Fantasy Hockey Overrated Average Draft Positions | Roman Josi, Steven Stamkos and More
Shelmo breaks down some potential picks that are too high in their average draft position that you should skip over.
Hey folks, we are less than a month away from the NHL preseason and fantasy leagues are popping up all over the place. If you haven't started drafting in your leagues yet, you will be in the coming weeks.
Today we are going to talk about some not overrated but too highly ranked players on some ADP lists.
Let's dive right in!
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Roman Josi - Nashville Predators
Somehow, the consensus second-highest rated defenseman in the league is Josi. The 35-year-old veteran has a lot of red flags that we can discuss, and that's above and beyond the Smashville roster around him.
Firstly, Josi does not skate or hit like he used to. As previously stated, Josi is into the late stages of his 30s, and the way the NHL is going, it's more and more difficult to keep up with all the young superstars.
Further, this summer Josi was reported to be dealing with postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, which can causes headaches, dizziness, a fast heart rate and fatigue. Buyer beware here as we still don't have confirmation that Josi will be healthy for the start of the season, let alone training camp.
Is the former Norris Trophy defenseman still elite? Without a doubt. But should he be the second-highest ranked blueliner in this year's draft? Very unlikely.
Josi had nine goals, 29 assists, and 17 powerplay points in 53 games played as a defenseman. He also had 150 shots on goal, 42 hits, and 95 blocked shots. Also of note, he had an abysmal +/- rating of -26.
Steven Stamkos - Nashville Predators
I hate to pick on the Preds here, but...
Do we still think Stammers is a top-30 player in the league here? Especially in fantasy leagues? I would argue not. Many teams were outright dropping him last year, where he would sit and rot on waivers - maybe being picked up as a streamer, but in some cases not at all.
Stamkos seemed not to be able to find his groove last year with his new hockey club. At times during the season, he seemed to be a ghost, and not the impact player we were used to seeing him as with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Whether it be a lack of confidence, a slow adjustment to the systems in a new franchise, or a lack of spark after not being offered a contract with the team he won Stanley Cups with and called home for his entire career, Stamkos was a shell of his former self.
Yet somehow, he has cracked the top 30 in ESPN's ADP rankings at number 27. In larger leagues, this could mean you are spending a top-three pick on Stammers, likely hoping he comes back to form or off of name value alone. In my opinion, Stamkos is a mid-round pick and is still a gamble.
My prediction with him is many will still take him in high draft positions off of name brand value, and he will be traded before Christmas to another player who will hold hope that the drafter had but gave up on. Again, buyer beware here.
Stamkos had 27 goals, 26 assists, and 21 powerplay points in 82 games as a forward. He also had 174 shots on goal, 66 hits, and 46 blocked shots. Like teammate Josi, the same notable stat here was his +/-, which ended the season at a laughable -36. Yikes!
Alex Ovechkin - Washington Capitals
Hear me out! Did Ovi have a resurgence season last year? Yes. But he was also chasing the goal-scoring record. His team rallied around him while they all rode the wave of momentum that the countdown brought to the city, franchise, and league.
Ovi is projected to be drafted in the top 25 this season for fantasy league, and I genuinely think there is going to be the greatest goal scorer of all time hang over.
Don't get me wrong. I still think even at his age, he is going to put up 20 or more goals this season, however I believe his ADP is based on last year's surge and is very unlikely to repeat. His stats are likely to come back down to reality, which is still really, really good, especially for the second-oldest player in the league!
Ovi had 44 goals, 29 assists, and 22 powerplay points in 65 games as a forward. He also had 237 shots on goal, 110 hits, and 13 blocked shots.
Frank Vatrano - Anaheim Ducks
Vatrano seems to have jumped up this year in his ADP, ranging in some leagues in the top 50, and others hovering around 80. Last year, Vatrano regressed from a near 40-goal season the year before, however even with his 21-goal season, his spot on the roster and deployment is all but solidified.
Vatrano should not be in your top-100 picks, regardless of format or settings. He had one breakout year, and many people are still sold on him bringing back the magic of 2023.
The Ducks aren't a great team, but they are getting talent to join the roster who put his spot at risk. The Ducks signed Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund, who are his direct competition, and both are more proven during the regular and postseason.
Maybe Vatrano will find his game again, or he may end up being the next Jonathan Huberdeau. Either way, the risk highly outweighs the reward here. If you are from Anaheim, or are just a big Vatrano fan, let him drop to later rounds, or wait for someone to draft him high and pick him up before the trade deadline at a discount.
He will still probably put up around 20 goals, but look for his deployment to take a hit. He will still find himself on the second powerplay unit, and jump around the middle six, though.
Vatrano had 21 goals, 24 assists, and five powerplay points in 81 games played as a forward. He also had 234 shots on goal, 169 hits, and 69 blocked shots.