August 11 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers: MacKenzie Gore, Luis Severino, Albert Suarez and More

I said yesterday that the AL West might have the best finish of any division. One reason is because the team who doesn’t win the division probably isn’t making the playoffs. The AL East might have the two best teams in the American League, the Orioles and Yankees.

When both teams are almost definitely going to make the postseason, it takes a little juice away from the race. Yes, the winner will get a bye while the second-place team has to play in a three-game Wild Card Round matchup, but it’s not the same do-or-die feeling throughout September.

Let’s run through Sunday’s probable starters (according to MLB.com) who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups, creating streaming value. Most stats and rankings are from MLB. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.

Hayden Birdsong, San Francisco Giants @ Detroit Tigers

Hayden Birdsong makes me think of Harvey Birdman, Attorney at Law; I’m rooting for him. Birdsong was listed here as a quasi-streamer on a slow day before his last start on Tuesday. He allowed seven runs against Washington in just two innings, striking out one with three walks. While his strikeout rate is great (39 Ks in 32.1 innings), his walk rate is almost five percentage points higher than the average. That lack of control won’t allow him to have sustained success.

Detroit had a stretch of good play early in the season, but the full season has been rough. They are in the bottom 10 in most offensive stats, most notably in the bottom four in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. They are 11th in most batter strikeouts and 22nd in walks, not helping themselves in the things they can (somewhat) control.

Birdsong is a low- to mid-level streamer. His strikeout rate gives him the chance at a big outing any day, but Birdsong’s control issues are enough to sink any start if he can’t find the touch.

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels

Gore is one of my favorite streamers. He ends up here a lot, and a big part of the reason is his strikeout rate, which is close to 25% (versus the league average of 21-22%). He’s just a hair worse than average with walks, but he brought that number down both last year and this year to a rate right near average. He’s had some trouble preventing runs since the middle of June, currently on a streak of allowing at least three runs in eight of his past nine starts.

We reach a point in the season where we just want the pain to end for some teams. For the White Sox, that was in late April. For normal teams, it starts around the All-Star break and creeps into September. The Angels are at that point. They are in the bottom 10 across the board on offense, and there’s no reason to expect anything better before the season ends.

Gore is a mid- to high-level streamer. His strikeouts always give him the chance at a successful outing, even if he gives up some runs, and the matchup puts him in position for a good day.

JP Sears, Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays

Sears does well limiting walks but is a little lower than average with strikeouts. He was above average last season in 172.1 innings, but that’s the only time he has done that well with Ks. He’s likely to stay closer to the level he has shown this season (18.2%). Sears is on a bit of a heater: his last two starts have combined for 14 innings, one run allowed, 14 strikeouts and just two walks.

Toronto is weak on offense but not as bad as some of the others listed here. They are still in or close to the bottom 10 in many of the offensive box stats, but they are closer to 20th in a lot of those numbers rather than the bottom. Blue Jay hitters are in the bottom 10 in most batter strikeouts and top 10 in walks, so they don’t create a high ceiling for opposing pitchers.

Sears is a low- to mid-level streamer. His recent success is encouraging, but his strikeout work being down plus the matchup being just OK points more toward middling upside.

Luis Severino, New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle is such an interesting case for our purposes: They are a division leader fighting for the postseason while every other team listed here is playing out the string, maybe with slight wild card potential. The Mariners are riding some of the best pitching in the league, though, while carrying maybe a bottom-five offense. Most importantly, Seattle batters have struck out over 50 more times than any other team.

Severino is down from his prime performance but is still putting up good innings for a team currently in playoff position. The Mets won’t catch the Phillies in the division, but they are above the Braves in the NL East and currently own a wild card spot. Severino is right around average with walks but below average in strikeouts, falling from a great rate earlier in his career.

Severino is a mid-level streamer with a little upside. The matchup is great, and his past strikeout work gives a little hope for a bigger performance than he has shown this year.

Albert Suarez, Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

Suarez has made one start against Tampa this year, allowing just one run in five innings back in May while striking out five and walking two. I thought his innings count (83.2) might have a chance to catch up with him, but Suarez topped 117 innings in each of the previous three seasons while playing in foreign leagues, maxing out at 173.2. His strikeout and walk rates are both a little worse than average, but Suarez has been a usable pitcher this whole season.

Tampa is feeling the effects of shedding talent at the trade deadline. Over the last week, they are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, hits, home runs and all four slash categories. That’s a season-long trend, not just an August thing: the Rays have a bottom-10 ranking in each of those stats over the full season other than on-base percentage, where they are close to the average.

Suarez is a mid-level streamer. He’s done well with a little inconsistency, and Tampa Bay is a team to target with essentially any starting pitcher.

Sunday’s Streamer Rankings

1. MacKenzie Gore, WSH
2. Luis Severino, NYM
3. Albert Suarez, BAL
4. Hayden Birdsong, SF
5. JP Sears, OAK