Fantasy Football Week 7 D/ST Start/Sit: 49ers, Colts, Jaguars

Welcome to this Week 7's fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! As always, let’s start by taking a look back at last week’s results. My three Start picks last week were excellent, with the Texans (14 points), Chargers (seven) and Buccaneers (17) all ranking in the top 10 fantasy defenses.

On the Sit side, the Browns also cracked the top 10 with an eight-point outing, but the Ravens (five points) and Jets (one point) both landed outside the top 12. Overall, that’s an excellent week, and I would happily take similar results every week for the rest of the season. At the very least, let’s hope we can stay hot this week! 

For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

I already talked about the Bengals in my Week 7 DST Streaming Recommendations, so I am going to keep this one relatively short. The Browns’ offense was already one of the worst in the league, and it received a massive downgrade this week with the departure of Amari Cooper. 

With Cooper in Buffalo and Jerome Ford likely out with a hamstring injury, the Browns have a grand total of five offensive touchdowns left on their roster. That’s less than the number of sacks Deshaun Watson averages per week. The Bengals’ defense isn’t great, but I don’t care — any team against Cleveland’s offense is a must-start.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Next up, we’ve got another team that was already featured in my streaming recommendations. Clearly not enough people are reading those, as the Rams are still projected to be started in less than 10% of fantasy leagues for Week 7. 

That number should be much higher, as the Rams’ defense is in an excellent spot against the Raiders this week. To pick a few key stats from my full breakdown in the streaming article: Vegas has the third-worst offense in the league with -0.20 EPA per play. They also turn the ball over at the third-highest rate in the league. Aidan O’Connell has the lowest yards per attempt against pressure at just 3.3, while the Rams lead the league in hurry rate at 14%. The Rams are a top-five option this week against this woeful Raiders offense. 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots

Okay, I promise this is the last short blurb because I already talked about a team in that streaming article. Once again, the key to this play is matchup, matchup, matchup. In Drake Maye’s NFL debut, the Texans’ defense took advantage of the third-overall pick to the tune of 14 fantasy points. 

The rookie’s 27.3% pressure-to-sack rate is the fifth-highest among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks, while the Patriots’ offensive line gives up pressure on an absurd 43.9% of dropbacks. Put those two numbers together, and we can expect Maye to be sacked on 12% of his dropbacks in a given game. If he drops back 30 times, that’s three and a half free fantasy points for the Jaguars’ defense. Combine that with the fact that the Patriots are second-worst in offensive EPA per play, and this is a no-brainer spot to start the Jaguars, even if they are arguably the worst defense in the league.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins

The Patriots may be second-worst in EPA per play, but they are still solidly ahead of the Dolphins, who bring up the rear at an absurdly terrible -0.24 EPA per play. The Dolphins’ once-explosive offense also ranks dead last with 12 points per game, nearly two full points behind any other team. They have scored on under a quarter of their offensive drives, again the worst in the league.

Now, the Colts’ defense isn’t very good, giving up the third-most yards per game to opposing offenses. To be fair, that is partially because their offense plays so fast, as they rank second in plays against … but that’s not changing any time soon. Still, it really is hard to overstate how toothless Miami’s offense has been without Tua Tagovailoa. The Colts are projected to be started in under a third of leagues, but I would play them over any of the upcoming three defenses, all of which are widely started. 

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 7

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers

The Texans were just one of the defensive plays of the week against the Patriots, and they have been very good overall to start the season. Houston’s defense ranks in the top five in both yards per play and total yards allowed. However, they rank closer to average in preventing scoring, 10th in EPA per play and 16th in straight-up points per game. 

This won’t serve them well in a matchup with the Packers, who rank near the top of the league in most offensive categories despite having played two games with Malik Willis under center. If we look just at Green Bay’s games with Jordan Love under center, defenses against them have scored zero, three, 10, and negative two fantasy points, as Love’s league-leading 2.67% sack rate goes a long way to keeping opponents from racking up points. The only team to score more than three fantasy points against a Love-led team, the Rams, relied on a pick-six to get there. The Texans should not be started on the road in Lambeau this week.  

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Ravens keep appearing in the Sit section of this article, and it’s really not their fault. Baltimore has an above-average defense, but they have had some tough matchups to start the season. This week, they get the Bucs, who are averaging nearly 30 points per game on over 350 yards. The only silver lining to this matchup is that Baker Mayfield is taking almost three sacks per game, but that isn’t enough to make up for the amount of points Tampa is likely to score in any given week.

Baltimore, likely because of their reputation as a stellar defensive team, is currently being started in 42% of leagues. If you are one of those managers with the Ravens’ defense, this is your sign to start searching the wavier wire for a better option. It might be worth holding Baltimore for next week, as they get a matchup with the sadness factory the Browns call an offense. For this week, though, leave the Ravens on your bench.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The 49ers are currently being started in 78% of leagues for this Super Bowl rematch. Even as a 49ers fan myself, I can’t get behind that. For one, the 49ers’ defense isn’t as good this season as they have been in recent years (this is one of the issues with reaching on a defense in fantasy football drafts). They rank outside the top 10 defenses in each of EPA per play, points per game, and yards per game.

For another … Patrick Mahomes. It is true that the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t exactly been explosive this season, scoring an essentially average 23.6 points per game. Mahomes himself has also had a few truly baffling turnovers and has the third-highest interception rate of any qualified quarterback ... but he’s still Patrick Mahomes. 

Perhaps this is my Super Bowl PTSD talking, but I am fully confident that Mahomes could drop 40 points with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kareem Hunt as his top weapons if that is what is necessary to win this game. With so many widely available streaming options, it’s simply not worth starting a defense against the best QB in the league. 

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