Fantasy Football Week 10 Wide Receiver Who Should I Start? Tetairoa McMillan, Stefon Diggs, and More
Comparing Tetairoa McMillan to four players who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Rookie Tetairoa McMillan has shown the upside that made him a top-10 pick this year, picking up at least four receptions and 50 yards in five of his nine games. There's no questioning his physical talent; McMillan looks like a WR1.
He isn't in a great situation, though, and that makes it tough to predict his fantasy outlook some weeks. Bryce Young has been a below-average quarterback his entire career, and without much offensive line or skill talent around McMillan, opposing defenses can key on the young receiver.
McMillan has been showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool as fantasy owners try to determine his place in the pass-catching hierarchy in Week 10.
Let's look at McMillan and four players who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We will do a head-to-head quick hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
McMillan ranked among the top 25 fantasy wide receivers in both standard and PPR scoring heading into Week 10. He hasn't had his bye yet, but McMillan has shown that he is a player to consider every week, though the matchup still matters.
He ranks far ahead of the rest of his team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards; McMillan is the clear top man for the Panthers. It's more about what the passing game can accomplish each week rather than whether McMillan will be involved.
The Saints present a positive matchup if not a great one. They have given up the eighth-most yards per pass attempt while ranking a little worse than average in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. I feel good about players against New Orleans, but volume has been an issue, as teams haven't been throwing much while beating up on the Saints.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings vs. Baltimore Ravens
Addison played his first game with quarterback J.J. McCarthy last week, catching two passes for 48 yards and adding a 16-yard carry. Addison has looked good after missing the first three games due to suspension, but we haven't seen him much with his starting QB, so it's worth monitoring; he is likely to still be involved enough to have fantasy value most weeks.
The Ravens are right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. That worse fantasy performance comes from volume and touchdowns, as WRs have averaged 160.4 yards per game with 10 TDs.
Advice: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Jordan Addison. This one is really close, but I'll give McMillan the advantage as Carolina's top receiver, while Addison has more competition for targets.
Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Diggs leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, though his two touchdowns are either behind or tied with four other Patriots. Quarterback Drake Maye has shown great growth in his second season and is spreading the ball to different targets, including less accomplished players than Diggs, but the veteran has still been the guy getting the most volume.
Tampa Bay has allowed the 12th-most yards per pass attempt but the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. It's fair to call them a middling pass defense, not necessarily a team to target but also not one to be afraid of.
Advice: Start Stefon Diggs over Tetairoa McMillan. New England's passing game is just so much better than Carolina's, so with both teams have decent matchups, I'll take the top receiver on the more explosive passing team.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Shakir is probably Buffalo's WR1, though some would make the case for Keon Coleman and even tight end Dalton Kincaid. There is no true WR1 in the way we think of with guys like McMillan and Diggs, but with a playmaker like Josh Allen at quarterback, there's always a chance for any pass catcher to come away with a big play.
The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most yards per pass attempt, but they have given up the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, a curious mix. That better fantasy performance is all about volume, as Miami has seen the fewest targets, receptions, and receiving yards per game from opposing receivers. Teams have been efficient but at a low volume when throwing to WRs.
Advice: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Khalil Shakir. I'm intrigued by Buffalo's pass catchers in this one, but receivers haven't been great in fantasy against the Dolphins (even if it's more about volume), and it's hard to know who the top pass catcher will be each week for the Bills.
Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Injuries and a trade have shaken up the depth chart in Jacksonville, as Travis Hunter is on IR, Brian Thomas Jr. is out for this game, and Jakobi Meyers was added earlier in the week before the trade deadline.
Washington leads healthy players in targets, receptions, and receiving yards for the Jaguars, but Meyers' arrival will be the thing standing in his way from clear top receiver status. Even though Meyers is new, he is much more accomplished, so it throws doubt into who will see the ball most.
The Texans also offer a brutal matchup, as they have given up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Houston has had one of the best pass defenses in football for a few years now and isn't a group to test out with anyone but the best.
Advice: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Parker Washington (and Jakobi Meyers, for that matter).
