 18.8 fantasy points in all three of his starts this season, including a very efficient 19.3 against the Cardinals on Sunday. This is essentially picking up where he has left off in previous seasons as a reliable backend QB1. If that sounds like a player that would help your roster, add him. 

RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars (17% EWI)

I expect that Tuten's EWI would be much, much higher if he didn't suffer an ankle injury on the second play of the fourth quarter in Jacksonville's win over the Chargers. Prior to his early exit, the rookie was in the midst of a breakout game, recording more carries than Travis Etienne and setting by far his new career high in snap share.

Of course, suffering an injury in your breakout game isn't ideal. Tuten did say after the game that he was “good,” but we have yet to get a clear update on his status going forward. With that said, unless we get negative news before waivers run, I recommend taking advantage of the injury uncertainty and this low EWI to snag Tuten for (relatively) cheap on waivers. The explosive rookie has massive potential if he can build on the momentum he had prior to his injury on Sunday.

RB Chris Rodriguez, Washington Commanders (17% EWI)

Frankly, this EWI for Rodriguez is too low.

Yes, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has proved all season that being the Commanders' lead back isn't a guarantee of fantasy success. And yes, both JCM and Jeremy McNichols will still be involved in this backfield going forward. But Rodriguez's usage on Sunday — 15 carries and one target on a 45% snap share — made it clear he is Washington's RB1. That makes him a must-roster player. 

WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons (17% EWI)

Drake London is reportedly week-to-week after suffering a knee injury on Sunday. In his absence, Mooney will step in as the Falcons' WR1. With Michael Penix Jr. done for the year, the veteran will be the top target for Kirk Cousins … which is the same situation he was in when he let us all down massively with one catch for 11 yards on four targets in Week 8.

With that in mind, it makes sense that Mooney's EWI is mediocre. That wasn't his only dud this season, as he has generally been unproductive despite decent usage (perhaps thanks to the recently revealed fact that he broke his collarbone in training camp). But he's been productive in previous years and has zero competition to be the Falcons' WR1 for the foreseeable future. He's worth an add, at least in deep leagues. 

QB Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals (17% EWI)

There's a lot to like about Brissett. He has finished as a weekly QB1 in all five of his games as the Cardinals' starter, averaging 21.9 points per game. It was most obvious this week, but Arizona has been willing to let him keep chucking it late even in clear losses, allowing him to rack up garbage-time points.

However, we should be careful of these pocket passers getting it done on garbage-time volume for bad teams. Heading into Week 11, Joe Flacco was in a very comparable (arguably better) situation than the one Brisett is in right now. He proceeded to drop a dud even in a favorable matchup with the Steelers, scoring just 10.9 points. Even if he's producing like one right now, Brissett isn't likely to project as a QB1 in most weeks … which means he isn't worth adding in shallow formats. 

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (17% EWI)

Like his teammate Pierce, Downs' EWI is high because he was overlooked (or dropped) during the Colts' bye but is now back on managers' radars heading into Week 12.

However, unlike Pierce, I'm not excited about Downs. His usage this season has been mediocre: a 16% target share and 14% air yards share on a 61% route participation rate. Leave him on waivers.