Rays Trade Shane Baz and Brandon Lowe: Real-Life and Fantasy Baseball Impact

The Tampa Bay Rays were busy on Friday, sending starting pitcher Shane Baz to the Baltimore Orioles and infielder Brandon Lowe to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Tampa is notorious for trading established MLB talent for prospects, and that's what they did here as well.

In exchange for those two, left-handed reliever Mason Montgomery, and outfielder Jake Mangum (the latter two each have about one season of experience and are headed to Pittsburgh with Lowe), the Rays received six prospects with limited MLB exposure at most and a competitive-balance draft pick. That's a team trying to pump talent into their farm system.

Let's go through the real-life and fantasy baseball implications from these two trades. The fantasy impact will mostly relate to Baz and Lowe, but other players will also be mentioned where applicable. Most stats are from MLB.com.

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Orioles Get Their Ace (Maybe)

Since last offseason, the biggest story around Baltimore was whether they were going to import a front-line starting pitcher, either through trade or free agency. That never materialized, as Zach Eflin was the biggest name brought in (in a 2024 trade), a capable pitcher but much better as a team's third pitcher in the playoffs.

They now have Baz and Kyle Bradish at the top of the rotation after the latter returned late last season from Tommy John surgery and looked good in a small sample. With guys like Dean Kremer, Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Tyler Wells among the candidates to fill out the final three spots, Baltimore is much better off from a rotation perspective than they were last year.

Is Baz really an ace, though? He's 26 years old and has only one full season under his belt, missing all of 2023 and half of 2024 after his own Tommy John surgery. He has generally had an above-average strikeout rate and average walk rate and has good velocity, but both box and advanced stats peg him as closer to an average pitcher, probably a little above average.

There is still upside given his age, and he was a first-round pick out of high school in 2017, so he has pedigree. Baltimore is surely thinking that Baz's best days are ahead of him, as they gave up a bounty, including two guys drafted in the top 40 last year and their competitive-balance Round A pick.

Fantasy Baseball Impact

Many will expect the Orioles to be better this season, both because of the better pitching staff and the chance for the offense to bounce back after a down season from multiple big-name guys. More team wins mean more chances for pitcher wins, so Baz would be seen as a more valuable fantasy player if we knew Baltimore would be a winning team again.

He will strike batters out, but staying in the AL East means more games against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, setting up tough matchups. Baz will be a decent late-round fantasy bet, but he's not a guy to reach for with an expectation of a huge jump (I prefer Bradish as a fantasy player and see him as the more likely pitcher to emerge as a true ace).

Pittsburgh Improves Their Offense

The jokes are easy when reports come out that the Pirates made offers (or at least discussed it) to Josh Naylor and Kyle Schwarber. A team that has run a shoestring budget has now floundered around the best pitcher in baseball for two seasons, so at least they are doing something to upgrade the lineup.

Lowe played almost exclusively at second base last season, filling in a few times at first and slotting at DH for just under 40 at-bats. He is likely to do the same this season, holding down second base with younger players around him unless further moves are made (which is possible).

Lowe hit 31 home runs last season, the second most of his career behind 39 in 2021. He had 21 in each of the previous two years in fewer games, hitting a homer about every 18 at-bats in those two seasons. He hit one out around once every 16 at-bats in 2025 and was at 13.7 in 2021.

His batting average was up, but his walks and on-base percentage dropped last season. He was a little better slugging due to the increase in home runs, but the most important thing for the Pirates is that he is going to greatly improve one spot in their lineup.

Fantasy Baseball Impact

If Pittsburgh doesn't improve their offense further, Lowe is going to have fewer RBI and run-scoring opportunities than he did last season. The Pirates were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball; they need a few more Lowes just to approach average.

That could also affect his hits and home runs, as teams will pitch around Lowe if there aren't other guys who will make them pay. This is an incomplete grade right now, but I'm not excited about Lowe's current fantasy outlook, especially since he'll probably be drafted higher after topping 30 homers.

A Reset for Tampa Bay

No iteration of the Rays ever stays around for long. Certain guys have long careers in Tampa, like Evan Longoria, but even playoff heroes are often traded away when their contract is about to either expire or get expensive. These trades were very on-brand.

While the two trades are likely to make them worse in 2026, they also give the Rays a better shot in the future, and that might be the best plan of action right now. The Blue Jays just went to extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series, and the Yankees made it to the championship the year before.

Both teams are loading up (or are expected to) for another run, and the Red Sox and Orioles both have a lot of talent and the ability to make the postseason. Tampa finished 17 games back in the division and 10 back in the wild card, so they might realistically be thinking that it's a good time to retool rather than make a push with a subpar roster.

ESPN gave the Rays a B+ grade for the Lowe trade and an A for the Baz trade, noting that they are doing what they do in turning veterans into controllable seasons. There could be more to come, and while they have earned the benefit of the doubt, Tampa Bay looks to be on a slight downswing before the next round of young guys is ready to compete.

There aren't a lot of instant fantasy repercussions here, as many of the prospects will take a little time to make a real fantasy impact. Carson Williams, a first-round pick in 2021, is likely to take over second base, though his bat never looked great in the minor leagues, so he won't be on the fantasy draft radar.