FantasySP Experts React to NFL Offseason Moves: Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Zack Moss, Marquise Brown and More
FantasySP experts offer some thoughts and analysis for some the biggest NFL offseason transactions so far.
After reacting to some of the biggest moves on the first day of NFL free agency, some FantasySP experts (Brant Tedeschi, Morgan Rode and Daniel Hepner) got together again to discuss some of the other big offseason moves so far. These were moves that happened before Saturday, March 16.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold to Vikings
Morgan: This move makes a lot of sense for Minnesota as they transition to life without Kirk Cousins. Darnold has struggled as a starter in the NFL, but has plenty of weapons at his disposal in Minnesota. He’ll be a streaming option for fantasy teams next season (if he wins the starting job).
Brant: This seems like a stopgap solution for the Vikings until they figure out what quarterback can fit their needs. Losing Cousins and moving to Darnold would be a massive downgrade and I am sure they intend to keep Justin Jefferson happy. Fantasy owners should pay attention to this closely as Jefferson’s value will be tied to the new starter in 2024.
Daniel: The Vikings seem likely to attempt to trade up in the draft for one of the top rookie quarterbacks, but if they don’t make it into the top three, that player might not be ready to step in Week 1. Darnold hasn’t made much of a positive impact during his career, but he might get one more chance to show something in Minnesota. He likely won’t be a fantasy option many weeks regardless of his starting status.
Russell Wilson to Steelers
Morgan: Wilson was an average fantasy QB last season, and now moves to a franchise with a lot more stability. There’s some good weapons on the roster, so there’s no reason Wilson can’t at least be average for fantasy teams again. Wilson is a backup QB option and streamer if he goes undrafted.
Brant: At first glance, this seems like not such a big deal for the Steelers but keep in mind just how bad the Steelers were at the quarterback position and the offense in general.They were 25th in passing yards per game at 186.1 and 28th in points for with 17.9. They have nowhere to go but up and I am sure Wilson will be a viable fantasy play at times.
Daniel: The addition of Justin Fields throws this situation into flux. Wilson went from assumed starter to camp battle, even as he holds the upper hand. Pittsburgh may secretly be hoping Fields does win a theoretical battle for the starting job and becomes the quarterback of the future, but they will have just one season to make that decision.
Joe Flacco to Colts
Morgan: This move makes a lot of sense for Indy to make - Anthony Richardson gets to learn under a veteran QB, and Flacco is a great backup in case Richardson misses a bunch of games again next season. Of course, Flacco will only be a fantasy option if he gets any starts.
Brant: Flacco is a great insurance policy in the event that Richardson is to miss games. Staying in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson did not make a ton of sense to maintain a united locker room when Watson inevitably struggles. Richardson is a mobile quarterback so it’s likely that he may be banged up and miss a game or two.
Daniel: I often think teams should target backups who approximate the skill set of their starter. Two quarterbacks couldn’t be more different than Flacco and Richardson. The young passer will surely learn from the veteran, and the Colts may see the elder statesman as an insurance policy in case Richardson gets hurt again.
Drew Lock to Giants
Morgan: This is another really smart move, in my opinion. New York looks ready to move on from Daniel Jones, and Lock has shown he can be a serviceable starter at times. If Lock wins the starting job, he’d be a streaming option for fantasy teams.
Marcus Mariota to Commanders
Morgan: This is a really intriguing move to me. Depending on what the team does in the draft, Mariota has a chance to be the team’s starter next season. He’d be another streaming option if that plays out.
Sam Howell to Seahawks (trade)
Morgan: Howell was traded to Seattle after the Mariota signing. Howell should be the backup to Geno Smith with Lock out of the picture now. Howell would be another streaming option if he ever were to get any starts, but could develop into a long-term option at QB for the franchise.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones to Vikings
Morgan: Jones stays in the NFC North after being cut in Green Bay. Minnesota should have a pretty dynamic offense if they can keep Jefferson and maybe add a rookie quarterback to the mix. Jones is a good fantasy option when he’s on the field, but durability concerns will probably allow you to snag Jones later in drafts.
Brant: Not too excited here from a fantasy perspective and Jones’ value should drop in the coming season. The Vikings currently have a terrible quarterback and averaged just 91.4 rushing yards per game in 2023, which ranked them 29th in the league.
Daniel: Jones may get a starter’s workload if the team doesn’t make further additions, which would make him a streaming option. There’s still a lot to do in the offseason, but Jones is relevant in fantasy for the time being.
Derrick Henry to Ravens
Morgan: I love this from a fantasy football standpoint. Baltimore is a run-first team, and Henry gives the Ravens a workhorse the team has lacked for years. Henry isn’t the elite fantasy option he once was, but he’s got the chance to be a top-five finisher at the position in Baltimore. He should be a great value pick in fantasy drafts.
Brant: Henry will absolutely be a solid pick for fantasy and see a lot more running room than he was used to seeing in Tennessee. Having the dynamic offense of the Ravens and Lamar Jackson will make Henry’s life a whole lot easier.
Daniel: Henry’s volume will likely decrease from his Tennessee days, but that’s probably good for his health and efficiency. Henry will get carries near the goal line, though Jackson will poach plenty of touchdowns. A spot among the top-20 fantasy running backs but outside the top 10 seems likely.
Joe Mixon to Texans (trade)
Morgan: A lot of people want to write Mixon off, but he was a borderline top-10 fantasy RB last season despite Joe Burrow missing a good portion of the season. Mixon joins a very talented Houston offense, and I expect Mixon to thrive in the offense. He’s also got top-five fantasy potential at the position, but shouldn’t cost you a high pick.
Brant: The Texans will be a top-three offense in 2024 if the team can stay healthy. They have so much talent at every position and Mixon will continue to show why he’s been such a solid running back heading into his eighth year. Mixon will likely not get the same volume of touches as he had last year on the Bengals, but I still think he will be very productive.
Zack Moss to Bengals
Morgan: Moss could be the Cincy starter with Mixon out of town now. Moss showed flashes of brilliance while filling in for Jonathan Taylor, and could thrive in a lead role on a good offense. He’ll be a sleeper going into next season.
Brant: I don’t think the Bengals will be notably better on offense because of Zack Moss but I also don’t think it makes them less productive. Heading into 2024, it seems like Moss would get the bulk of the carries and actually might get more touches than Mixon will get on his new team, the Texans. Moss should be considered an RB1 in fantasy next year without fantasy owners having to look over their shoulder at Jonathan Taylor.
Daniel: Mixon was RB6 in both standard and PPR by ESPN’s measure. Moss has the same top-10 upside if he steps into a role with similar usage.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney to Falcons
Morgan: Mooney wasn’t a big fantasy player for the Bears, and now joins an offense with a ton of other strong offensive players. I don’t see Mooney being a big fantasy player in Atlanta, but he could be worth streaming from time to time next season.
Daniel: Cousins proved he can be a volume passer, and Mooney is joining the best quarterback of his career.
Diontae Johnson to Panthers (trade)
Morgan: Carolina has done a nice job surrounding Bryce Young with some more talent. Johnson could be the WR1 in Carolina in 2024, and while it might not result in a huge fantasy output, he probably will be a mid- to late-round draft pick capable of starting most weeks.
Daniel: The move from Kenny Pickett to Bryce Young seems like a horizontal shift. That would keep Johnson at the streaming level depending on matchups. Young is likely to improve in his second season, but I want to see him succeed before believing in anything Carolina.
Curtis Samuel to Bills
Morgan: I love this move for the Bills, especially if they trade Stefon Diggs. Samuel should start in the slot, regardless if Diggs is there or not. Depending on how the receiver room looks going into next season, Samuel could be another mid- to late-round pick that helps teams out from time to time.
Brant: This adds another weapon to the Bills offense outside of Diggs. Diggs was fifth in the league in total targets with 160. Samuel will see his target share increase quite a bit and make him a very viable fantasy receiver to own in 2024. The Bills' offense will likely pick up where they left off last season and continue to be very productive.
Calvin Ridley to Titans
Morgan: This is a good landing spot for Ridley from a fantasy perspective. He should be the WR1 going into next season, and a solid WR2 or 3 most weeks. The receiver could benefit from some more offensive talent around him.
Brant: Ridley was a frustrating player to own in 2023 on the Jaguars with a better quarterback. I do not expect greatness from Ridley, even though he will be a top option for targets mainly due to how terrible the quarterbacks on the Titans are. I would not expect the days of Ridley on the Falcons to return as a member of the Titans.
Marquise Brown to Chiefs
Morgan: Brown is going to be a big “sleeper” going into next season. KC has lacked an elite No. 1 wideout since Tyreek Hill left, but now has Brown or Rashee Rice that could go off any week. I expect Brown’s ADP to be pretty high by the time the season rolls around, and think he’s got a good chance of being the team’s No. 1 fantasy WR.
Brant: The Chiefs need offensive talent at the wide receiver position so badly and this will greatly help their offense. Rice paired with Brown will be productive to help alleviate the pressure on Patrick Mahomes. Brown has only had one 1,000-yard season in his career and I think that changes this coming season.
Daniel: I’m a little hesitant; I was up on the KC receivers before and into the 2023 season, even as they dropped passes and cost the team games. (I died on Kadarius Toney hill.) This move immediately made me think of Brown as a player with upside, but I was brought back to last year when no receiver truly broke out until Rice in the second half. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Keenan Allen to Bears (trade)
Morgan: This move came out of nowhere, but gives the Bears a sneaky good offense. He’ll be one of the top No. 2 receivers in the league and should be in store for a pretty big season if he can stay healthy and the Bears’ QB is at least serviceable. I don’t expect Allen to be as big a fantasy asset that he was in LA, but he’ll still be starting most weeks.
Brant: Allen with D.J. Moore makes for a nice combination in Chicago. Allen has been one of the most consistent wide receivers for the past decade, and I expect him to put up similar numbers to last year. Don’t forget that Moore ended the 2023 season with 1,364 yards and eight scores with 96 receptions. The Bears should be a pass-friendly offense and pretty explosive all around.
Daniel: This is a home run for the Bears. With Williams presumably coming in, Chicago has built one of the best offensive infrastructures in the league, accumulating talent on the line and at the skill positions. Williams will be worth drafting in fantasy because of the immediate upside, and the question will be where he fits in. Williams is set up for a rookie season closer to C.J. Stroud than Young.
Rondale Moore to Falcons (trade)
Morgan: Moore was a bit of a gadget player for the Cardinals in 2023, and he could be a decent fantasy asset if he fills a similar role in Atlanta. I like what the Falcons’ offense has assembled around Cousins, and even though there’s a lot of mouths to feed, I could see Moore being a streaming option here and there.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith to Dolphins
Morgan: There weren't a lot of big moves involving tight ends, but this one caught my attention. Miami has lacked a good tight end, and Smith showed last season that he could be a starting tight end. Now, Smith has the chance to be the team’s No. 1 option at TE, and could be a starting option quite often if he can carve out a decent role in Miami’s offense.
Daniel: Morgan makes a good point about more talent at the position, but I actually see this the opposite, where a team that doesn’t use tight ends much will depress the stats of Smith. I see it more likely Smith is anonymous than an impactful fantasy option.
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