Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections and Waiver Wire Options: Nick Chubb, Rashid Shaheed and More

The NFL regular season kicks off later this week!

With that in mind, let's go over some week 1 fantasy football projections. We will only cover players with an own percentage below 90.

Check out fantasy football projections on FantasySP all season.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love is projected for 18 fantasy points this week. He's rostered in 76% of fantasy leagues right now.

He will take on the Lions in week 1. Love was banged up last season and is dealing with an injury to start this season - he's not expected to be limited, or miss any games at this point.

Love had 479 passing yards, one touchdown and one interceptions across two games against Detroit in 2024. He added 23 rushing yards on seven attempts.

Jared Goff is also set for 18 points this week, but is owned in 85% of leagues.

Of course, he'll be taking on the new-look Packers' defense in week 1. Goff was great during the regular season last year, but now has a new offensive coordinator, so everyone is anxious to see how this offense will look.

He threw for 428 yards, four touchdowns and one interceptions across his two games against Green Bay last season. Goff had five rushing yards on seven attempts.

Justin Fields (86% rostered) is set for 17 points against the Steelers. Russell Wilson (5%) is projected for 17 points against the Commanders.

Matthew Stafford (37%) and Tua Tagovailoa (35%) are each set for 16 fantasy points this week. Stafford faces the Texans, while Tagovailoa will take on the Colts.

Running Backs

You won't find many highly-projected running backs available on the waiver wire most weeks. That's especially true in week 1.

Nick Chubb is projected for 11 PPR fantasy points against the Rams in week 1. He's owned in 84% of leagues.

He figures to lead the Houston backfield with Joe Mixon out of action. Chubb only has played 10 games over the past two seasons, and was brought in to be a secondary back, but gets the chance to lead the way early in the season.

This will be Chubb's first game on a team other than the Browns. He's past his prime, but is still capable of producing decent numbers. 

Jerome Ford (68%) is set for 11 fantasy points against the Bengals.

He's expected to lead the backfield in week 1, and could for a while with Quinshon Judkins still un-signed. Ford has been an OK fantasy option while filling in for Chubb over the past couple years, but the team drafted two running backs, so they clearly don't see him as a long-term asset.

Ford is a sneaky good fantasy option in the short term though. We'll see how improved the Bengals' defense is from a year ago.

Tank Bigsby (86%), Dylan Sampson (47%) and Austin Ekeler (88%) are all set for 10 PPR points this week. Bigsby faces the Panthers, while Sampson goes up against the Bengals. Ekeler has a game against the Giants.

Wide Receivers

There's a few more fantasy wideouts with double-digit fantasy projections who are also waiver wire options.

Christian Kirk is owned in 47% of leagues and is projected for 12 PPR points against the Rams this week.

He's expected to start alongside Nico Collins and rookie Jayden Higgins. I see Kirk as the third-best wideout in that group, but as a primary slot receiver, Kirk could rack up some fantasy points, especially in PPR leagues.

Kirk is in his first season with the Texans. He only played in eight games last year and 12 the year before that. For now, Kirk is an underrated fantasy option, but a lot of fantasy owners are going to want to see him deliver before adding and streaming him.

Rashid Shaheed (74%) and Josh Downs (79%) are each set for 11 points this week. Shaheed takes on the Cardinals, while Downs will battle the Dolphins.

Shaheed is back and ready to go after only getting in six games last season. He'll start for the Saints' offense, which figures to be one of the worst units in the league this season.

With Spencer Rattler at quarterback, it's tough to trust any of the Saints' pass catchers. Like Kirk, most will want to see Shaheed deliver before they feel comfortable adding and streaming him.

Downs will be looking to build on a pretty good 14-game season from 2024. He has a new QB (Daniel Jones) throwing to him, which is holding him back from being owned in more fantasy leagues.

Downs could be the team's top wide receiver this season. He has to deal with Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell, along with tight end Tyler Warren.

I like Downs over Shaheed and Kirk this week, but there's other receivers I'm about to mention that feel like safer fantasy plays, even if they are rostered in way fewer leagues. 

Adam Thielen (50%), DeMario Douglas (23%) and Wan'Dale Robinson (28%) are all set for 10 points this week. Thielen takes on the Bears, while Douglas faces the Raiders and Robinson goes up against the Commanders.

Tight Ends

Of course, there's not many even somewhat available fantasy tight ends this early in the season.

Dallas Goedert is the only one projected for double-digit PPR points. He's set for 10 points in a matchup against the Cowboys.

He figures to be the team's No. 3 pass-catching option behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert only played in 10 games last season, and hasn't been over 14 games since 2021.

I think he's a solid fantasy asset for week 1, and is an underrated fantasy player for the season. We'll see if he can stay healthy and put up some big numbers.

Kyle Pitts Sr. (78%), Hunter Henry (59%), Chig Okonkwo (25%) and Jake Ferguson (82%) are all set for nine PPR points this week. Pitts is going up against the Buccaneers, while Henry faces the Raiders. Okonkwo takes on the Broncos, and Ferguson battles the Eagles.

Defense/Special Teams

I'm not going to get super in-depth with the D/ST or K spots, but I'm at least going to mention some highly-projected units and players.

The Bengals' D/ST is projected for eight fantasy points against the Browns. Cincy's defense really struggled in 2024, but this appears to be a fantastic matchup for that unit to kick off 2025. The Bengals' D/ST could be a sneaky good fantasy asset this week.

The Commanders' D/ST is also projected for eight fantasy points. They will face the Giants in week 1.

I am not as down on the Giants' offense as some are, and am not a huge fan of the Commanders' D/ST in week 1. They could deliver average-or-better results, but I'm not all in on them as a streaming option.

The Patriots (48%), Packers (47%), Chiefs (53%), Chargers (34%), Texans (85%) and Bears (13%) are all projected for seven points this week. 

New England faces Las Vegas, while Green Bay takes on Detroit. The Chiefs and Chargers square off against each other. Houston takes on the LA Rams, while Chicago battles Minnesota.

Kickers

Younghoe Koo is projected for 10 fantasy points against the Buccaneers this week. Koo is rostered in just 19% of leagues. That 10-point projection is the highest for kickers this week, at least so far.

Jake Elliott (66%) is projected for nine points against the Cowboys.

Tyler Loop is set for nine points against the Bills, while Chase McLaughlin is projected for nine points against the Falcons. Evan McPherson is another kicker at nine projected points - he will be kicking against the Browns.