Saturday's Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers: Alvarez, Nola, and More
Four starting pitchers with good matchups on Saturday who are widely available in fantasy leagues.
The Boston Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball, having won nine in a row and 18 of 21 since the All-Star break. Boston looked dead in the water in mid-June, but they also won nine straight heading into the break, bringing themselves from as low as 31-45 on June 22 to 64-51 currently.
The Red Sox are now in great position to make the postseason, likely as a wild card, but if they continue like this, they could fight for the AL East, as they only sit five games back. One of the most disappointing teams in the league suddenly became a real contender in under two months; there might still be hope for your favorite team if they are on the outside looking in.
Moving to fantasy baseball, let's look at four starting pitchers in action on Saturday who have good matchups and are widely available in fantasy leagues. Most stats are from MLB.com, as are the probable starters. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.
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Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Alvarez has been working both as a starter and a bulk pitcher who takes over after an opener; both roles turn out to be essentially the same thing, though the latter offers a little more value (but can result in shorter outings). Alvarez has only thrown 87 1/3 big-league innings, 64 of them this season, and he has been average with strikeouts while walking too many guys. He has been good limiting hits, runs, and especially home runs (only three homers allowed in his career), but the control problems could cause issues if hitters start squaring him up more often.
Cincinnati hits home runs and draws walks, but they don't do anything else at even an average level. The Reds rank last in both hits and batting average, not putting on enough runners to score when the big hits do come, as they rank in the bottom five in runs scored. Cincinnati does one thing that makes them an exceptional fantasy target: strike out. The Reds are among the top three in most batter Ks, setting a high ceiling for opposing pitchers.
Alvarez is a mid-level streamer. He has been good in his short time, and the Reds are a strong target given their big strikeout numbers. Alvarez is also fantastic at keeping the ball in the park, offsetting Cincinnati's best asset.
Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants
The Giants were one of our regular targets early in the season, but they started performing better and moved themselves off our list. They present a better matchup when playing at home, though, as Oracle Park in San Francisco plays as a good pitcher's park. When looking only at the games that teams have played in their home stadium, the Giants rank in the bottom 10 (or very close to it) in most areas, including the bottom five in runs scored and home runs. They don't strike out much, but San Fran sets a decent floor when they play at home (and they are last in the league in walks).
Jobe had Tommy John surgery last June and has missed more than a year; this is his return to the big leagues. The third overall pick in 2021, Jobe put up very good minor league stats, and he looked promising in 53 major league innings before undergoing surgery. His walk rate was too high and strikeout rate too low, but that's in a small sample, and his K work in the minors was much better. There's plenty of risk here with a guy returning after such a long layoff, but Jobe has upside to perform much better moving forward.
Jobe is a low-to-mid-level streamer. Risk-averse owners will want to stay away, but I included Jobe here for the risk takers, those who need a spark as we head toward the final stretch of the season. The matchup is just OK, but Jobe has potential for big things (though it might not come right away).
Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Kay has been successful in his return from two seasons in Japan, holding very average numbers in most box stats, including allowing runs, hits, and walks. He has been below average with strikeouts, but everything else has been good for a surprising White Sox team. Kay is on a streak of strong starts, allowing two or fewer runs in five of his past six starts since the beginning of July (and he only gave up three runs in the other start). There's not a great ceiling, but Kay is worth considering when the matchup is right.
Cleveland is one of our favorite targets, ranking in the bottom five in many box stats and not ranking even average in any area other than drawing walks, which they do very well. They have been better over the past month, as the Guardians rank more as an average offensive team in that time, but the season-long numbers point to them as a well-below-average lineup. They added Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell at the trade deadline to boost the lineup, and Jose Ramirez is back from the IL, but I'm comfortable going after Cleveland often until further notice.
Kay is a low-to-mid-level streamer. The matchup is good, and he has been an asset for Chicago, but Kay's lower strikeout rate keeps his ceiling down, and Cleveland has been a little better recently.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays rank in the bottom three in runs, home runs, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They aren't above an average level in any area aside from a lack of strikeouts, where they are among the bottom three in batter Ks. Toronto has been especially bad over the past month-plus, ranking in the bottom 10 in everything in that time; this is as vulnerable a team as we have to go after right now.
Nola is owned in close to 50% of leagues, making him more of a fringe streamer, but there's still plenty of availability, making it worth checking with such a strong matchup. Nola was previously a pitcher who was owned in every fantasy league, but his performance has fallen off. In 214 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, Nola has been better than average with both walks and strikeouts, but he has given up 231 hits, 137 earned runs (5.75 ERA), and 46 home runs (one every 4.7 innings), each number worse than average. There's real risk to go with some upside.
Nola is a low-to-mid-level streamer. I could be tempted to bump him up another half-notch, but Nola really has been hit hard the past two years, out of line with his career rates. The matchup couldn't be much better, making this an intriguing play.
Saturday's Streamer Rankings
- Andrew Alvarez, WSH
- Aaron Nola, PHI
- Anthony Kay, CWS
- Jackson Jobe, DET
