5 Fantasy Hockey Defensemen You Should Be Drafting Earlier
Shelmo continues his three-part fantasy draft series by identifying defensemen whose current ADP doesn't reflect their true fantasy value and who should be moving up draft boards heading into this season.
Hey folks. We kicked off this three-part series by looking at the forwards who I believe are being drafted too late. Now it's time to move to the blue line.
Defensemen can be especially tricky in fantasy hockey. There are plenty of players who can give you respectable point totals, but the truly elite defensemen can provide a massive advantage because of their combination of scoring, powerplay production, shots and peripheral categories. Finding those players before the rest of your league catches on can make a huge difference.
Just like with the forwards, these aren't necessarily traditional "sleepers." Some are already established stars, while others are young players with enormous upside. The common thread is that I believe their current ADP doesn't accurately reflect what they can provide this season, whether that's because of an expanded role, an elite powerplay opportunity, a breakout coming, or simply a lack of respect from the fantasy community.
And there are some particularly interesting names on this list. We're talking about a teenager who just had one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen from a defensemen, an established superstar who may still be going too late, and multiple young offensive defensemen who could become fantasy difference makers for years to come.
ADP is a useful guide, but just like we discussed with the forwards, it shouldn't dictate your draft strategy. If you believe a defensemen is going to outperform his draft position, don't be afraid to move him up your board and take him before the market does.
Let's dive in and get into the defensemen you should be targeting.
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Matthew Schaefer - New York Islanders
Schaefer with an ADP of 30 is insane to me, especially in a dynasty league. This is a premier defensemen of the future, and I would have him second only to Cale Makar when it comes to elite skill and long-term fantasy value. The Islanders have found the player they can build their franchise around for decades to come.
And honestly, Schaefer has already given us plenty of reason to believe. As an 18-year-old rookie, he put up 59 points in 82 games, including 23 goals and 36 assists, while averaging more than 24 minutes per night. He led all rookie defensemen in goals, points, powerplay points and shots, and became the youngest Calder Trophy winner in NHL history.
That's an absolutely ridiculous foundation for a player who is still only 18.
The offensive upside is what really gets me excited for fantasy. Schaefer has elite vision and the ability to quarterback an offense from the blue line, and I expect him to become the focal point of the Islanders' powerplay. He already produced 18 powerplay points as a rookie, despite playing on an Islanders' powerplay that had plenty of room for improvement.
I also don't think we've come close to seeing his ceiling yet. His rookie season was already historically good, and he did it without needing sheltered minutes or years of development before earning the trust of his coaching staff. Now he gets another season of experience, more responsibility and an opportunity to become the undisputed offensive engine from the back end.
In dynasty, this is the kind of player you build around. I want the defensemen who could give me elite production for the next 10-plus years, and Schaefer has that kind of trajectory.
At 30 ADP, I think you're still getting a discount on the player he is going to become. He was my standout defenseman last season, and I would be taking him aggressively in dynasty. Give him the puck on the powerplay and watch him dish apples like nobody's business.
Rasmus Dahlin - Buffalo Sabres
Dahlin at an ADP of 39 is insulting. This is one of the best all-around defensemen in the NHL, and I don't think he should be falling out of the second round in any format.
Dahlin is still just 26 years old, already has years of elite production behind him, and continues to contribute in virtually every category you want from a fantasy defensemen. He isn't a player you draft hoping for a breakout. You know exactly what you're getting: points, powerplay production, shots, blocks, hits and massive minutes every single night.
What makes his current ADP even more confusing to me is the direction the Buffalo Sabres are heading. Buffalo finally turned all of that young talent into a legitimate playoff push last season, and Dahlin is at the center of everything they do. As the Sabres continue to mature and become a more dangerous offensive team, I expect Dahlin to benefit from that growth rather than be overlooked because of it.
This is also a player who can dominate fantasy without needing to lead the league in scoring from the blue line. His value comes from being an all-around beast. When Dahlin is healthy, he is going to play huge minutes, quarterback the powerplay, drive offense at five-on-five and contribute across the board. That consistency is incredibly valuable over a full fantasy season.
At 39 ADP, you're getting a player who should be firmly in the second-round conversation. I would have no problem taking him ahead of that ADP, especially now that the Sabres look ready to take another step forward.
Dahlin isn't a sleeper. He's a superstar being drafted like he's merely very good. I want him on my fantasy team, and I don't want to wait until the third round to get him.
Lane Hutson - Montreal Canadiens
Hutson at an ADP of 50 is low, but the real head scratcher for me is how many defensemen are being drafted ahead of him. This guy is an apple orchard all by himself, and he's doing it while playing on a young Montreal Canadiens team that continues to get better around him.
Let's think about this; on his quarterbacked powerplay unit, you have the likes of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Ivan Demidov. 50? What are we doing here?
Hutson isn't some up-and-coming defenseman waiting to establish himself. He is already the No. 1 defensemen in Montreal, and in my opinion, he would be the No. 1 blueliner on almost every team in the league. He finished last season with 78 points in 82 games, good for fourth among all NHL defensemen, while his 66 assists ranked second at the position. He also finished third among defensemen in even strength points.
And this was his second NHL season.
That's what makes his ADP so confusing. Hutson isn't a gamble on whether the production will come. The production is already here. He won the Calder Trophy as a rookie after putting up 66 points, then immediately improved to 78 points in his sophomore season. He has also become one of the best powerplay quarterbacks in the NHL, giving him an extremely reliable avenue to rack up assists.
I have Hutson as a top-five fantasy defensemen, and I don't think we've remotely seen his peak yet. He's only 22 years old, he's already playing huge minutes, and the talent surrounding him in Montreal is getting better. There is tons of offensive talent to work with, and Hutson is going to be right in the middle of it.
So no, I'm not looking at Hutson at 50 and thinking I'm taking a risky young player. I'm looking at a dynamite fantasy defensemen who hasn't exploded into his full potential yet. If there are multiple defensemen going ahead of Hutson, I'm taking a very hard look at moving him ahead of them.
At 50, I'm not waiting around. Give me the apple orchard.
Victor Hedman - Tampa Bay Lightning
Speaking of what are we doing here. Hedman at an ADP of 177? Are you serious?
This is a future Hall of Famer, a top-10 defensemen in the league and one of the most proven offensive blueliners of his generation. Yes, he was hurt last season. Yes, he only played 33 games and finished with 17 points. But one injury-plagued season should not erase a decade of elite production.
Hedman was a point-per-game defensemen the previous season, putting up 66 points in 67 games. Before last season, he had produced at least 63 points in seven of the previous eight full seasons, including multiple 70-point campaigns. This is not a player who suddenly forgot how to play hockey.
And now we're being asked to believe that he belongs at 177? Come on!
If Hedman comes back healthy, he immediately becomes one of the most dangerous offensive defensemen available in the late rounds. He can still pile up assists, quarterback a powerplay and play enormous minutes for a Tampa Bay Lightning team that continues to have plenty of offensive firepower. The addition of John Carlson does create some uncertainty about how Tampa deploys its powerplay, but even with that consideration, the upside at this ADP is simply too good to ignore.
This is exactly where I want to take a swing. You're not spending a premium pick on Hedman and hoping he returns to form. You're spending a 177th overall pick on a player who has already been one of the best fantasy defensemen in hockey for years.
Maybe the injury changes things. Maybe the age eventually catches up. But I'm not going to let one bad season completely erase the player we've watched dominate for more than a decade.
At 177, I don't need certainty. I need upside. And Hedman has an absurd amount of it. Grab him early before someone else does.
Cole Hutson - Washington Capitals
Hutson at an ADP of 193 is absurdly low, especially in dynasty leagues. This is exactly the kind of player I want to take a gamble on late in a draft because the upside could be enormous, and we've already seen enough to know that he can play at the NHL level.
Hutson was brought into the Washington lineup late last season and immediately produced, recording 10 points in 14 games as a 19-year-old. He scored three goals and added seven assists, including five powerplay assists, while averaging more than 17 minutes per game.
That's a tiny sample, so I'm not going to pretend he's already a finished NHL star. But that's exactly why 193rd is so appealing. He got a taste of NHL hockey and didn't look overwhelmed. He held his own against men, produced offensively and earned meaningful minutes down the stretch.
And then there's the Hutson factor. His older brother Lane has already established himself as one of the most dynamic offensive defensemen in the NHL, and Cole has plenty of the same offensive instincts and skill that make Lane so dangerous. I'm not saying Cole is going to become his brother, but the talent is clearly there.
For dynasty leagues, this is where I really want to take the shot. At 193, you're not being asked to bet on a player who has never demonstrated anything at the professional level. You're betting on a 19-year-old who already stepped into the NHL and immediately showed he could contribute.
The ceiling is obviously much higher than what we're paying for, and that's what makes him so appealing. He may not become the franchise defensemen his brother has become, but if he develops into even a very good NHL offensive defensemen, this ADP will look ridiculous in a couple of years.
At 193, take the swing. This is the kind of dynasty gamble that can pay off in a very big way. If you're not moving him up your board, you are a fool. This draft pick is playing with house money and will pay off big. You heard it here at FSP first!