Fantasy Football Week 12 Wide Receiver Who Should I Start?: Emeka Egbuka, Michael Wilson, and More
Comparing Emeka Egbuka to four wide receivers who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka seemed like a luxury pick when he was taken with the 19th overall pick. The Bucs already had a star in Mike Evans, a veteran returning from injury in Chris Godwin, and a second-year receiver in Jalen McMillan who found success as a rookie.
They likely knew that the injured Godwin would take some time to get back into the lineup (and no guarantee he would be full speed right away), but when McMillan suffered a neck injury before the season, Egbuka had an immediate role and looked like a Godsend. Then Evans missed several games, returned, and suffered a broken collarbone in his first game back.
Still leading the attack, Egbuka is a popular fantasy player, and with a tougher matchup against the Rams this week, that has the rookie's fantasy status in question. In kind, Egbuka has been showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at Egbuka and four receivers who he has been compared to often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams
Ebguka leads the Bucs in targets (85), receptions (45), receiving yards (717), and touchdowns (six), and no one is particularly close in any category other than TDs. He is on pace for 76.5 catches, 1,218.9 yards, and 10.2 touchdowns, a line that would put him on the radar as a potential WR1 in fantasy drafts next year.
Of course, the worries of too many mouths to feed will arise again, but that won't be a concern this week, as Egbuka is still the top guy, flanked by Tez Johnson, Sterling Shepard, and others. Godwin is expected to return, but given his struggles to stay healthy, I'm skeptical of trusting him in his first game back.
That's especially true in this matchup, as the Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt. They are closer to the middle in fantasy points given up to wide receivers, but that has more to do with volume, as the Rams have faced the fifth-most pass attempts per game.
This could turn into something of a shootout, which would benefit all fantasy players. If it doesn't, Egbuka is the guy most likely to still find success for the Bucs; he's been doing it all season. Egbuka is a WR2/3 this week, worthy of heavy consideration for your lineup.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay's receiving group has also been torn apart by injuries, as Doubs is the only WR to play all 10 games and catch more than 10 passes. They haven't felt it as bad as Tampa, but Christian Watson missed the first six games, and Jayden Reed has been on IR since getting hurt in Week 2, though he is progressing back.
Doubs and rookie Matthew Golden have been on the field the most, and Doubs leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. His four touchdowns are the tops among receivers (though injured tight end Tucker Kraft leads the team with six).
The Vikings have allowed the 10th-most yards per pass attempt but the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They have instead been beaten up by tight ends in the passing game, allowing fewer than 10 receptions per game to receivers.
Advice: Start Emeka Egbuka over Romeo Doubs. Egbuka is the better player, and though the matchup favors Doubs, it's not far enough in his favor to make up for Egbuka's superior play.
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
McMillan stands out as the top option in Carolina; he has around twice as many targets, receptions, and receiving yards as anyone else (or more) and leads the team with four touchdowns. This is a low-level passing game, but McMillan is the guy who finds production.
The 49ers started better, but injuries have ripped through this defense, leaving them without their best players and stretching their depth. Over the full season, San Fran has given up the 14th-most yards per pass attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, making this a middling-or-better matchup.
Advice: This is a tough one, as Egbuka and McMillan are both the top option on their respective team right now, Egbuka has the better quarterback, and McMillan has the better matchup. That makes it a 50/50 call, but I'll give the slight advantage to McMillan here.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Olave is essentially the last man standing, as the Saints traded Rashid Shaheed to Seattle at the deadline and are in the process of releasing Brandin Cooks, though there are some snags on that front. That leaves Olave leading the way with tight end Juwan Johnson and running back Alvin Kamara, though this is a low-level offense with rookie Tyler Shough under center and the lack of playmakers.
Atlanta is another team that started hot against the pass but has been much worse recently, now allowing the eighth-most yards per pass attempt while sitting right in the middle in fantasy points given up to WRs. Even middling passing teams have found success against the Falcons recently, like the Dolphins and Panthers.
Advice: Start Emeka Egbuka over Chris Olave. I don't trust anything about New Orleans' offense, and while the matchup is a positive one, Atlanta was better early in the season, leaving Olave with a bit of a lower floor.
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Wilson had a huge game last week, catching 15 of 18 targets for 185 yards. While that's great, Arizona was losing within the first 16 seconds of the game and spent most of the contest down multiple scores. Jacoby Brissett threw 57 passes, completing an NFL-record 47 of them.
That volume won't always be there, and that leaves Wilson more as a middling fantasy player at best. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out again after having his appendix removed, so Wilson will again lead the receiving corps, though Trey McBride is their top pass catcher.
Jacksonville has allowed the 10th-fewest yards per pass attempt and the 14th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, sitting right in the middle overall. Their most talent is on the defensive line, which helps against the pass, but the secondary isn't as good, making the Jags a little vulnerable.
Advice: Start Emeka Egbuka over Michael Wilson. Egbuka is the much better player, and Wilson is unlikely to repeat last week's big performance (or anything close to it).
