Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.
Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices.
The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:
This week's options are interesting. We have a few committee RBs, a couple of veteran TEs who went to Stanford, and a couple of big names on the track to return from injury.
More importantly, we have a week with no clear must-adds: the top name in EWI, Emari Demercado, has just 29%, a far lower number than we usually see. This means that there is no consensus top pickup (with one potential exception hiding late in the list), so don't be afraid to go get your guy at a position of need.
While I don't disagree that Demercado is a good add, I wouldn't have him as my top pickup for Week 11. After all, he saw fewer snaps (47%-41%) and carries (10-4) than fellow Cardinals RB Bam Knight, who is also widely available, in Week 10.
Demercado did lead Arizona's backfield in routes, but it wasn't by much, and he and Knight each saw exactly four targets.
Again, this isn't me saying Demercado is someone to avoid on waivers. But if he's going to be the top option, I recommend zigging while everyone else zags and targeting Knight instead.
Honestly, I think this might be an underestimate. Burrow, who has been out since Week 2 with a turf toe injury, was designated to return from IR and returned to practice in a limited fashion on Monday. He reportedly hopes to return by the Bengals' Week 13 matchup with the Ravens.
Between his name value and potential upside, I expect Burrow to be scooped up in almost every league — given his current 57% roster rate, that means his EWI would be closer to 43%.
As for whether Burrow is worth fighting for on waivers, my answer is a tentative yes. I came into the year slightly skeptical of Burrow's ability to repeat as an elite fantasy QB. Based on his one full game, my skepticism was warranted.
But Joe Flacco is currently averaging over 25 points per game as the Bengals' starter. As much as I am a Burrow hater, he should be able to follow in Flacco's footsteps and provide solid results in this ideal situation. He's worth stashing, especially if you have an IR spot and/or need QB help.
Is it a coincidence that Schultz's best game of the season came on Sunday, when he was catching passes from his old college QB Davis Mills instead of C.J. Stroud? Maybe, maybe not.
Regardless, Schultz has quietly had solid usage all season long. He ranks 16th among TEs in route rate, seventh in target share, and 14th in air yards share.
This all paints a picture of Schultz as a borderline TE1 or high-end TE2 … which is exactly where he ranks in points per game, at 15th. I'm a little surprised to see him generating this much excitement on the waiver wire, but he is a decent add if you're looking for a stable option at the TE position.
Like Burrow, Reed has missed most of the season with an injury (a fractured collarbone). Unlike Burrow, we haven't really gotten any major updates on his recovery, so this EWI is surprising. There was a report last week that the target for his return was either Week 13 or Week 14, but speculative reports are a lot less actionable than a player actually returning to practice.
Prior to his Week 2 injury, Reed posted just a 52% route participation rate in Week 1 — that was even before Watson returned. Given the lack of concrete updates and his questionable role even when healthy, I don't recommend adding Reed this week unless you have a completely free IR spot.
As I broke down in my Week 11 running back waiver wire recommendations, Tucker's rush share in the Buccaneers' backfield is trending up. With Bucky Irving still sidelined (and seemingly not close to returning), Tucker is stealing more work from Rachaad White. Especially given he has seen some goal-line work, that is enough to get him on the fantasy radar.
However, Tucker isn't much of a pass-catcher, and White isn't going to completely disappear. He's more of an add for deeper leagues than all formats. That is reflected by his 23% EWI combined with his current 9% roster rate, meaning he is projected to be rostered in just 32% of leagues after waivers run — that sounds about right to me.
Marks, on the other hand, is already rostered in 83% of leagues. That means this 32% EWI puts his projected roster rate at … 106%? While it's obviously not actually possible, a player having a projected roster rate at or above 100% means they are the hottest add of the week.
If you are in a league where Marks is still available, you'll have to spend up to get him. Whether the rookie is worth it depends on your specific situation, but I lean toward yes.
After having seemingly settled into a roughly 50/50 split with Nick Chubb, Marks' workload took a jump forward in Week 10. Especially heading into a relatively soft schedule, he could be very valuable if he remains the Texans' clear RB1.
In many ways, Ertz is comparable to Schultz. He had a decent game in Week 10, recording his second-highest yardage total of the season at 54. And his numbers for the season are also decent (if not better than decent): 14th among TEs in route rate, ninth in target share, and fifth in air yards share.
But Ertz ranks a mediocre 16th at the position in actual half-PPR points per game. He's a decent option if you're looking for floor at the tight end position. But he's not more than a backend TE1 at best, and he's not someone to worry about missing in this week's waiver run. There are plenty of other fish in the sea of borderline TE1s.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
