July 12 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers: Sean Manaea, James Paxton, Carlos Carrasco and More

I bet a lot of players are on cruise control during this last weekend series before the All-Star break. You know when you have a long weekend, like Thanksgiving week, and Monday-Wednesday you don’t get anything done because you’re looking forward to four days off? That’s the feeling I imagine most players have after three-plus grueling months of baseball.

Let’s run through Friday’s probable starters (according to MLB.com) who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups, creating streaming value. Most stats and rankings are from MLB. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.

Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners

Each of his last two starts, I listed Anderson here because the matchups were good (Detroit then the Cubs) but gave the caveat that his strikeout and walk rates were those of a poor pitcher. Detroit roughed him up a bit, scoring six runs in 4.2 innings, but Anderson walked into Wrigley Field last Saturday and threw eight shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, no walks and just three hits allowed.

Mixed results; so much like life, right? Well, guess what: Anderson has a really good matchup, but I have to give the caveat that his strikeout and walk rates are those of a struggling pitcher (both several percentage points worse than league average).

There’s not much new to say about the Mariners. Their pitchers are some of the best in the league, but the offense rivals the White Sox and a few others for worst in the league. Their abundance of strikeouts (close to 1,000) makes them a high-ceiling opponent, and they don’t make up for it in other areas.

Anderson is a mid-level streamer. I can’t put my full belief in him, even as he continues to excel, but the matchup is right, and I won’t deny that Anderson keeps pitching well.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa continues their run as one of the most disappointing teams of 2024, ranking in the bottom five in runs scored, hits and home runs and in the bottom 10 in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. They are also in the top 10 in most batter strikeouts.

Carrasco has been a below-average pitcher for two years, failing to strike out batters the way he did through most of his career and holding an ERA over 5.00. Cleveland is one of the most likely teams to add starting pitching help at the trade deadline, as the offense has surprisingly been carrying the team while Carrasco and others struggle.

Carrasco is a low-level streamer. He is far from the guy who won 35 games in 2017-18 while striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faced, now struggling to make a positive impact on a playoff contender.

Sean Manaea, New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies

Manaea gets the benefit of facing the Rockies away from Coors Field, taking them from a team worth fearing to one who fits squarely in the bottom third of the league. Colorado is fighting with the Red Sox for third place in most batter strikeouts and is in the bottom 10 in runs scored and home runs despite playing half their games a mile above sea level.

The Mets’ pitcher is striking batters out at a good clip but also holding the worst walk rate of his career (almost 10.5% versus the league average around 8%). His last three starts have combined for 18 innings with just two runs allowed (one earned). Though his 14 strikeouts and 10 walks during that stretch weren’t a good enough ratio, the veteran has been finding success.

Manaea is a mid- to high-level streamer here. His strikeout work will play up against a team that struggles to make contact, giving him a big ceiling.

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto comes up more often on the trade rumor mill than the wild card hunt this season, as they are battling with Tampa Bay for most disappointing team in their division. This team might be unrecognizable in August and September if they choose to ship out names like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette rather than keeping their second-generation crew together. The numbers back up a teardown, but that’s easier said than done.

Nelson doesn’t strike many hitters out, but he has been very good limiting walks, holding a rate almost 2.5 percentage points lower than average. Advanced stats aren’t on his side (other than with walks), so Nelson’s season and career ERA near 5.00 probably isn’t about to come down much. He’s an average-to-below-average pitcher.

Nelson is a low- to mid-level streamer. He doesn’t strike guys out, and the Blue Jays don’t strike out much, so his ceiling is low in this one.

James Paxton, Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers

Paxton is following a facsimile of Anderson, sporting both a K rate and BB rate worse than average but carrying a 7-2 record. It’s nice playing with the best team in baseball, isn’t it? Paxton has much better career numbers, but his superficial stats aren’t nearly as good as his true performance in 2024.

The Tigers offer a good shot at extending Paxton’s winning ways, sitting four games below .500 and seeing their best work come from the pitchers. Detroit isn’t at the bottom in offense, but they are below average in most areas and in the bottom 10 in all four slash categories.

Paxton is another low- to mid-level streamer. The lack of strikeouts will hold him down, but better work in the past gives a little hope for positive results, and Detroit is an OK matchup.

Carson Spiers, Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins

Miami is in the bottom two in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. It’s not just that they have a bad offense; the Marlins are in the basement and only likely to get worse when a few spare parts are traded before the deadline. This team is worth targeting with essentially every pitcher in fantasy.

In just 55 big-league innings, Spiers has done well limiting walks but also hasn’t struck out a ton of guys. His minor league strikeout work was better, so maybe that will improve as he gets more innings under his belt, but we don’t have a lot to go on with Spiers at this point.

Spiers is a mid-level streamer. The matchup is juicy, but I can’t put him too high until he shows higher quality work at the big-league level.

Friday’s Streamer Rankings

1. Sean Manaea, NYM
2. Tyler Anderson, LAA
3. Carson Spiers, CIN
4. James Paxton, LAD
5. Ryne Nelson, ARI
6. Carlos Carrasco, CLE