2023 Fantasy Baseball Busts: Steer Clear of Xander Bogaerts, Anthony Rizzo, and Clayton Kershaw
It’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report to camp – which means we’re officially in Spring Training season! As a fantasy nut whose first love was fantasy baseball, this is my favorite time of the year. I grew up using fantasy magazines that were printed months before my draft and were obviously outdated by the time I was picking my players. Luckily, we’ve moved way beyond that and can find up-to-date information right before we settle in with our draft spreadsheets.
We’ll still need to keep an eye on Spring Training news since it’s only mid-February, but it’s never too early to start getting familiar with the player names we’ll be staring at on our spreadsheets on draft day. Matt Brandon did a great job looking at who might bust out in his 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers column last week, and now I get to be the Negative Nelly and tell you who I think is going to be a 2023 Fantasy Baseball Bust.
Let’s take a spin through each positional area and identify the players who you should be crossing off your draft lists.
Catcher
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
I’ll be honest and say that I’m usually of the mind that you shouldn’t bother drafting a catcher until the end of your draft. They just aren’t that much of a differentiator unless you’re targeting one of the elite guys – and I’d much rather use my earlier draft picks on a stud infielder/outfielder or stud pitcher. So in a way, there’s really no way to have a “bust” catcher if you just wait until the end of your draft.
That said, you can go very wrong taking a catcher too early. And for me, Will Smith is a great example of that. To get Smith on your fantasy baseball team, you’ll likely have to take him with your fourth or fifth pick. That’s just way too early, and you’ll be passing up some lineup centerpieces in order to do so.
While Smith is one of the better fantasy catchers you can draft, he’s probably not going to hit more than 25-28 home runs and he’s unlikely to top 100 RBIs while hitting around .260-.270. Is that what you want with one of your top picks when you can take a flier on someone like Danny Jansen or William Contreras or Jonah Heim? Could one of those guys bust? Maybe. Probably? But you won’t have spent a top pick on him. Will Smith is a good player, but he’s just not worth his draft capital.
Corner Infield
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees
I don’t know where the years went, but Anthony Rizzo is 33. He saw a bit of a resurgence last year in hitting 32 home runs with the Yankees, but it came at a cost with a .224 batting average. Could Rizzo have found the fountain of youth in New York? Could he benefit from the new shift rules? Both questions have a very possible “yes” answer. But I also don’t like betting on a 33-year-old to be on the upswing after his three previous years were a downswing. Said another way: I think last year was the outlier.
I still think Rizzo could be a solid fantasy player, but my bust label is on him because of where he’s being drafted (in the 13-16 range among first baseman) with an ADP around 150. That’s just too high for a guy who is really only giving you home runs at this point in his career. You can find that type of production (albeit with perhaps fewer home runs) with later-round guys like Ryan Mountcastle or Wilmer Flores.
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Middle Infield
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres
Bogaerts is a player who is a much better real-life baseball player than a fantasy baseball player. He’s solid in that he won’t kill you in any categories, but he’s a little lackluster in that he won’t win any categories for you either. And while I like him a lot as a player, he’s just not worth his current ADP (which is around 85 currently).
While he’s still in the prime(ish) of his career, Bogaerts is coming off a year where he hit .307 (which is good) but with only 15 home runs (not so great) and 73 RBIs (also not so great). Again, that’s solid production that won’t kill your fantasy team, but it’s also not the type of upside that will win you your fantasy league either. I want upside with a top-100 player and Bogaerts just isn’t a huge upside guy. He’s a safe guy.
I’ll be passing on Bogaerts and taking a flier on players later in my drafts like Ezequiel Tovar, Nico Hoerner, and Thairo Estrada.
Outfield
Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
Suzuki is similar to Bogaerts to me (are you sensing a theme here?) in that he’s a safe, solid all-around player whose fantasy upside just doesn’t translate to his ADP. He’s currently being drafted right around the 133 mark as the 33rd outfielder off the board, but you’re paying a relatively premium price for a player who finished somewhere around OF40 last season with a .262 average, 14 home runs, 54 runs, 46 RBIs, and nine stolen bases. That’s not horrible, but it certainly isn’t top-100 production. And even if he improves by 25% on all of those numbers (which is a big ask, he’s still not a top-100 player.
As I’ve said a few times, I want upside with my top 10-ish picks. Not safety. I realize other strategies work in fantasy baseball, but that’s mine, and I just don’t want to spend my draft capital on players who have low ceilings. If you want Suzuki-esque numbers, you can just drop down about 100 picks and gets similar production from someone like Alex Verdugo. Or you could just wait until the end of your draft and take a complete flier on a player with more upside like Bryan De La Cruz or Christopher Morel.
DH/Utility
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I think Bryce Harper is an amazing baseball player. And an amazing fantasy baseball player. But do you really want to spend a top-100 pick on a player who might not play until after the All-Star Break?
If we put that into practice, that’s basically spending a top-100 pick for someone who might give us 15-20 home runs with a .280 average and 50 RBIs. That’s great and all, but you’re passing on a player who has the potential to put up 30 home runs and 80-90 RBIs. And this goes back to my theme of “it’s just not worth the draft capital.” Let someone else in your league go for the name-brand of Harper and use their top-100 pick on him.
Starting Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Call me crazy, but I just can’t stomach drafting a 35-year-old Clayton Kershaw in the top 100 – which is probably where you’ll need to draft him if you want him on your fantasy team. He had a great year last year. And he’s one of the best pitchers of my lifetime! But the wheels are going to fall off at some point, and I don’t want to be left holding the bag when they do.
After a rough 2021, I think last year was a bit of an aberration as Kershaw had a relatively low BABIP of .269 and only pitched 126.1 innings anyway. He’s obviously very capable of proving me wrong (and might inherit some wins he might otherwise not get by being on a great Dodgers team), but I’d rather pass on Kershaw here and take a hitter who I can use as a cornerstone of my lineup.
There are a ton of good high-upside pitchers out there this year, and Kershaw just isn’t worth the pick at such a high draft spot. You’re paying a premium for the name brand.
Relief Pitcher
Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox
I’ll almost never pay for saves, to begin with, but you’ll also never catch me paying for mid-tier saves. And that’s exactly what Jansen is. He’s not an elite closer like Spencer Strider. And he’s not a cheap end-of-draft flier either. He’s currently being drafted just outside the top 100 players as a top-10 closer, and that’s just way too much draft capital to be paying for a 35-year-old closer on a team that will have trouble winning 80 games this season.
I won’t downplay the fact that Jansen had 41 saves last year (good for second in the league), but he also had a 3.38 ERA and will have to compete with the pitch clock this season (he’s one of the slowest relief pitchers out there). Similar to Kershaw, the wheels are going to fall off Jansen at some point, and again, I don’t want to be the one left holding the bag. You’re much better off either going all-in for someone like Strider or just waiting until the end of your draft to grab a flier. Heck, you’ll likely be able to find 2-3 closers within the first month of the season if you pay attention to the waiver wire. The cost-benefit analysis just isn’t there for Jansen.
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