MLB Trade Breakdowns: Jhoan Duran and Ryan Helsley Find New Homes

Here we go. Less than 24 hours from the trade deadline (6 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday), the big names have started moving. Star Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran is headed to the Philadelphia Phillies, while St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley is now a Met, joining fellow relievers Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers, who were recently acquired by New York.

Duran might be the biggest reliever to change teams at the deadline and gives his team an upgrade in the ninth inning while moving other guys to lower-leverage roles where they might be more effective. Helsley won't close with Edwin Diaz in place for New York, but he will pitch some tough innings, especially come playoff time.

Let's look at the real-life and fantasy implications of these two moves, particularly how the acquiring teams have changed. We'll also take a short look at some of the players affected on the teams who traded the highly regarded relievers.

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Jhoan Duran is Philadelphia's New Closer

The Phillies have been relying heavily on Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Tanner Banks, and Jordan Romano for the majority of their relief appearances. They've mostly been fine. Romano has struggled, allowing 30 runs in 38 1/3 innings, but the others have found success to different degrees. No one has been close to a shutdown pitcher, though.

That's what will be expected out of Duran. The former Minnesota closer worked mostly as a setup man in 2022 before taking over the closer role full time in 2023. Since then, he has saved 66 games and struck out 203 batters in 166 innings, holding a career strikeout rate over 30% (league average is around 22%).

Duran's K rate has dropped each of the past two seasons from the previous year, and his walk rate is just a hair higher than average, but it still leaves him as a high-level reliever capable of shutting down the end of games for one of the National League favorites. Philadelphia now has a much more formidable bullpen, as Strahm can be a lefty relief ace with Kerkering filling the same role from the right side. When Duran comes into the game with a lead, Philly has to feel good about their chances of walking away with the win.

Duran's Fantasy Value

His strikeout rate should remain about the same, but Duran's save chances are likely to increase. The Twins have a 51-57 record, while the Phillies are 61-47.

With Minnesota subtracting players as Philadelphia adds, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them win close to 10 more games than Duran's old team over the final two months. He suddenly turns into one of the most coveted closers in fantasy baseball from an opportunity standpoint.

Who Steps in for Minnesota?

The Twins, again, will probably lose more games, leaving their new closer with fewer save chances. That man seems set to be Griffin Jax according to depth charts and closer charts, with Louis Varland also an option.

Jax has real appeal, as he has a career strikeout rate over 27%. Over the past two years, Jax has struck out close to 35% of the hitters he has faced, a phenomenal rate. With those numbers and possible save chances coming, he should be a fantasy target for anyone with room for a bullpen arm.

Given how infrequently closers get save opportunities, Jax probably won't be too much worse than Duran as a fantasy player over the final two months (though who knows what will happen). I recommend Jax as a worthy flyer.

Ryan Helsley Joins the Pennant Race

While the Cardinals aren't necessarily out of it, their chances of really competing for October are going down as they send players out. In moving to the Mets, Helsley joins a team that is close to 10 games better and has much more top-line talent ready to compete at the highest level.

Helsley fits the profile of a closer: he walks just a few too many guys but also holds a career strikeout rate more than 29% in his career and an ERA under 3.00. Helsley would have been a fine pickup to fill in at closer for any team with a need (like Philadelphia).

Adding him to Soto and Rogers creates a suddenly stout bullpen for a team that sits in the middle in bullpen WAR, setting them up as a dangerous unit if the starter can get through five innings. These moves should help ease the minds of Mets fans who were sweating the late innings as the bullpen got worn out.

Helsley Loses Fantasy Value

Diaz isn't letting go of that closer spot, though, leaving Helsley in a setup role. In real life, he's probably happy for the move to a contender and the chance to go for a World Series ring. He's a free agent after the season and can go find big money on the market in the offseason, and no team is going to dock Helsley for not picking up saves over the final two months.

In fantasy baseball, though, Helsley still offers strikeout upside, but his lack of saves drops him to solely a deep-league option and a player who will be dropped in many leagues. He's a worthy backup plan if Diaz were to suffer an injury, but the reality is that Helsley's time as a fantasy contributor is probably done until 2026.

Where do the Cardinals Stand?

St. Louis probably won't tank, so the man who takes over the closer role should still get some opportunities. Phil Maton looks like the guy, with lefty JoJo Romero also in line to possibly get some ninth-inning work.

Maton is another guy with a strikeout rate over 30% this year, though his career rate is closer to 26% (still above average). He has walked a few too many guys but also limits hits well and has given up just one home run in 38 1/3 innings. Romero's numbers are very much the same, just with a walk rate and strikeout rate a little worse.

Maton is a worthy flyer who will probably be a better fantasy player than Helsley the rest of the way (and Romero fits that same profile if he ends up getting most of the closer work). Neither guy will be a star, but they are serviceable fantasy relievers.