FantasySP Experts React to Biggest Day 1 NFL Free Agency Moves: Kirk Cousins, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Gabe Davis and More
FantasySP experts offer some thoughts and analysis for the biggest offensive free agent moves on March 11.
The NFL offseason is always a fascinating time, and the first day of NFL free agency on March 11 provided plenty of big-time headlines.
A couple FantasySP experts (Morgan Rode, Brant Tedeschi and Daniel Hepner) decided to come together and share their thoughts on the biggest moves from the day. We kept our focus to some of the bigger fantasy football players and gave thoughts on quarterbacks, running backs and one wide receiver.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins to Falcons
Morgan: I really thought Cousins would be back with the Vikings, but I like the Falcons’ offensive core more. This really comes down to what kind of player Cousins will be post-injury - Atlanta must believe he’ll be the same QB if they gave him as much as they did. Cousins will slip the middle rounds of fantasy drafts next season and probably be a really popular pick for those that miss out on the top-end talents at the position.
Brant: The Atlanta Falcons were 22nd in passing yards per game with 207.3 and 26th in points per game at 18.9. Sure, Desmond Ridder was not good and Cousins is surely an upgrade for the entire offense. Keep in mind Drake London was the only productive receiver last year with 905 yards and two touchdowns and 69 catches. Kyle Pitts of course is worth owning as well. I love Bijan Robinson, but I think expectations should be relatively low on Cousins in his first year. Do fantasy owners see themselves reaching for Cousins or is he on your bench or a bye week replacement hoping for a good matchup?
Daniel: This is the move Atlanta needed to make to take the next step. With first-round talent at nearly every offensive position, Cousins was the missing piece to complete the team. Rather than getting a young quarterback and attempting to build around him, Atlanta went the opposite direction, creating a great core for a new passer. London and Pitts see the most immediate bump from a fantasy perspective, as they will be catching passes from an above-average player. The team should also score more touchdowns, which will benefit Robinson and everyone on the offense.
Gardner Minshew to Raiders
Morgan: I like this move a bunch for the Raiders. It allows the team to either give Aidan O'Connell more time to develop, or take a QB in the upcoming draft and have them sit behind Minshew until they are ready. Minshew has shown he’s a capable starting quarterback at a few different places, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t be successful here too. The team will need to add some offensive firepower around Minshew in order for fantasy owners to feel comfortable drafting/starting Minshew next season.
Daniel: This move paired with the Christian Wilkins signing shows the Raiders are going for it, not looking to subtract. Regardless of other quarterback moves, Minshew gives Vegas a higher floor than O'Connell and should win a preseason battle between the two. If there is more to come with a first round quarterback, everything changes, but this puts the Raiders in position to make a run at the playoffs as a Wild Card team. For Las Vegas pass catchers, this is a boon. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers played well last season, but stability under center will give them a chance to operate like a top duo if everything comes together. More moves will follow, but this sets a floor for Raider skill players.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley to Eagles
Morgan: I am not a huge fan of this landing spot for Barkley. Jalen Hurts is going to steal a bunch of touchdowns away, and Philly has always used multiple RBs to get the job done. Maybe that will help Barkley remain healthy through the entire season, but it would also hurt his fantasy outlook. I still see Barkley as an early second-round pick in fantasy drafts for 2024, but I’ll let someone else gamble on him.
Brant: Health has been a huge issue for Barkley, but if he can remain healthy, there is no doubt that he improves in all stats from last year. Saquon will be fresher and may not see the volume he had but he will surely be more productive when he’s on the field. I do like the move and think this hurts Jalen’s value more than anything in terms of total rushing touchdowns.
Daniel: I hate big running back contracts, but in fantasy terms, Barkley couldn’t have found a much better fit from an efficiency standpoint. Morgan pointed out the downsides: Multiple backs in the rotation and Hurts running in touchdowns. It’s more about everything else, though, that has me excited. On a team with championship aspirations and without having to carry the entire load, Barkley could conceivably miss games with injury, though that’s purely speculation with no evidence to back it up. He will have one of the best offensive situations as far as blocking and talent around him, and that should help him produce while on the field. There are downsides, but Barkley will likely be a fantasy second-round pick.
D'Andre Swift to Bears
Morgan: Instead of building around their younger running backs, Chicago added Swift to lead the backfield. It looks like Caleb Williams will be the team’s quarterback, and if the Bears can add another receiver in free agency or the draft, they will have a really nice offensive core to build around. I’d expect Swift to be a big part of the team’s offense in an effort to not put so much on Williams’ plate right away. This move bumped up Swift’s fantasy stock.
Daniel: What does Swift add that isn’t on the roster? No back on Chicago’s roster is a star, but the Bears are paying good money to acquire a player who doesn’t raise the ceiling of the team much. Swift had by far his best season in 2023 with the Eagles. Miles Sanders had a career year in 2022 with Philadelphia before signing a decent contract with Carolina, only to crater without talent around him. The same is possible for Swift, and even if he does play well, there’s not much upside in this contract.
Josh Jacobs to Packers
Morgan: This was one of the more intriguing moves of the day. I expected the Packers to add a running back to complement Aaron Jones, but wasn’t expecting it to be a RB like Jacobs. Then, the Packers turned around and cut Jones, so Jacobs is now the undisputed No. 1 back in Green Bay. The team will likely draft another RB, but Jacobs should be the team’s workhorse for at least 2024. In an up-and-coming offense, I see Jacobs thriving with the Packers’ offense and think this greatly boosted Jacob’s fantasy stock.
Brant: The Packers shocked everyone last year with just how good they were considering all of the new faces. Jones actually was pretty productive with a 4.6 YPC, but the problem was getting the total touches required to make a difference for fantasy owners. Will Jacobs get the volume required to make him a fantasy stud? The offense will be electric, but there will be a lot of mouths to feed.
Tony Pollard to Titans
Morgan: Pollard moves from the Cowboys to the Titans and will look to replace Derrick Henry. I still expect Tyjae Spears to play a decent role on the team’s offense, so I wouldn’t necessarily call Pollard the workhorse right now. I think the split role could help Pollard bounce back from a down 2023 season, but I don’t think fantasy owners will be spending an early pick on him.
Brant: I think Pollard is a salvageable back for the Titans’ offense but do not see a very high volume opportunity for him with the Titans. Pollard never really proved himself in Dallas and fantasy owners have a bad taste in their mouth for drafting him as high as they did last year. He went from a 5.2 YPC in 2022 to 4.0 in 2023.
Austin Ekeler to Commanders:
Morgan: Ekeler will play for a new team in 2024, moving from the Chargers to the Commanders. I’m not exactly sure why Washington felt the need to add Ekeler, but he does provide a veteran presence for the young QB they likely will be drafting. Ekeler should be RB1, but I think his workhorse days are past him. He’ll be a fantasy asset, but you’ll probably be playing matchups with him.
Gus Edwards to Chargers
Morgan: This is another move that I think boosted the fantasy stock for the RB. As of now, Edwards looks like the clear No. 1 back for LA, after having to share the RB duties with several backs in Baltimore. If the Chargers don’t add any more backs between now and the start of the season, I can see Edwards being a great value pick in fantasy drafts.
Devin Singletary to Giants
Morgan: Singletary will replace Barkley in New York. Singletary didn’t necessarily wow with the Texans, but unless New York adds another back, Singletary should be the unquestioned No. 1 option for the upcoming season. It’s not a great offense right now, but that doesn’t mean Singletary can’t be a pretty solid fantasy asset.
Wide Receivers
Gabe Davis to Jaguars
Morgan: Davis looks like he is basically replacing Calvin Ridley in the Jacksonville offense. Davis showed flashes of brilliance with the Bills over the past few seasons, but couldn’t consistently deliver for fantasy owners. A new start could work in Davis’ favor, although there’s more established pass catchers in Jacksonville, so more up-and-down performances could be upcoming for Davis in 2024.
Daniel: There are better ways to spend $13 million than on a guy who couldn’t consistently contribute in one of the best offenses in the league. Davis has similar traits to current Jags receiver Christian Kirk, but Kirk is a better player. The hope will be that he connects with Trevor Lawrence as a deep threat, but Davis couldn’t do it with Josh Allen, and I’m skeptical he has another level to his game. Davis is still a fantasy WR4 probably, best used as a streamer.
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