These 4 Waiver Wire Starting Pitchers Can Jumpstart Your Fantasy Baseball Week
Four starting pitchers with good matchups on Monday who are widely available in fantasy leagues.
MLB's trade deadline is one week from today. Only three teams in each league are more than 5.5 games back from a Wild Card spot, so the next week of games will go a long way toward determining the deadline fate for a lot of franchises.
The Tigers are a great example: Tarik Skubal has been assumed to be on the move after Detroit's terrible start, but the Tigers sit just 3.5 back in the Wild Card and six back in the AL Central, so keeping one of the best pitchers in the league might be prudent. If they lose five of six before next Monday, though, then Skubal is much more likely to find a new home for the final two months.
Moving to fantasy baseball, let's look at four starting pitchers in action on Monday who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups. Most stats are from MLB.com, as are the probable starters. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.
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Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto's season-long numbers show a team that has been OK with hits but has no power, leaving them with the fewest runs scored of any team. They have been among the worse offenses in baseball over the past month, ranking in the bottom five in essentially every box stat. They don't strike out much, but the Blue Jays also don't draw many walks, counting on the ball to cooperate when it's in play; that hasn't been the case often enough.
Alvarez has worked in a variety of roles, including as a starter, reliever, and bulk pitcher taking over after an opener. He has mostly been fine, doing average work limiting hits and runs, walking a few too many guys, and holding a strikeout rate a bit above average. Most impressively, Alvarez has allowed just two home runs in 53 1/3 innings, a phenomenal rate (and he only gave up one in 23 1/3 innings last year). Alvarez is fine to consider, though he has only reached five innings once.
Alvarez is a low-to-mid-level streamer. There's a little upside for a young pitcher, and his strikeout work is good, but he has mostly topped out as average overall. Given his shorter stints, Alvarez is also unlikely to pick up a win if he starts rather than entering after an opener.
Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Cecconi has been a little worse than average this season, matching his career work by doing fine with walks but worse than average with strikeouts and allowing hits and runs. He's also doing average work limiting home runs, a place where he struggled previously in his career. After a very good June, Cecconi has struggled mightily in three July starts: 13 1/3 innings, 22 hits, and 15 runs (11 earned). His BBs and Ks were fine, but Cecconi is getting hit way too hard this month.
We talked yesterday about how the Reds have done well drawing walks and hitting home runs but not much else. That can be the baseline of a successful offense, but Cincinnati isn't doing nearly enough elsewhere, ranking in the bottom five in both runs and hits. In fact, the team ranks dead last in both hits and batting average, not putting together enough base runners before those big shots. Add in their top-five strikeout rate, and the Reds are a strong opponent for opposing pitchers.
Cecconi is a low-to-mid-level streamer. The matchup is right, but Cecconi has been average at best in any area and worse than that recently.
Martin Perez, Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
The 35-year-old Perez has surprisingly put up good numbers most of the season. He walks just a few too many hitters and has a below-average strikeout rate, but Perez has been very effective limiting hits, runs, and home runs. After a stretch of rougher outings in late June and early July, Perez spent time on the IL and returned to throw four shutout innings on Wednesday, allowing just one hit but also four walks.
The Mets' season-long numbers show them as one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking in or near the bottom five in most box stats. They have the second-worst record in the National League and the third worst in all baseball, clearly seeing the effects of their impotent offense. Over the past month, New York has been closer to the middle, but they still stand out as a bottom group overall. We will keep targeting the Mets whenever we can.
Perez is a low-to-mid-level streamer. Though his work has been very good this year, it's more likely that he regresses to the middle than continues to shine. With a lack of strikeouts and probably a shorter start in line, Perez brings a little more risk than it might seem from an initial glance.
Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Seattle and Texas are fighting for the top of the division, and the Rangers won the first two games of this series before the Mariners came back late to win yesterday. Seattle's offense is a major part of their middling overall performance, as they rank in the bottom five (or very close to it) in runs, hits, doubles, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They generally benefit from playing on the road, but Texas houses one of the few parks that's just as tough on hitters as T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Rocker has been very average this season in about all areas, sitting near the middle with walks, strikeouts, hits, runs, and home runs. He has more strikeout upside given his pedigree and work in both college and the minor leagues, but Rocker hasn't shown that at the highest level. He is coming off a sparkling outing against the White Sox, when he threw six scoreless innings with just one hit allowed, but that came after a start against the Astros when he gave up eight hits, seven runs, and three homers in 5 2/3 innings. This one is likely to end up somewhere between.
Rocker is a mid-level streamer. I might be a little too generous here, but Rocker has more upside that he should eventually find, and the matchup here is heavily in his favor. Seattle also strikes out right around a top-10 rate, setting a decent ceiling.
Monday's Streamer Rankings
- Kumar Rocker, TEX
- Andrew Alvarez, WSH
- Martin Perez, ATL
- Slade Cecconi, CLE