Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: National League Edition (May 24)
Taking a look at how National League closers are performing.
Welcome to the first edition of the FantasySP National League Closer Report! This will be a weekly series that keeps you posted on the constant changes in bullpen pecking orders across the league. As this is the first edition of the series, I will start by looking back over the first two months of the season, seeing who has established themselves as the top option for each NL team. Let’s get started!
Atlanta Braves
We start with one of the simpler situations in the NL: Raisel Iglesias is the Braves’ closer. He has 11 saves, the fourth most in the league, while no other Atlanta pitcher has more than one (A.J. Minter and Pierce Johnson).
It is worth noting that Iglesias has just 12 strikeouts in 18.1 innings for a 5.9 K/9, nearly 50% below his career average. He is also performing just okay in some other key areas: ERA, FIP, etc.
On the other hand, Minter, the only other Brave with multiple save opportunities, has blown three of his four chances on the season. Johnson, who returned from a brief stint on the IL thanks to elbow inflammation this week, does have very impressive metrics in a small sample (13 IP), so he may be a dark horse threat to Iglesias, but there is no indication that the Braves are looking to make a change.
Miami Marlins
Tanner Scott leads the Marlins with six saves in seven opportunities. Andrew Nardi is second on the team with four opportunities but is also a perfect four for four in blown saves. Scott has struggled with control, walking 18.9% of his batters faced, but makes up for it with a 100th percentile average exit velocity allowed.
He has an elite 1.71 ERA, and his 3.30 xERA is the best of Miami’s relievers, so his spot at the top of the pecking order is likely safe. It is worth noting that Miami may be using Scott in more of a high-leverage role than a traditional closer spot.
Across 25 appearances, Scott ranks sixth among all pitchers with a 2.22 average leverage index, and he has seen just 37% of the Marlins’ save opportunities. Given that the Marlins also rank just 21st in total save opportunities, you may want to look elsewhere if your only goal is to rack up saves.
New York Mets
Not long ago, this blurb would have looked very different. Edwin Diaz certainly wasn’t performing like his insanely dominant 2022 self after missing the entire 2023 season due to injury, but he was still solid. However, Diaz has allowed seven earned runs in his last three outings (2.1 innings), ballooning his ERA up to 5.50 from 2.30.
After his most disastrous appearance, allowing four runs and recording just one out against the Marlins on Saturday, manager Carlos Mendoza said that the former shutdown closer would take on a more “fluid” role … Diaz hasn’t appeared since. In the meantime, Reed Garrett is the only Met to record a save, as he went two innings without allowing a run with a one-run lead on Monday.
Garrett is an intriguing player, with a Statcast page full of red circles, including 99th percentile marks in both xERA (1.81) and strikeout rate (40.6%). But he also took a loss on Wednesday, and it remains to be seen if the Mets will use a traditional closer or more of a committee while waiting for Diaz to get his mojo back.
Both of these guys have high upsides (Garrett is racking up Ks while Diaz still has a very impressive 107 Pitching+), but this situation is definitely in flux.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have used a closer-by-committee approach to start the season, with the left-handed Jose Alvarado (nine saves in nine opportunities) and right-handed Jeff Hoffman (four saves in seven opportunities) carrying the bulk of the load. Alvarado has clearly had the better success in terms of converting save chances, but it’s actually Hoffman who leads in run prevention, with a 1.25 ERA to Alvarado’s 3.38.
Both have impressive underlying metrics, especially Hoffman, who ranks in the 95th percentile or higher in each of chase rate, whiff rate, K rate and xERA. Still, I expect the Phillies to continue using a committee approach to their ninth-inning duties for the foreseeable future.
Washington Nationals
This situation is about as clear-cut as it gets. Kyle Finnegan ranks second in all of MLB in terms of the share of his team’s save opportunities that he has handled, having taken the rubber for 15 of the Nationals’ 20 save situations. Finnegan has turned those 15 chances into 13 saves, posting a very impressive 1.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP along the way.
He does have a much higher 4.87 xERA, along with a concerningly high 15% walk rate, making him a potential sell-high candidate with regression likely on its way. On the other hand, it’s hard to argue with the success Finnegan has had thus far, and his role is as good as it gets.
The Nationals also don’t have anyone else particularly inspiring to turn to, as the rest of their bullpen has combined for five blown saves in five save chances, so his spot should be fairly secure.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are another team that seems to be using their top reliever in high-leverage situations instead of a traditional closer role.
Hector Neris has the second-highest average leverage index in the league at a very high 2.72 but actually trails Adbert Alzolay in save opportunities, seven to nine. Still, Neris is clearly the most valuable member of this bullpen, with six saves to Alzolay’s five and a 2.50 ERA through his 19 appearances (although he does have a higher xERA at 5.13).
Cincinnati Reds
Remember when I mentioned that Kyle Finnegan was second in the league with a 75% share of the Nationals’ total save opportunities? Well, Alexis Diaz is the name ahead of him, and it’s not even close. The Reds as a team have generated by far the fewest save opportunities in the league, just 11, but Diaz has been called on in all but one of those situations.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been particularly impressive, with a 6.27 ERA (3.95 xERA). Diaz has always struggled with control, walking over 12% of batters in each of his MLB seasons, but that number is up to 16% so far this year, while his K rate is down significantly to 23%. Diaz’s role is great, and likely secure for now, but his production and efficiency are leaving a lot to be desired.
Milwaukee Brewers
At first glance, the Brewers appear to be another closer-by-committee team, with each of Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps and Abner Uribe (who was demoted to AAA to start May) having seen at least five save opportunities. However, Megill has clearly taken the lead role since his return from the concussion IL, with seven of the team’s 11 saves since April 19.
Megill has been flat-out impressive, with a 1.98 ERA and a 31.5% K rate, albeit in a small sample of 13.2 innings. He is a valuable option … at least for now, as the return of Devin Williams, currently on IL with a back issue but projected to return in mid-July, could throw a wrench into the mix.
Pittsburgh Pirates
David Bednar is the Pirates’ closer, but he has had a very rough start to the season, with a 7.08 ERA across 20.1 innings.
On the bright side, Bednar’s xERA isn’t quite as bad at 4.29, he has still converted 10 of 13 save opportunities, and an impressive 109 Pitching+ shows he hasn’t necessarily taken a huge step back in terms of his stuff. Aroldis Chapman lurks in the wings, but Bednar is likely safe for now.
St. Louis Cardinals
Tied for the MLB lead with 15 saves, Ryan Helsley has been one of the best relievers in the country to start the season. With a 1.23 ERA backed up by a 1.22 xERA, a WHIP firmly under 1.00 at 0.86, and 24 Ks in 22 innings, he’s contributing excellently in non-save categories as well.
Some other Cardinals relievers, notably JoJo Romero (ERA 1.42) and Andrew Kittredge (ERA 2.21), have also performed admirably in terms of run prevention, but Helsley’s job is as safe as they come.
Arizona Diamondbacks
After starting the season on the IL with an oblique strain, Paul Sewald returned in early May to take over as the Diamondbacks’ closer. He has performed well since his return, with a 1.50 ERA on a 1.23 xERA, three saves in three opportunities, and a 27.3% K rate.
Kevin Ginkel served as Arizona’s ninth-inning option while Sewald was sidelined and is likely in line to take over if Sewald ever struggles or misses more time. However, Ryan Thompson has actually been arguably the most impressive member of the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, with a 0.84 ERA across 21.1 innings.
Thompson is not a traditional fireballing reliever, with below-MLB-average speeds on all three of his most-used pitches, but limits both walks and barrels to prevent damage. He is a nice sneaky pick to be the next man up, but this is Sewald’s job for now.
Colorado Rockies
With just nine saves team-wide on 15 opportunities, not to mention playing half their home games in notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field, the Rockies are not exactly a fantasy-friendly situation for relievers.
Making matters worse, there is no clear-cut lead closer here. Jalen Beeks leads the team in save opportunities but has an uninspiring 17.2% K rate and has blown two chances in the last two days. Justin Lawrence has two saves of his own, but his ERA is inflated at 4.79. I recommend staying away from this whole situation for fantasy purposes.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Evan Phillips served as the Dodgers’ main closer to start the season and was a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities, but he is currently on the IL with a hamstring issue. Prior to his injury, Phillips was very effective, with a sparkling 0.66 ERA (2.38 xERA) and a 30.9% K rate.
In his absence, Daniel Hudson has picked up the closer’s mantle but to less success (he is two of four in save chances over the last month, although he has a solid 2.70 ERA on the season). Phillips already seems to be on his way to eventually returning and can be expected to reclaim the closer role when he returns, but Hudson isn’t a bad stream in the meantime as the lead ninth-inning option on one of the league’s best teams.
San Diego Padres
Robert Suarez has been absolutely dominant for the Padres to start the season, with an ERA of 0.40 and 14 saves in 22.1 innings.
I don’t quite expect him to stick to that pace, but his 2.52 xERA is still great. He is undoubtedly one of the top fantasy options at the closer position.
San Francisco Giants
We finish with another relatively stable situation as the flame-throwing Camilo Doval is cemented in the ninth inning for the Giants. He has eight saves in nine opportunities on the season, to go with a 29.9% K rate. He does struggle with control at times, as indicated by his 16.1% walk rate, but it hasn’t hurt him too much with a 2.75 ERA.
The only other Giant to record a save on the season is submariner Tyler Rogers, who does have an impressive 2.19 xERA and would be my pick to be the next man up if Doval misses time.
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