Fantasy Football Week 12 Running Back Start/Sit: Emanuel Wilson, Kenneth Walker and More
Ted Chmyz goes over the running backs you can trust and those you can't in this Week 12 fantasy football start/sit breakdown.
Welcome to Week 12's fantasy football start/sit breakdown for the running back position! Shoutout to the wonderful Morgan Rode for filling in for me last week, as I was ironically out with an ankle injury of my own.
With that in mind, I'll go back an extra week for my usual review of previous results, and I'll keep it brief (who even remembers what happened in Week 10?). Start side: Kyle Monangai — mediocre (8.8 half-PPR points), Kimani Vidal — excellent (17.3), Aaron Jones Sr. — great (14.4). Sit side: Alvin Kamara — miss (13), Chuba Hubbard — nailed it (two), Breece Hall — I'm an idiot (19). Without further ado, let's dive into Week 12.
For more help with your toughest Week 12 start/sit decisions, check out FantasySP's NFL Start/Sit tool!
Running Backs to Start Week 12
Emanuel Wilson, Green Bay Packers
This is a tough week for running back rankings. It seems as though half the backfields in the league have at least one player who is genuinely questionable (usually with an ankle injury). This early in the week, we are left reading the tea leaves of practice reports and coachspeak to determine who will be available.
Based on the currently available information, I expect Josh Jacobs to miss the Packers' Week 12 contest with a knee injury — in his absence, Wilson is a borderline must-start.
If last week was any indication, Wilson should see elite usage with Jacobs out. The 2023 UDFA recorded 11 attempts and one target on 36 snaps. Chris Brooks, the team's remaining active running back, saw just one attempt on five snaps. This probably isn't a perfect representation of how the team will play if Jacobs is sidelined from the jump, but that's genuinely elite usage.
And when it comes to running back fantasy production, usage is king. The bell-cow on an efficient, run-heavy Green Bay offense is a fantasy gold mine, no matter what it says on the back of their jersey. In an average-ish matchup with the Vikings, Wilson is a borderline RB1 with Jacobs out.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Let's stick with the same NFC North showdown for another start. This one is honestly pretty straightforward. Since his return from injury, Jones has been a legit bell-cow for the Vikings. It was slightly hidden in his first two weeks back, as the first was a blowout and he suffered a new shoulder injury in the second, but it has become exceedingly clear in the last two weeks.
Since Week 10, Jones has played 70% of the Vikings' offensive snaps. He has handled 71% of their backfield rush attempts (including the only available goal-line carry) and racked up 11 targets (a 15% share) on a 56% route participation rate.
That's enough work to make him a legit RB2, even in a theoretically tough matchup with the Packers' defense.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy managers of Walker are understandably frustrated with his usage this season, as he mas mostly been stuck in 50/50 committee with Zach Charbonnet. But things seem to be trending in the right direction for the explosive fourth-year back.
Last week against the Rams, he posted his third-highest snap share, third-highest rush share, and tied for his highest target total of the season. After the game, Seahawks head coach Mike said that he was “showing that he deserves some more opportunities.”
A potentially expanded role comes at the perfect time for Walker, as the Seahawks have a very soft matchup with the Titans this season. Tennessee's defense is actually fine against the run on a per-carry basis, but their terrible offense means they still allow the seventh-most points per game to opposing backs.
The Seahawks are massive 13.5-point favorites, so there should be work to go around even if Walker's role doesn't expand. He's a solid starting option with excellent upside and a higher floor than normal.
Running Backs to Sit Week 12
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
It seemed for a week as though Tracy would actually play second fiddle to Devin Singletary in the Giants' backfield following Cam Skattebo's injury, but the sophomore RB has re-established himself as the team's top back over the last two weeks. However, this is still a relatively even split.
In fact, Singletary actually absolutely dominates the most important touches for fantasy football, those near the goal-line. Unless he breaks a big play, Tracy isn't likely to hit pay dirt. And he isn't likely to get there on volume this week either, as the Giants are 10.5-point underdogs on the road in Detroit.
The Lions' defense also allows the second-fewest points per game to opposing backs, making this matchup even tougher. Tracy is still technically a starting back, so he's not a must-bench. But I wouldn't feel at all confident starting him, so managers should definitely consider other options if they have them.
Rachaad White/Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tucker had a massive breakout game against the Bills last week, scoring three touchdowns en route to an RB1 overall finish. This game didn't come out of nowhere, either, as it was the culmination of a trend in which he had been steadily cutting into White's rushing workload with Bucky Irving sidelined.
Irving has been practicing on a limited basis recently. If he returns, this backfield will be very crowded, and this pick is a no-brainer. However, there are some early indications that Irving will be out at least one more week — even if that is confirmed, I still don't love either of these Tampa Bay backs for Week 12.
Even with his big game last week, Tucker is not going to fully take over this backfield. At the very least, White is a genuine positive on passing downs and should remain the team's primary receiving back. In the most likely outcome, we are left with a classic ugly committee where one guy is the goal-line RB and primary rusher (Tucker), while the other (White) also sees enough rushing work to be annoying and dominates passing downs.
In some situations, especially on top-tier offenses, this split can result in both backs being fantasy-viable. But the Buccaneers' offense isn't closer to mediocre than elite this season, ranking 16th in EPA per play (turnovers excluded) and 23rd in success rate. They also have a brutal matchup this week against the Rams' defense, which has allowed the third-fewest points per game to opposing backs.
Put it all together, and I recommend avoiding both Buccaneers' backs this week.
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
Disclaimer: I don't feel great about this one, as Jeanty is an incredibly talented young back, and the Raiders are actually favorites for once. But, with the number of injury-riddled backfields in the NFL right now, there really aren't that many backs to choose from. I'd rather take a risk with a bold call than do something safe and unhelpful like recommend benching Nick Chubb (for the record, please don't play Chubb this week).
And there are real reasons to be worried about the first-round rookie this week. The Browns' defense has been elite against the run all season, allowing the fifth-fewest points to running backs despite being handcuffed to a truly dreadful offense.
Meanwhile, the Raiders' O-line is truly terrible. We just saw Jeanty manage only seven yards on six carries against the Cowboys' not-so-elite defense — on those six carries, he averaged negative 0.63 yards before contact. The volume should be there for Jeanty this week, but the efficiency probably won't. That makes him a riskier play than you might think at first glance.